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A novel prognostic model based on serum levels of total bilirubin and creatinine early after liver transplantation.
Liver Int. 2007 Aug; 27(6):816-24.LI

Abstract

BACKGROUND/AIM

We aim to evaluate the impact of early renal dysfunction (ERD), early allograft dysfunction (EAD) on post-transplant mortality, and further explore a simple and accurate model to predict prognosis.

PATIENTS

A total of 161 adult patients who underwent liver transplantation for benign end-stage liver diseases were enrolled in the retrospective study. Another 38 patients were used for model validation.

RESULTS

Poor patient survival was associated with ERD or EAD. A post-transplant model for predicting mortality (PMPM) based on serum levels of total bilirubin and creatinine at 24-h post-transplantation was then established according to multivariate logistic regression. At 3 months, 6 months and 1 year, the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) of PMPM score at 24-h post-transplantation (0.876, 0.878 and 0.849, respectively) were significantly higher than those of pre-transplant model for end-stage liver diseases (MELD) score (0.673, 0.674 and 0.618, respectively) or the post-transplant MELD score at 24-h post-transplantation (0.787, 0.787 and 0.781, respectively) (P<0.05). Patients with PMPM score <or=-1.4 (low-risk group, n=114) achieved better survival than those with PMPM score >-1.4 (high-risk group, n=47) (P<0.001). The patients in the high-risk group showed a relatively good outcome if their PMPM scores decreased to <or=-1.4 at post-transplant day 7. The subsequent validation study showed that PMPM functioned with a predictive accuracy of 100%.

CONCLUSION

The PMPM score could effectively predict short- and medium-term mortality in liver transplant recipients.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Department of Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.No affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info available

Pub Type(s)

Evaluation Study
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

17617125

Citation

Xu, Xiao, et al. "A Novel Prognostic Model Based On Serum Levels of Total Bilirubin and Creatinine Early After Liver Transplantation." Liver International : Official Journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver, vol. 27, no. 6, 2007, pp. 816-24.
Xu X, Ling Q, Wu J, et al. A novel prognostic model based on serum levels of total bilirubin and creatinine early after liver transplantation. Liver Int. 2007;27(6):816-24.
Xu, X., Ling, Q., Wu, J., Chen, J., Gao, F., Feng, X. N., & Zheng, S. S. (2007). A novel prognostic model based on serum levels of total bilirubin and creatinine early after liver transplantation. Liver International : Official Journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver, 27(6), 816-24.
Xu X, et al. A Novel Prognostic Model Based On Serum Levels of Total Bilirubin and Creatinine Early After Liver Transplantation. Liver Int. 2007;27(6):816-24. PubMed PMID: 17617125.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - A novel prognostic model based on serum levels of total bilirubin and creatinine early after liver transplantation. AU - Xu,Xiao, AU - Ling,Qi, AU - Wu,Jian, AU - Chen,Jun, AU - Gao,Feng, AU - Feng,Xiao-Ning, AU - Zheng,Shu-Sen, PY - 2007/7/10/pubmed PY - 2007/9/20/medline PY - 2007/7/10/entrez SP - 816 EP - 24 JF - Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver JO - Liver Int VL - 27 IS - 6 N2 - BACKGROUND/AIM: We aim to evaluate the impact of early renal dysfunction (ERD), early allograft dysfunction (EAD) on post-transplant mortality, and further explore a simple and accurate model to predict prognosis. PATIENTS: A total of 161 adult patients who underwent liver transplantation for benign end-stage liver diseases were enrolled in the retrospective study. Another 38 patients were used for model validation. RESULTS: Poor patient survival was associated with ERD or EAD. A post-transplant model for predicting mortality (PMPM) based on serum levels of total bilirubin and creatinine at 24-h post-transplantation was then established according to multivariate logistic regression. At 3 months, 6 months and 1 year, the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) of PMPM score at 24-h post-transplantation (0.876, 0.878 and 0.849, respectively) were significantly higher than those of pre-transplant model for end-stage liver diseases (MELD) score (0.673, 0.674 and 0.618, respectively) or the post-transplant MELD score at 24-h post-transplantation (0.787, 0.787 and 0.781, respectively) (P<0.05). Patients with PMPM score <or=-1.4 (low-risk group, n=114) achieved better survival than those with PMPM score >-1.4 (high-risk group, n=47) (P<0.001). The patients in the high-risk group showed a relatively good outcome if their PMPM scores decreased to <or=-1.4 at post-transplant day 7. The subsequent validation study showed that PMPM functioned with a predictive accuracy of 100%. CONCLUSION: The PMPM score could effectively predict short- and medium-term mortality in liver transplant recipients. SN - 1478-3223 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/17617125/A_novel_prognostic_model_based_on_serum_levels_of_total_bilirubin_and_creatinine_early_after_liver_transplantation_ L2 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1478-3231.2007.01494.x DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -