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Rescinding community mitigation strategies in an influenza pandemic.
Emerg Infect Dis. 2008 Mar; 14(3):365-72.EI

Abstract

Using a networked, agent-based computational model of a stylized community, we evaluated thresholds for rescinding 2 community mitigation strategies after an influenza pandemic. We ended child sequestering or all-community sequestering when illness incidence waned to thresholds of 0, 1, 2, or 3 cases in 7 days in 2 levels of pandemic severity. An unmitigated epidemic or strategy continuation for the epidemic duration served as control scenarios. The 0-case per 7-day rescinding threshold was comparable to the continuation strategy on infection and illness rates but reduced the number of days strategies would be needed by 6% to 32% in mild or severe pandemics. If cases recurred, strategies were resumed at a predefined 10-case trigger, and epidemic recurrence was thwarted. Strategies were most effective when used with high compliance and when combined with stringent rescinding thresholds. The need for strategies implemented for control of an influenza pandemic was reduced, without increasing illness rates.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Office of Public Health and Environmental Hazards, Department of Veterans Affairs, Veterans Health Administration, 810 Vermont Ave NW, Mailcode 13, Washington, DC 20420, USA. victoria.davey@va.govNo affiliation info available

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

Language

eng

PubMed ID

18325247

Citation

Davey, Victoria J., and Robert J. Glass. "Rescinding Community Mitigation Strategies in an Influenza Pandemic." Emerging Infectious Diseases, vol. 14, no. 3, 2008, pp. 365-72.
Davey VJ, Glass RJ. Rescinding community mitigation strategies in an influenza pandemic. Emerg Infect Dis. 2008;14(3):365-72.
Davey, V. J., & Glass, R. J. (2008). Rescinding community mitigation strategies in an influenza pandemic. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 14(3), 365-72. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid1403.070673
Davey VJ, Glass RJ. Rescinding Community Mitigation Strategies in an Influenza Pandemic. Emerg Infect Dis. 2008;14(3):365-72. PubMed PMID: 18325247.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Rescinding community mitigation strategies in an influenza pandemic. AU - Davey,Victoria J, AU - Glass,Robert J, PY - 2008/3/8/pubmed PY - 2008/10/29/medline PY - 2008/3/8/entrez SP - 365 EP - 72 JF - Emerging infectious diseases JO - Emerg Infect Dis VL - 14 IS - 3 N2 - Using a networked, agent-based computational model of a stylized community, we evaluated thresholds for rescinding 2 community mitigation strategies after an influenza pandemic. We ended child sequestering or all-community sequestering when illness incidence waned to thresholds of 0, 1, 2, or 3 cases in 7 days in 2 levels of pandemic severity. An unmitigated epidemic or strategy continuation for the epidemic duration served as control scenarios. The 0-case per 7-day rescinding threshold was comparable to the continuation strategy on infection and illness rates but reduced the number of days strategies would be needed by 6% to 32% in mild or severe pandemics. If cases recurred, strategies were resumed at a predefined 10-case trigger, and epidemic recurrence was thwarted. Strategies were most effective when used with high compliance and when combined with stringent rescinding thresholds. The need for strategies implemented for control of an influenza pandemic was reduced, without increasing illness rates. SN - 1080-6059 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/18325247/Rescinding_community_mitigation_strategies_in_an_influenza_pandemic_ L2 - https://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid1403.070673 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -