Lipid-related markers and cardiovascular disease prediction.
The value of assessing various emerging lipid-related markers for prediction of first cardiovascular events is debated.
To determine whether adding information on apolipoprotein B and apolipoprotein A-I, lipoprotein(a), or lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 to total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) improves cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS
Individual records were available for 165,544 participants without baseline CVD in 37 prospective cohorts (calendar years of recruitment: 1968-2007) with up to 15,126 incident fatal or nonfatal CVD outcomes (10,132 CHD and 4994 stroke outcomes) during a median follow-up of 10.4 years (interquartile range, 7.6-14 years).
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES
Discrimination of CVD outcomes and reclassification of participants across predicted 10-year risk categories of low (<10%), intermediate (10%-<20%), and high (≥20%) risk.
The addition of information on various lipid-related markers to total cholesterol, HDL-C, and other conventional risk factors yielded improvement in the model's discrimination: C-index change, 0.0006 (95% CI, 0.0002-0.0009) for the combination of apolipoprotein B and A-I; 0.0016 (95% CI, 0.0009-0.0023) for lipoprotein(a); and 0.0018 (95% CI, 0.0010-0.0026) for lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 mass. Net reclassification improvements were less than 1% with the addition of each of these markers to risk scores containing conventional risk factors. We estimated that for 100,000 adults aged 40 years or older, 15,436 would be initially classified at intermediate risk using conventional risk factors alone. Additional testing with a combination of apolipoprotein B and A-I would reclassify 1.1%; lipoprotein(a), 4.1%; and lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 mass, 2.7% of people to a 20% or higher predicted CVD risk category and, therefore, in need of statin treatment under Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines.
In a study of individuals without known CVD, the addition of information on the combination of apolipoprotein B and A-I, lipoprotein(a), or lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 mass to risk scores containing total cholesterol and HDL-C led to slight improvement in CVD prediction.
Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, Di Angelantonio E, Gao P, Pennells L, Kaptoge S, Caslake M, Thompson A, Butterworth AS, Sarwar N, Wormser D, Saleheen D, Ballantyne CM, Psaty BM, Sundström J, Ridker PM, Nagel D, Gillum RF, Ford I, Ducimetiere P, Kiechl S, Koenig W, Dullaart RP, Assmann G, D'Agostino RB, Dagenais GR, Cooper JA, Kromhout D, Onat A, Tipping RW, Gómez-de-la-Cámara A, Rosengren A, Sutherland SE, Gallacher J, Fowkes FG, Casiglia E, Hofman A, Salomaa V, Barrett-Connor E, Clarke R, Brunner E, Jukema JW, Simons LA, Sandhu M, Wareham NJ, Khaw KT, Kauhanen J, Salonen JT, Howard WJ, Nordestgaard BG, Wood AM, Thompson SG, Boekholdt SM, Sattar N, Packard C, Gudnason V, Danesh J
SourceJAMA : the journal of the American Medical Association 307:23 2012 Jun 20 pg 2499-506
Pub Type(s)Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't