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Influenza: forecast for a pandemic.

Abstract

Recently, great speculation about a possible influenza pandemic has been made. However, the facts supporting the possibility of this threat are less discussed. During the last decade highly pathogenic strains of avian influenza virus, including the H5N1 subtype, crossed the species barriers from birds to humans and caused fatal disease. The Z strain of H5N1 subtype is characterized by pathogenicity to a larger number of animal species and by resistance to the older class of antiviral drugs. At present, two out of three general conditions for the onset of a pandemic have been met; namely, the emergence of a new virus and its ability to replicate in humans causing serious illness. Should the virus achieve efficient human-to-human transmission, the next influenza pandemic might occur. This review addresses these biological and epidemiological aspects of influenza in the context of history and characteristics of previous epidemics, as well as concrete actions that can be undertaken considering current understanding of influenza pathogenesis, treatment, and control possibilities.

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  • Publisher Full Text
  • Authors+Show Affiliations

    ,

    Centro de Investigación en Enfermedades Infecciosas, Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Respiratorias, México, D.F., México.

    Source

    MeSH

    Communicable Disease Control
    Communicable Diseases, Emerging
    Disease Outbreaks
    Disease Reservoirs
    Forecasting
    History, 20th Century
    History, 21st Century
    Humans
    Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype
    Influenza, Human
    Zoonoses

    Pub Type(s)

    Historical Article
    Journal Article

    Language

    eng

    PubMed ID

    16216644

    Citation

    de la Barrera, Claudia Alvarado, and Gustavo Reyes-Terán. "Influenza: Forecast for a Pandemic." Archives of Medical Research, vol. 36, no. 6, 2005, pp. 628-36.
    de la Barrera CA, Reyes-Terán G. Influenza: forecast for a pandemic. Arch Med Res. 2005;36(6):628-36.
    de la Barrera, C. A., & Reyes-Terán, G. (2005). Influenza: forecast for a pandemic. Archives of Medical Research, 36(6), pp. 628-36.
    de la Barrera CA, Reyes-Terán G. Influenza: Forecast for a Pandemic. Arch Med Res. 2005;36(6):628-36. PubMed PMID: 16216644.
    * Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
    TY - JOUR T1 - Influenza: forecast for a pandemic. AU - de la Barrera,Claudia Alvarado, AU - Reyes-Terán,Gustavo, PY - 2005/05/13/received PY - 2005/05/23/accepted PY - 2005/10/12/pubmed PY - 2006/2/14/medline PY - 2005/10/12/entrez SP - 628 EP - 36 JF - Archives of medical research JO - Arch. Med. Res. VL - 36 IS - 6 N2 - Recently, great speculation about a possible influenza pandemic has been made. However, the facts supporting the possibility of this threat are less discussed. During the last decade highly pathogenic strains of avian influenza virus, including the H5N1 subtype, crossed the species barriers from birds to humans and caused fatal disease. The Z strain of H5N1 subtype is characterized by pathogenicity to a larger number of animal species and by resistance to the older class of antiviral drugs. At present, two out of three general conditions for the onset of a pandemic have been met; namely, the emergence of a new virus and its ability to replicate in humans causing serious illness. Should the virus achieve efficient human-to-human transmission, the next influenza pandemic might occur. This review addresses these biological and epidemiological aspects of influenza in the context of history and characteristics of previous epidemics, as well as concrete actions that can be undertaken considering current understanding of influenza pathogenesis, treatment, and control possibilities. SN - 0188-4409 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/16216644/Influenza:_forecast_for_a_pandemic_ L2 - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0188-4409(05)00187-6 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -