| Title | A three-component biomarker panel for prediction of dengue hemorrhagic fever. | | Author(s) | Brasier AR, Ju H, Garcia J, Spratt HM, Victor SS, Forshey BM, Halsey ES, Comach G, Sierra G, Blair PJ, Rocha C, Morrison AC, Scott TW, Bazan I, Kochel TJ, Venezuelan Dengue Fever Working Group | | Institution | Department of Internal Medicine, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas, USA. arbrasie@utmb.edu | | Source | Am J Trop Med Hyg 2012 Feb; 86(2):341-8. | | MeSH | Adolescent
Adult
Biological Markers
Child
Child, Preschool
Decision Trees
Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever
Female
Follow-Up Studies
Humans
Interleukin-10
Logistic Models
Male
Multivariate Analysis
Platelet Count
Reproducibility of Results
Young Adult
| | Abstract | Dengue virus infections are a major cause of morbidity in tropical countries. Early detection of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) may help identify individuals that would benefit from intensive therapy. Predictive modeling was performed using 11 laboratory values of 51 individuals (38 DF and 13 DHF) obtained on initial presentation using logistic regression. We produced a robust model with an area under the curve of 0.9615 that retained IL-10 levels, platelets, and lymphocytes as the major predictive features. A classification and regression tree was developed on these features that were 86% accurate on cross-validation. The IL-10 levels and platelet counts were also identified as the most informative features associated with DHF using a Random Forest classifier. In the presence of polymerase chain reaction-proven acute dengue infections, we suggest a complete blood count and rapid measurement of IL-10 can assist in the triage of potential DHF cases for close follow-up or clinical intervention improving clinical outcome. | | Language | eng | | Pub Type(s) | Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
| | PubMed ID | 22302872 |
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