How much will the United States spend on health care during the next decade or two? The answer matters greatly to physicians, federal and state governments, businesses, and the general public. The answer will determine the type and extent of care that physicians can provide to their patients, as well as the amount of physicians' take-home pay. It will also determine how much everyone else can consume or invest in other goods and services. Unfortunately, forecasting health care spending is extremely difficult. Future spending depends in part on developments within the health care sector and in part on developments in . . .

Background During the spring of 2013, a novel avian-origin influenza A (H7N9) virus emerged and spread among humans in China. Data were lacking on the clinical characteristics of the infections caused by this virus. Methods Using medical charts, we collected data on 111 patients with laboratory-confirmed avian-origin influenza A (H7N9) infection through May 10, 2013. Results Of the 111 patients we studied, 76.6% were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU), and 27.0% died. The median age was 61 years, and 42.3% were 65 years of age or older; 31.5% were female. A total of 61.3% of the patients had at least one underlying medical condition. Fever and cough were the most common presenting symptoms. On admission, 108 patients (97.3%) had findings consistent with pneumonia. Bilateral ground-glass opacities and consolidation were the typical radiologic findings. Lymphocytopenia was observed in 88.3% of patients, and thrombocytopenia in 73.0%. Treatment with antiviral drugs was initiated in 108 patients (97.3%) at a median of 7 days after the onset of illness. The median times from the onset of illness and from the initiation of antiviral therapy to a negative viral test result on real-time reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction assay were 11 days (interquartile range, 9 to 16) and 6 days (interquartile range, 4 to 7), respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that the presence of a coexisting medical condition was the only independent risk factor for the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) (odds ratio, 3.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.21 to 9.70; P=0.02). Conclusions During the evaluation period, the novel H7N9 virus caused severe illness, including pneumonia and ARDS, with high rates of ICU admission and death. (Funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and others.).

Background Adenotonsillectomy is commonly performed in children with the obstructive sleep apnea syndrome, yet its usefulness in reducing symptoms and improving cognition, behavior, quality of life, and polysomnographic findings has not been rigorously evaluated. We hypothesized that, in children with the obstructive sleep apnea syndrome without prolonged oxyhemoglobin desaturation, early adenotonsillectomy, as compared with watchful waiting with supportive care, would result in improved outcomes. Methods We randomly assigned 464 children, 5 to 9 years of age, with the obstructive sleep apnea syndrome to early adenotonsillectomy or a strategy of watchful waiting. Polysomnographic, cognitive, behavioral, and health outcomes were assessed at baseline and at 7 months. Results The average baseline value for the primary outcome, the attention and executive-function score on the Developmental Neuropsychological Assessment (with scores ranging from 50 to 150 and higher scores indicating better functioning), was close to the population mean of 100, and the change from baseline to follow-up did not differ significantly according to study group (mean [±SD] improvement, 7.1±13.9 in the early-adenotonsillectomy group and 5.1±13.4 in the watchful-waiting group; P=0.16). In contrast, there were significantly greater improvements in behavioral, quality-of-life, and polysomnographic findings and significantly greater reduction in symptoms in the early-adenotonsillectomy group than in the watchful-waiting group. Normalization of polysomnographic findings was observed in a larger proportion of children in the early-adenotonsillectomy group than in the watchful-waiting group (79% vs. 46%). Conclusions As compared with a strategy of watchful waiting, surgical treatment for the obstructive sleep apnea syndrome in school-age children did not significantly improve attention or executive function as measured by neuropsychological testing but did reduce symptoms and improve secondary outcomes of behavior, quality of life, and polysomnographic findings, thus providing evidence of beneficial effects of early adenotonsillectomy. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health; CHAT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00560859 .).

Although the median survival age has improved steadily during the past half century, cystic fibrosis is still a life-shortening disease, affecting 30,000 children and adults in the United States. The airways of patients with cystic fibrosis are susceptible to infection, which induces an intense inflammatory response even in those with only modest pulmonary disease.(1) Although they are often asymptomatic, infants with cystic fibrosis have neutrophilic inflammation in their airways, which is both protective and destructive. Neutrophil proteases, including elastase, are critical for killing engulfed bacteria, but these proteases escape from neutrophils during phagocytosis and in death and subsequently overwhelm antiprotease . . .

Obstructive sleep apnea is common among children, with an estimated point prevalence of 1 to 5%.(1) Important sequelae include cardiovascular, growth, cognitive, and behavioral deficits. Adenotonsillectomy, the usual first-line treatment, most often cures or ameliorates the disorder. Each year, 77% of the 530,000 tonsillectomies in the United States are performed for obstructive sleep apnea.(2),(3) Given 4 million births in the United States annually, approximately one in eight American children will eventually have their tonsils removed, thus suggesting a prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea during childhood as high as 10%. Despite the frequency and severity of pediatric obstructive sleep apnea, . . .

Background A common promoter polymorphism (rs35705950) in MUC5B, the gene encoding mucin 5B, is associated with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. It is not known whether this polymorphism is associated with interstitial lung disease in the general population. Methods We performed a blinded assessment of interstitial lung abnormalities detected in 2633 participants in the Framingham Heart Study by means of volumetric chest computed tomography (CT). We evaluated the relationship between the abnormalities and the genotype at the rs35705950 locus. Results Of the 2633 chest CT scans that were evaluated, interstitial lung abnormalities were present in 177 (7%). Participants with such abnormalities were more likely to have shortness of breath and chronic cough and reduced measures of total lung and diffusion capacity, as compared with participants without such abnormalities. After adjustment for covariates, for each copy of the minor rs35705950 allele, the odds of interstitial lung abnormalities were 2.8 times greater (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.0 to 3.9; P<0.001), and the odds of definite CT evidence of pulmonary fibrosis were 6.3 times greater (95% CI, 3.1 to 12.7; P<0.001). Although the evidence of an association between the MUC5B genotype and interstitial lung abnormalities was greater among participants who were older than 50 years of age, a history of cigarette smoking did not appear to influence the association. Conclusions The MUC5B promoter polymorphism was found to be associated with interstitial lung disease in the general population. Although this association was more apparent in older persons, it did not appear to be influenced by cigarette smoking. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00005121 .).

Background Bronchiectasis develops early in the course of cystic fibrosis, being detectable in infants as young as 10 weeks of age, and is persistent and progressive. We sought to determine risk factors for the onset of bronchiectasis, using data collected by the Australian Respiratory Early Surveillance Team for Cystic Fibrosis (AREST CF) intensive surveillance program. Methods We examined data from 127 consecutive infants who received a diagnosis of cystic fibrosis after newborn screening. Chest computed tomography (CT) and bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) were performed, while the children were in stable clinical condition, at 3 months and 1, 2, and 3 years of age. Longitudinal data were used to determine risk factors associated with the detection of bronchiectasis from 3 months to 3 years of age. Results The point prevalence of bronchiectasis at each visit increased from 29.3% at 3 months of age to 61.5% at 3 years of age. In multivariate analyses, risk factors for bronchiectasis were presentation with meconium ileus (odds ratio, 3.17; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.51 to 6.66; P=0.002), respiratory symptoms at the time of CT and BAL (odds ratio, 2.27; 95% CI, 1.24 to 4.14; P=0.008), free neutrophil elastase activity in BAL fluid (odds ratio, 3.02; 95% CI, 1.70 to 5.35; P<0.001), and gas trapping on expiratory CT (odds ratio, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.17 to 3.59; P=0.01). Free neutrophil elastase activity in BAL fluid at 3 months of age was associated with persistent bronchiectasis (present on two or more sequential scans), with the odds seven times as high at 12 months of age and four times as high at 3 years of age. Conclusions Neutrophil elastase activity in BAL fluid in early life was associated with early bronchiectasis in children with cystic fibrosis. (Funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia and Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Therapeutics.).

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a syndrome of chronic, progressive fibrosing interstitial pneumonia of unknown cause.(1) The prevalence of this disorder, which is associated with a rate of death similar to that of lung cancer, is increasing.(2) The only consistent clues to its cause have been that it occurs primarily in older adults, many of whom have been smokers. As has been the case for other mysterious illnesses, genetic studies have resulted in an improved understanding of this disorder. Mutations in genes encoding surfactant proteins C and A2 (SFTPC and SFTPA2, respectively), telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT), and . . .

Background Moderate-to-severe asthma remains poorly treated. We evaluated the efficacy and safety of dupilumab (SAR231893/REGN668), a fully human monoclonal antibody to the alpha subunit of the interleukin-4 receptor, in patients with persistent, moderate-to-severe asthma and elevated eosinophil levels. Methods We enrolled patients with persistent, moderate-to-severe asthma and a blood eosinophil count of at least 300 cells per microliter or a sputum eosinophil level of at least 3% who used medium-dose to high-dose inhaled glucocorticoids plus long-acting beta-agonists (LABAs). We administered dupilumab (300 mg) or placebo subcutaneously once weekly. Patients were instructed to discontinue LABAs at week 4 and to taper and discontinue inhaled glucocorticoids during weeks 6 through 9. Patients received the study drug for 12 weeks or until a protocol-defined asthma exacerbation occurred. The primary end point was the occurrence of an asthma exacerbation; secondary end points included a range of measures of asthma control. Effects on various type 2 helper T-cell (Th2)-associated biomarkers and safety and tolerability were also evaluated. Results A total of 52 patients were assigned to the dupilumab group, and 52 patients were assigned to the placebo group. Baseline characteristics were similar in the two groups. Three patients had an asthma exacerbation with dupilumab (6%) versus 23 with placebo (44%), corresponding to an 87% reduction with dupilumab (odds ratio, 0.08; 95% confidence interval, 0.02 to 0.28; P<0.001). Significant improvements were observed for most measures of lung function and asthma control. Dupilumab reduced biomarkers associated with Th2-driven inflammation. Injection-site reactions, nasopharyngitis, nausea, and headache occurred more frequently with dupilumab than with placebo. Conclusions In patients with persistent, moderate-to-severe asthma and elevated eosinophil levels who used inhaled glucocorticoids and LABAs, dupilumab therapy, as compared with placebo, was associated with fewer asthma exacerbations when LABAs and inhaled glucocorticoids were withdrawn, with improved lung function and reduced levels of Th2-associated inflammatory markers. (Funded by Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01312961 .).

One of the most challenging aspects of the clinical management of asthma is determining how to treat patients whose condition is poorly controlled despite the use of inhaled glucocorticoids and long-acting beta-agonists (LABAs). Although most patients have a response to these treatments, it is estimated that asthma remains poorly controlled in as many as 20% of patients who use combination therapy.(1) Mainstays of the management of difficult-to-control asthma include increased adherence to treatment, avoidance of allergens and other exacerbating factors, and control of common coexisting conditions such as gastrointestinal reflux, postnasal drip, and sinusitis. Other adjuvant therapies currently available include . . .