Abstract

Avian A/H5N1 influenza viruses pose a pandemic threat. As few as five amino acid substitutions, or four with reassortment, might be sufficient for mammal-to-mammal transmission through respiratory droplets. From surveillance data, we found that two of these substitutions are common in A/H5N1 viruses, and thus, some viruses might require only three additional substitutions to become transmissible via respiratory droplets between mammals. We used a mathematical model of within-host virus evolution to study factors that could increase and decrease the probability of the remaining substitutions evolving after the virus has infected a mammalian host. These factors, combined with the presence of some of these substitutions in circulating strains, make a virus evolving in nature a potentially serious threat. These results highlight critical areas in which more data are needed for assessing, and potentially averting, this threat.

Links

Publisher Full Text

Authors

Russell CA, Fonville JM, Brown AE, Burke DF, Smith DL, James SL, Herfst S, van Boheemen S, Linster M, Schrauwen EJ, Katzelnick L, Mosterín A, Kuiken T, Maher E, Neumann G, Osterhaus AD, Kawaoka Y, Fouchier RA, Smith DJ

Institution

Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.

Source

Science (New York, N.Y.) 336:6088 2012 Jun 22 pg 1541-7

MeSH

Adaptation, Physiological
Air Microbiology
Amino Acid Substitution
Animals
Birds
Evolution, Molecular
Genetic Fitness
Glycosylation
Hemagglutinin Glycoproteins, Influenza Virus
High-Throughput Nucleotide Sequencing
Humans
Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype
Influenza in Birds
Influenza, Human
Mammals
Models, Biological
Mutation
Orthomyxoviridae Infections
Probability
RNA Replicase
Receptors, Virus
Respiratory System
Selection, Genetic
Sialic Acids
Viral Proteins

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

22723414