Tags

Type your tag names separated by a space and hit enter

Validated prediction model for the development of primary open-angle glaucoma in individuals with ocular hypertension.
Ophthalmology 2007; 114(1):10-9O

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To test the validity and generalizability of the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS) prediction model for the development of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) in a large independent sample of untreated ocular hypertensive individuals and to develop a quantitative calculator to estimate the 5-year risk that an individual with ocular hypertension will develop POAG.

DESIGN

A prediction model was developed from the observation group of the OHTS and then tested on the placebo group of the European Glaucoma Prevention Study (EGPS) using a z statistic to compare hazard ratios, a c statistic for discrimination, and a calibration chi2 for systematic overestimation/underestimation of predicted risk. The 2 study samples were pooled to increase precision and generalizability of a 5-year predictive model for developing POAG.

PARTICIPANTS

The OHTS observation group (n = 819; 6.6 years' median follow-up) and EGPS placebo group (n = 500; 4.8 years' median follow-up).

TESTING

Data were collected on demographic characteristics, medical history, ocular examination visual fields (VFs), and optic disc photographs.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Development of reproducible VF abnormality or optic disc progression as determined by masked readers and attributed to POAG by a masked end point committee.

RESULTS

The same predictors for the development of POAG were identified independently in both the OHTS observation group and the EGPS placebo group-baseline age, intraocular pressure, central corneal thickness, vertical cup-to-disc ratio, and Humphrey VF pattern standard deviation. The pooled multivariate model for the development of POAG had good discrimination (c statistic, 0.74) and accurate estimation of POAG risk (calibration chi2, 7.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The OHTS prediction model was validated in the EGPS placebo group. A calculator to estimate the 5-year risk of developing POAG, based on the pooled OHTS-EGPS predictive model, has high precision and will be useful for clinicians and patients in deciding the frequency of tests and examinations during follow-up and advisability of initiating preventive treatment.

Authors+Show Affiliations

OHTS Coordinating Center, Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, Washington University School of Medicine, Box 8203, 660 South Euclid, St. Louis, MO 63110, USA. mae@vrcc.wustl.eduNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info available

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Validation Studies

Language

eng

PubMed ID

17095090

Citation

Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study Group, et al. "Validated Prediction Model for the Development of Primary Open-angle Glaucoma in Individuals With Ocular Hypertension." Ophthalmology, vol. 114, no. 1, 2007, pp. 10-9.
Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study Group, European Glaucoma Prevention Study Group, Gordon MO, et al. Validated prediction model for the development of primary open-angle glaucoma in individuals with ocular hypertension. Ophthalmology. 2007;114(1):10-9.
Gordon, M. O., Torri, V., Miglior, S., Beiser, J. A., Floriani, I., Miller, J. P., ... Kass, M. A. (2007). Validated prediction model for the development of primary open-angle glaucoma in individuals with ocular hypertension. Ophthalmology, 114(1), pp. 10-9.
Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study Group, et al. Validated Prediction Model for the Development of Primary Open-angle Glaucoma in Individuals With Ocular Hypertension. Ophthalmology. 2007;114(1):10-9. PubMed PMID: 17095090.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Validated prediction model for the development of primary open-angle glaucoma in individuals with ocular hypertension. AU - ,, AU - ,, AU - Gordon,Mae O, AU - Torri,Valter, AU - Miglior,Stefano, AU - Beiser,Julia A, AU - Floriani,Irene, AU - Miller,J Philip, AU - Gao,Feng, AU - Adamsons,Ingrid, AU - Poli,Davide, AU - D'Agostino,Ralph B, AU - Kass,Michael A, Y1 - 2006/11/07/ PY - 2006/05/17/received PY - 2006/08/01/revised PY - 2006/08/03/accepted PY - 2006/11/11/pubmed PY - 2007/1/17/medline PY - 2006/11/11/entrez SP - 10 EP - 9 JF - Ophthalmology JO - Ophthalmology VL - 114 IS - 1 N2 - OBJECTIVE: To test the validity and generalizability of the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS) prediction model for the development of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) in a large independent sample of untreated ocular hypertensive individuals and to develop a quantitative calculator to estimate the 5-year risk that an individual with ocular hypertension will develop POAG. DESIGN: A prediction model was developed from the observation group of the OHTS and then tested on the placebo group of the European Glaucoma Prevention Study (EGPS) using a z statistic to compare hazard ratios, a c statistic for discrimination, and a calibration chi2 for systematic overestimation/underestimation of predicted risk. The 2 study samples were pooled to increase precision and generalizability of a 5-year predictive model for developing POAG. PARTICIPANTS: The OHTS observation group (n = 819; 6.6 years' median follow-up) and EGPS placebo group (n = 500; 4.8 years' median follow-up). TESTING: Data were collected on demographic characteristics, medical history, ocular examination visual fields (VFs), and optic disc photographs. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Development of reproducible VF abnormality or optic disc progression as determined by masked readers and attributed to POAG by a masked end point committee. RESULTS: The same predictors for the development of POAG were identified independently in both the OHTS observation group and the EGPS placebo group-baseline age, intraocular pressure, central corneal thickness, vertical cup-to-disc ratio, and Humphrey VF pattern standard deviation. The pooled multivariate model for the development of POAG had good discrimination (c statistic, 0.74) and accurate estimation of POAG risk (calibration chi2, 7.05). CONCLUSIONS: The OHTS prediction model was validated in the EGPS placebo group. A calculator to estimate the 5-year risk of developing POAG, based on the pooled OHTS-EGPS predictive model, has high precision and will be useful for clinicians and patients in deciding the frequency of tests and examinations during follow-up and advisability of initiating preventive treatment. SN - 1549-4713 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/17095090/Validated_prediction_model_for_the_development_of_primary_open_angle_glaucoma_in_individuals_with_ocular_hypertension_ L2 - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0161-6420(06)01152-3 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -