Tags

Type your tag names separated by a space and hit enter

Identifying individuals at high risk of melanoma: a practical predictor of absolute risk.
J Clin Oncol 2006; 24(22):3590-6JC

Abstract

PURPOSE

We developed a model to estimate the 5-year absolute risk of melanoma to efficiently identify individuals at increased risk of melanoma for potential interventions.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We used data from a case-control study with 718 non-Hispanic white patients with invasive cutaneous melanoma from melanoma clinics in Philadelphia, PA and San Francisco, CA; matched controls were 945 patients from outpatient clinics with similar catchment areas. All participants underwent extensive interviews and skin examinations. We selected easily obtained clinical characteristics and responses to simple questions for study in order to develop sex-specific relative risk models. These models were combined with incidence and mortality rates by United States geographic areas to develop estimates of the absolute risk of developing melanoma within 5 years.

RESULTS

Relative risk models yielded an attributable risk of 86% for men and 89% for women, using at most seven variables. Attributable risks did not vary by age, ultraviolet B flux or hours outdoors. The absolute individual risks varied widely, depending on age, other host characteristics, and geographic area. Individual absolute risk can be estimated using a program available online.

CONCLUSION

Our procedures allow for estimating the absolute risk of developing melanoma to assist in the identification of patients at high risk. Such high-risk individuals could undergo interventions including a complete skin examination, counseling to avoid sun exposures, regular self and professional surveillance, or participation in prevention trials. It is important to emphasize that these projections are not intended to identify current melanoma cases.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA. fearst@epndce.nci.nih.govNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info available

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural

Language

eng

PubMed ID

16728488

Citation

Fears, Thomas R., et al. "Identifying Individuals at High Risk of Melanoma: a Practical Predictor of Absolute Risk." Journal of Clinical Oncology : Official Journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology, vol. 24, no. 22, 2006, pp. 3590-6.
Fears TR, Guerry D, Pfeiffer RM, et al. Identifying individuals at high risk of melanoma: a practical predictor of absolute risk. J Clin Oncol. 2006;24(22):3590-6.
Fears, T. R., Guerry, D., Pfeiffer, R. M., Sagebiel, R. W., Elder, D. E., Halpern, A., ... Tucker, M. A. (2006). Identifying individuals at high risk of melanoma: a practical predictor of absolute risk. Journal of Clinical Oncology : Official Journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology, 24(22), pp. 3590-6.
Fears TR, et al. Identifying Individuals at High Risk of Melanoma: a Practical Predictor of Absolute Risk. J Clin Oncol. 2006 Aug 1;24(22):3590-6. PubMed PMID: 16728488.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Identifying individuals at high risk of melanoma: a practical predictor of absolute risk. AU - Fears,Thomas R, AU - Guerry,DuPont,4th AU - Pfeiffer,Ruth M, AU - Sagebiel,Richard W, AU - Elder,David E, AU - Halpern,Allan, AU - Holly,Elizabeth A, AU - Hartge,Patricia, AU - Tucker,Margaret A, Y1 - 2006/05/25/ PY - 2006/5/27/pubmed PY - 2006/8/15/medline PY - 2006/5/27/entrez SP - 3590 EP - 6 JF - Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology JO - J. Clin. Oncol. VL - 24 IS - 22 N2 - PURPOSE: We developed a model to estimate the 5-year absolute risk of melanoma to efficiently identify individuals at increased risk of melanoma for potential interventions. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We used data from a case-control study with 718 non-Hispanic white patients with invasive cutaneous melanoma from melanoma clinics in Philadelphia, PA and San Francisco, CA; matched controls were 945 patients from outpatient clinics with similar catchment areas. All participants underwent extensive interviews and skin examinations. We selected easily obtained clinical characteristics and responses to simple questions for study in order to develop sex-specific relative risk models. These models were combined with incidence and mortality rates by United States geographic areas to develop estimates of the absolute risk of developing melanoma within 5 years. RESULTS: Relative risk models yielded an attributable risk of 86% for men and 89% for women, using at most seven variables. Attributable risks did not vary by age, ultraviolet B flux or hours outdoors. The absolute individual risks varied widely, depending on age, other host characteristics, and geographic area. Individual absolute risk can be estimated using a program available online. CONCLUSION: Our procedures allow for estimating the absolute risk of developing melanoma to assist in the identification of patients at high risk. Such high-risk individuals could undergo interventions including a complete skin examination, counseling to avoid sun exposures, regular self and professional surveillance, or participation in prevention trials. It is important to emphasize that these projections are not intended to identify current melanoma cases. SN - 1527-7755 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/16728488/Identifying_individuals_at_high_risk_of_melanoma:_a_practical_predictor_of_absolute_risk_ L2 - http://ascopubs.org/doi/full/10.1200/JCO.2005.04.1277?url_ver=Z39.88-2003&rfr_id=ori:rid:crossref.org&rfr_dat=cr_pub=pubmed DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -