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Attribution of foodborne pathogens using structured expert elicitation.
Foodborne Pathog Dis. 2008 Oct; 5(5):649-59.FP

Abstract

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the fraction of human cases of enterically transmitted illness by five major pathways (food, environment, direct animal contact, human-human transmission, and travel) and by 11 groups within the food pathway.

METHODS

Food safety experts were asked to provide their estimates of the most likely range for each of the parameters. Joint probability distributions were created by probabilistic inversion (PI).

RESULTS

Sixteen experts participated in the study. PI resulted in good fits for most pathogens. Qualitatively, expert estimates were similar to earlier published studies but the estimated fraction of foodborne transmission was lower for most pathogens. Biologically less plausible pathways were given some weight by the experts. Uncertainties were smallest for pathogens with dominant transmission routes.

CONCLUSIONS

Structured expert studies are a feasible method for source attribution, but methods need further development.

APPLICATIONS

These estimates can be combined with data on incidence, disease burden and costs to provide specific estimates of the public health impact of foodborne illness, and to identify the food groups that have the highest impact.

Links

Publisher Full Text

Authors+Show Affiliations

Havelaar AH
Laboratory for Zoonoses and Environmental Microbiology, Centre for Infectious Disease Control Netherlands, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands. arie.havelaar@rivm.nl
Galindo AV
No affiliation info available
Kurowicka D
No affiliation info available
Cooke RM
No affiliation info available

MeSH

AnimalsDisease OutbreaksDisease Transmission, InfectiousFood MicrobiologyFoodborne DiseasesHumansIncidencePublic Health

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

18687052

Citation

Havelaar, Arie H., et al. "Attribution of Foodborne Pathogens Using Structured Expert Elicitation." Foodborne Pathogens and Disease, vol. 5, no. 5, 2008, pp. 649-59.
Havelaar AH, Galindo AV, Kurowicka D, et al. Attribution of foodborne pathogens using structured expert elicitation. Foodborne Pathog Dis. 2008;5(5):649-59.
Havelaar, A. H., Galindo, A. V., Kurowicka, D., & Cooke, R. M. (2008). Attribution of foodborne pathogens using structured expert elicitation. Foodborne Pathogens and Disease, 5(5), 649-59. https://doi.org/10.1089/fpd.2008.0115
Havelaar AH, et al. Attribution of Foodborne Pathogens Using Structured Expert Elicitation. Foodborne Pathog Dis. 2008;5(5):649-59. PubMed PMID: 18687052.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Attribution of foodborne pathogens using structured expert elicitation. AU - Havelaar,Arie H, AU - Galindo,Angela Vargas, AU - Kurowicka,Dorotha, AU - Cooke,Roger M, PY - 2008/8/9/pubmed PY - 2008/12/17/medline PY - 2008/8/9/entrez SP - 649 EP - 59 JF - Foodborne pathogens and disease JO - Foodborne Pathog Dis VL - 5 IS - 5 N2 - OBJECTIVES: To estimate the fraction of human cases of enterically transmitted illness by five major pathways (food, environment, direct animal contact, human-human transmission, and travel) and by 11 groups within the food pathway. METHODS: Food safety experts were asked to provide their estimates of the most likely range for each of the parameters. Joint probability distributions were created by probabilistic inversion (PI). RESULTS: Sixteen experts participated in the study. PI resulted in good fits for most pathogens. Qualitatively, expert estimates were similar to earlier published studies but the estimated fraction of foodborne transmission was lower for most pathogens. Biologically less plausible pathways were given some weight by the experts. Uncertainties were smallest for pathogens with dominant transmission routes. CONCLUSIONS: Structured expert studies are a feasible method for source attribution, but methods need further development. APPLICATIONS: These estimates can be combined with data on incidence, disease burden and costs to provide specific estimates of the public health impact of foodborne illness, and to identify the food groups that have the highest impact. SN - 1556-7125 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/18687052/Attribution_of_foodborne_pathogens_using_structured_expert_elicitation_ L2 - https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/fpd.2008.0115?url_ver=Z39.88-2003&rfr_id=ori:rid:crossref.org&rfr_dat=cr_pub=pubmed DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -