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Trends in the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus from the 1970s to the 1990s: the Framingham Heart Study.
Circulation 2006; 113(25):2914-8Circ

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Recent studies indicate that the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus is increasing in the United States; less is known about trends in the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Participants free of diabetes mellitus (n=3104; mean age 47 years; 1587 women) from the Framingham Offspring Study who attended a routine examination in the 1970s, 1980s, or 1990s were followed up for the 8-year incidence of diabetes mellitus. Diabetes was defined as a fasting plasma glucose > or = 7.0 mmol/L or treatment with either insulin or a hypoglycemic agent. Pooled logistic regression was used to compare diabetes incidence across decades for participants between 40 and 55 years of age in each decade. The age-adjusted 8-year incidence rate of diabetes was 2.0%, 3.0%, and 3.7% among women and 2.7%, 3.6%, and 5.8% among men in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, respectively. Compared with the 1970s, the age- and sex-adjusted odds ratio (OR) for diabetes was 1.40 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.89 to 2.22) in the 1980s and 2.05 (95% CI, 1.33 to 3.14) in the 1990s (P for trend=0.0006). Among women, the OR was 1.50 (95% CI, 0.75 to 2.98) in the 1980s and 1.84 (95% CI, 0.95 to 3.55) in the 1990s (P for trend=0.07) compared with the 1970s, whereas among men, the OR was 1.33 (95% CI, 0.72 to 2.47) in the 1980s and 2.21 (95% CI, 1.25 to 3.90) in the 1990s (P for trend=0.003). Most of the increase in absolute incidence of diabetes occurred in individuals with body mass index > or = 30 kg/m2 (P for trend=0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

In the present community-based sample of middle-aged adults, we observed a doubling in the incidence of type 2 diabetes over the last 30 years. Careful surveillance of changes in diabetes incidence may be necessary if current trends of excess adiposity continue.

Authors+Show Affiliations

National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute's Framingham Heart Study, Framingham, Massachusetts, USA. foxca@nhlbi.nih.govNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info available

Pub Type(s)

Comparative Study
Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

16785337

Citation

Fox, Caroline S., et al. "Trends in the Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus From the 1970s to the 1990s: the Framingham Heart Study." Circulation, vol. 113, no. 25, 2006, pp. 2914-8.
Fox CS, Pencina MJ, Meigs JB, et al. Trends in the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus from the 1970s to the 1990s: the Framingham Heart Study. Circulation. 2006;113(25):2914-8.
Fox, C. S., Pencina, M. J., Meigs, J. B., Vasan, R. S., Levitzky, Y. S., & D'Agostino, R. B. (2006). Trends in the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus from the 1970s to the 1990s: the Framingham Heart Study. Circulation, 113(25), pp. 2914-8.
Fox CS, et al. Trends in the Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus From the 1970s to the 1990s: the Framingham Heart Study. Circulation. 2006 Jun 27;113(25):2914-8. PubMed PMID: 16785337.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Trends in the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus from the 1970s to the 1990s: the Framingham Heart Study. AU - Fox,Caroline S, AU - Pencina,Michael J, AU - Meigs,James B, AU - Vasan,Ramachandran S, AU - Levitzky,Yamini S, AU - D'Agostino,Ralph B,Sr Y1 - 2006/06/19/ PY - 2006/6/21/pubmed PY - 2006/8/17/medline PY - 2006/6/21/entrez SP - 2914 EP - 8 JF - Circulation JO - Circulation VL - 113 IS - 25 N2 - BACKGROUND: Recent studies indicate that the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus is increasing in the United States; less is known about trends in the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus. METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants free of diabetes mellitus (n=3104; mean age 47 years; 1587 women) from the Framingham Offspring Study who attended a routine examination in the 1970s, 1980s, or 1990s were followed up for the 8-year incidence of diabetes mellitus. Diabetes was defined as a fasting plasma glucose > or = 7.0 mmol/L or treatment with either insulin or a hypoglycemic agent. Pooled logistic regression was used to compare diabetes incidence across decades for participants between 40 and 55 years of age in each decade. The age-adjusted 8-year incidence rate of diabetes was 2.0%, 3.0%, and 3.7% among women and 2.7%, 3.6%, and 5.8% among men in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, respectively. Compared with the 1970s, the age- and sex-adjusted odds ratio (OR) for diabetes was 1.40 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.89 to 2.22) in the 1980s and 2.05 (95% CI, 1.33 to 3.14) in the 1990s (P for trend=0.0006). Among women, the OR was 1.50 (95% CI, 0.75 to 2.98) in the 1980s and 1.84 (95% CI, 0.95 to 3.55) in the 1990s (P for trend=0.07) compared with the 1970s, whereas among men, the OR was 1.33 (95% CI, 0.72 to 2.47) in the 1980s and 2.21 (95% CI, 1.25 to 3.90) in the 1990s (P for trend=0.003). Most of the increase in absolute incidence of diabetes occurred in individuals with body mass index > or = 30 kg/m2 (P for trend=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: In the present community-based sample of middle-aged adults, we observed a doubling in the incidence of type 2 diabetes over the last 30 years. Careful surveillance of changes in diabetes incidence may be necessary if current trends of excess adiposity continue. SN - 1524-4539 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/16785337/Trends_in_the_incidence_of_type_2_diabetes_mellitus_from_the_1970s_to_the_1990s:_the_Framingham_Heart_Study_ L2 - http://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.106.613828?url_ver=Z39.88-2003&rfr_id=ori:rid:crossref.org&rfr_dat=cr_pub=pubmed DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -