Abstract

BACKGROUND
Recovery from low back pain (LBP) is multidimensional and requires the use of multiple-response (outcome) measures to fully reflect these many dimensions. Predictive prognostic variables that are present or stable in all or most predictive models that use different outcome measures could be considered "universal" prognostic variables.
OBJECTIVE
The aim of this study was to explore the potential of universal prognostic variables in predictive models for 4 different outcome measures in patients with mechanical LBP.
DESIGN
Predictive modeling was performed using data extracted from a randomized controlled trial. Four prognostic models were created using backward stepwise deletion logistic, Poisson, and linear regression.
METHODS
Data were collected from 16 outpatient physical therapy facilities in 10 states. All 149 patients with LBP were treated with manual therapy and spine strengthening exercises until discharge. Four different measures of response were used: Oswestry Disability Index and Numeric Pain Rating Scale change scores, total visits, and report of rate of recovery.
RESULTS
The set of statistically significant predictors was dependent on the definition of response. All regression models were significant. Within both forms of the 4 models, meeting the clinical prediction rule for manipulation at baseline was present in all 4 models, whereas no irritability at baseline and diagnosis of sprains and strains were present in 2 of 4 of the predictive models.
LIMITATIONS
The primary limitation is that this study evaluated only 4 of the multiple outcome measures that are pertinent for patients with LBP.
CONCLUSIONS
Meeting the clinical prediction rule was prognostic for all outcome measures and should be considered a universal prognostic predictor. Other predictive variables were dependent on the outcomes measure used in the predictive model.

Links

Publisher Full Text

Authors

Cook CE, Learman KE, O'Halloran BJ, Showalter CR, Kabbaz VJ, Goode AP, Wright AA

Institution

Division of Physical Therapy, Walsh University, 2020 East Maple, North Canton, OH 44720, USA. ccook@walsh.edu

Source

Physical therapy 93:1 2013 Jan pg 32-40

MeSH

Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Decision Support Techniques
Disability Evaluation
Female
Humans
Linear Models
Logistic Models
Low Back Pain
Male
Middle Aged
Physical Therapy Modalities
Poisson Distribution
Predictive Value of Tests
Prognosis
Young Adult

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Randomized Controlled Trial

Language

eng

PubMed ID

22879443