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A risk assessment model for Campylobacter in broiler meat.
Risk Anal. 2007 Aug; 27(4):845-61.RA

Abstract

A quantitative microbiological risk assessment model describes the transmission of Campylobacter through the broiler meat production chain and at home, from entering the processing plant until consumption of a chicken breast fillet meal. The exposure model is linked to a dose-response model to allow estimation of the incidence of human campylobacteriosis. The ultimate objective of the model is to serve as a tool to assess the effects of interventions to reduce campylobacteriosis in the Netherlands. The model describes some basic mechanistics of processing, including the nonlinear effects of cross-contamination between carcasses and their leaking feces. Model input is based on the output of an accompanying farm model and Dutch count data of Campylobacters on the birds' exterior and in the feces. When processing data are lacking, expert judgment is used for model parameter estimation. The model shows that to accurately assess of the effects of interventions, numbers of Campylobacter have to be explicitly incorporated in the model in addition to the prevalence of contamination. Also, as count data usually vary by several orders of magnitude, variability in numbers within and especially between flocks has to be accounted for. Flocks with high concentrations of Campylobacter in the feces that leak from the carcasses during industrial processing seem to have a dominant impact on the human incidence. The uncertainty in the final risk estimate is large, due to a large uncertainty at several stages of the chain. Among others, more quantitative count data at several stages of the production chain are needed to decrease this uncertainty. However, this uncertainty is smaller when relative risks of interventions are calculated with the model. Hence, the model can be effectively used by risk management in deciding on strategies to reduce human campylobacteriosis.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Nauta MJ
National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), MGB, Bilthoven, The Netherlands. maarten.nauta@rivm.nl
Jacobs-Reitsma WF
No affiliation info available
Havelaar AH
No affiliation info available

MeSH

AgingAnimalsAnimals, DomesticCampylobacterCampylobacter InfectionsChickensHumansMeatModels, BiologicalProbabilityRisk Assessment

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

17958496

Citation

Nauta, Maarten J., et al. "A Risk Assessment Model for Campylobacter in Broiler Meat." Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, vol. 27, no. 4, 2007, pp. 845-61.
Nauta MJ, Jacobs-Reitsma WF, Havelaar AH. A risk assessment model for Campylobacter in broiler meat. Risk Anal. 2007;27(4):845-61.
Nauta, M. J., Jacobs-Reitsma, W. F., & Havelaar, A. H. (2007). A risk assessment model for Campylobacter in broiler meat. Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, 27(4), 845-61.
Nauta MJ, Jacobs-Reitsma WF, Havelaar AH. A Risk Assessment Model for Campylobacter in Broiler Meat. Risk Anal. 2007;27(4):845-61. PubMed PMID: 17958496.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - A risk assessment model for Campylobacter in broiler meat. AU - Nauta,Maarten J, AU - Jacobs-Reitsma,Wilma F, AU - Havelaar,Arie H, PY - 2007/10/26/pubmed PY - 2007/12/18/medline PY - 2007/10/26/entrez SP - 845 EP - 61 JF - Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis JO - Risk Anal VL - 27 IS - 4 N2 - A quantitative microbiological risk assessment model describes the transmission of Campylobacter through the broiler meat production chain and at home, from entering the processing plant until consumption of a chicken breast fillet meal. The exposure model is linked to a dose-response model to allow estimation of the incidence of human campylobacteriosis. The ultimate objective of the model is to serve as a tool to assess the effects of interventions to reduce campylobacteriosis in the Netherlands. The model describes some basic mechanistics of processing, including the nonlinear effects of cross-contamination between carcasses and their leaking feces. Model input is based on the output of an accompanying farm model and Dutch count data of Campylobacters on the birds' exterior and in the feces. When processing data are lacking, expert judgment is used for model parameter estimation. The model shows that to accurately assess of the effects of interventions, numbers of Campylobacter have to be explicitly incorporated in the model in addition to the prevalence of contamination. Also, as count data usually vary by several orders of magnitude, variability in numbers within and especially between flocks has to be accounted for. Flocks with high concentrations of Campylobacter in the feces that leak from the carcasses during industrial processing seem to have a dominant impact on the human incidence. The uncertainty in the final risk estimate is large, due to a large uncertainty at several stages of the chain. Among others, more quantitative count data at several stages of the production chain are needed to decrease this uncertainty. However, this uncertainty is smaller when relative risks of interventions are calculated with the model. Hence, the model can be effectively used by risk management in deciding on strategies to reduce human campylobacteriosis. SN - 0272-4332 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/17958496/A_risk_assessment_model_for_Campylobacter_in_broiler_meat_ L2 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00834.x DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -