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Firearm related deaths: the impact of regulatory reform.
Inj Prev 2004; 10(5):280-6IP

Abstract

OBJECTIVES

To examine trends in rates of firearm related deaths in Victoria, Australia, over 22 years in the context of legislative reform and describe and investigate impact measures to explain trends.

DESIGN

Mortality data were extracted from vital statistics for 1979-2000. Data on firearm related deaths that were unintentional deaths, assaults, suicides, and of undetermined intent were analyzed. Rates were calculated with population data derived from estimates by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. A quasi-experimental design that used a Poisson regression model was adopted to compare relative rates of firearm related deaths for Victoria and the rest of Australia over three critical periods of legislative reform. The Wilcoxon signed ranks test was used to assess changes in the types of firearm related deaths before and after 1998.

RESULTS

In Victoria, two periods of legislative reform related to firearms followed mass shooting events in 1988 and 1996. A national firearm amnesty and buyback scheme followed the latter. Victorian and Australian rates of firearm related deaths before reforms (1979-86) were steady. After initial Victorian reforms, a significant downward trend was seen for numbers of all firearm related deaths between 1988 and 1995 (17.3% in Victoria compared with the rest of Australia, p<0.0001). A further significant decline between 1997 and 2000 followed the later reforms. After the later all state legislation, similar strong declines occurred in the rest of Australia from 1997 (14.0% reduction compared with Victoria, p = 0.0372). Victorian reductions were observed in frequencies of firearm related suicides, assaults, and unintentional deaths before and after the 1988 reforms, but statistical significance was reached only for suicide.

CONCLUSION

Dramatic reductions in overall firearm related deaths and particularly suicides by firearms were achieved in the context of the implementation of strong regulatory reform.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Monash University Accident Research Centre, Monash University, Victoria, Australia. joan.ozanne-smith@general.monash.edu.auNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info available

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

15470007

Citation

Ozanne-Smith, J, et al. "Firearm Related Deaths: the Impact of Regulatory Reform." Injury Prevention : Journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention, vol. 10, no. 5, 2004, pp. 280-6.
Ozanne-Smith J, Ashby K, Newstead S, et al. Firearm related deaths: the impact of regulatory reform. Inj Prev. 2004;10(5):280-6.
Ozanne-Smith, J., Ashby, K., Newstead, S., Stathakis, V. Z., & Clapperton, A. (2004). Firearm related deaths: the impact of regulatory reform. Injury Prevention : Journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention, 10(5), pp. 280-6.
Ozanne-Smith J, et al. Firearm Related Deaths: the Impact of Regulatory Reform. Inj Prev. 2004;10(5):280-6. PubMed PMID: 15470007.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Firearm related deaths: the impact of regulatory reform. AU - Ozanne-Smith,J, AU - Ashby,K, AU - Newstead,S, AU - Stathakis,V Z, AU - Clapperton,A, PY - 2004/10/8/pubmed PY - 2004/12/16/medline PY - 2004/10/8/entrez SP - 280 EP - 6 JF - Injury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention JO - Inj. Prev. VL - 10 IS - 5 N2 - OBJECTIVES: To examine trends in rates of firearm related deaths in Victoria, Australia, over 22 years in the context of legislative reform and describe and investigate impact measures to explain trends. DESIGN: Mortality data were extracted from vital statistics for 1979-2000. Data on firearm related deaths that were unintentional deaths, assaults, suicides, and of undetermined intent were analyzed. Rates were calculated with population data derived from estimates by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. A quasi-experimental design that used a Poisson regression model was adopted to compare relative rates of firearm related deaths for Victoria and the rest of Australia over three critical periods of legislative reform. The Wilcoxon signed ranks test was used to assess changes in the types of firearm related deaths before and after 1998. RESULTS: In Victoria, two periods of legislative reform related to firearms followed mass shooting events in 1988 and 1996. A national firearm amnesty and buyback scheme followed the latter. Victorian and Australian rates of firearm related deaths before reforms (1979-86) were steady. After initial Victorian reforms, a significant downward trend was seen for numbers of all firearm related deaths between 1988 and 1995 (17.3% in Victoria compared with the rest of Australia, p<0.0001). A further significant decline between 1997 and 2000 followed the later reforms. After the later all state legislation, similar strong declines occurred in the rest of Australia from 1997 (14.0% reduction compared with Victoria, p = 0.0372). Victorian reductions were observed in frequencies of firearm related suicides, assaults, and unintentional deaths before and after the 1988 reforms, but statistical significance was reached only for suicide. CONCLUSION: Dramatic reductions in overall firearm related deaths and particularly suicides by firearms were achieved in the context of the implementation of strong regulatory reform. SN - 1353-8047 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/15470007/Firearm_related_deaths:_the_impact_of_regulatory_reform_ L2 - http://ip.bmj.com/cgi/pmidlookup?view=long&amp;pmid=15470007 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -