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Risk estimates of dengue in travelers to dengue endemic areas using mathematical models.
J Travel Med. 2009 May-Jun; 16(3):191-3.JT

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Dengue has emerged as a frequent problem in international travelers. The risk depends on destination, duration, and season of travel. However, data to quantify the true risk for travelers to acquire dengue are lacking.

METHODS

We used mathematical models to estimate the risk of nonimmune persons to acquire dengue when traveling to Singapore. From the force of infection, we calculated the risk of dengue dependent on duration of stay and season of arrival.

RESULTS

Our data highlight that the risk for nonimmune travelers to acquire dengue in Singapore is substantial but varies greatly with seasons and epidemic cycles. For instance, for a traveler who stays in Singapore for 1 week during the high dengue season in 2005, the risk of acquiring dengue was 0.17%, but it was only 0.00423% during the low season in a nonepidemic year such as 2002.

DISCUSSION

Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling will help the travel medicine provider give better evidence-based advice for travelers to dengue endemic countries.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Medical Informatics, The University of Sāo Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.No affiliation info available

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

19538580

Citation

Massad, Eduardo, and Annelies Wilder-Smith. "Risk Estimates of Dengue in Travelers to Dengue Endemic Areas Using Mathematical Models." Journal of Travel Medicine, vol. 16, no. 3, 2009, pp. 191-3.
Massad E, Wilder-Smith A. Risk estimates of dengue in travelers to dengue endemic areas using mathematical models. J Travel Med. 2009;16(3):191-3.
Massad, E., & Wilder-Smith, A. (2009). Risk estimates of dengue in travelers to dengue endemic areas using mathematical models. Journal of Travel Medicine, 16(3), 191-3. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1708-8305.2009.00310.x
Massad E, Wilder-Smith A. Risk Estimates of Dengue in Travelers to Dengue Endemic Areas Using Mathematical Models. J Travel Med. 2009 May-Jun;16(3):191-3. PubMed PMID: 19538580.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Risk estimates of dengue in travelers to dengue endemic areas using mathematical models. AU - Massad,Eduardo, AU - Wilder-Smith,Annelies, Y1 - 2009/05/05/ PY - 2009/6/23/entrez PY - 2009/6/23/pubmed PY - 2009/9/15/medline SP - 191 EP - 3 JF - Journal of travel medicine JO - J Travel Med VL - 16 IS - 3 N2 - BACKGROUND: Dengue has emerged as a frequent problem in international travelers. The risk depends on destination, duration, and season of travel. However, data to quantify the true risk for travelers to acquire dengue are lacking. METHODS: We used mathematical models to estimate the risk of nonimmune persons to acquire dengue when traveling to Singapore. From the force of infection, we calculated the risk of dengue dependent on duration of stay and season of arrival. RESULTS: Our data highlight that the risk for nonimmune travelers to acquire dengue in Singapore is substantial but varies greatly with seasons and epidemic cycles. For instance, for a traveler who stays in Singapore for 1 week during the high dengue season in 2005, the risk of acquiring dengue was 0.17%, but it was only 0.00423% during the low season in a nonepidemic year such as 2002. DISCUSSION: Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling will help the travel medicine provider give better evidence-based advice for travelers to dengue endemic countries. SN - 1708-8305 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/19538580/Risk_estimates_of_dengue_in_travelers_to_dengue_endemic_areas_using_mathematical_models_ L2 - https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article-lookup/doi/10.1111/j.1708-8305.2009.00310.x DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -