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Pandemic influenza--including a risk assessment of H5N1.
Rev Sci Tech 2009; 28(1):187-202RS

Abstract

Influenza pandemics and epidemics have apparently occurred since at least the Middle Ages. When pandemics appear, 50% or more of an affected population can be infected in a single year, and the number of deaths caused by influenza can dramatically exceed what is normally expected. Since 1500, there appear to have been 13 or more influenza pandemics. In the past 120 years there were undoubted pandemics in 1889, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. Although most experts believe we will face another influenza pandemic, it is impossible to predict when it will appear, where it will originate, or how severe it will be. Nor is there agreement about the subtype of influenza virus most likely to cause the next pandemic. The continuing spread of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses has heightened interest in pandemic prediction. Despite uncertainties in the historical record of the pre-virology era, study of previous pandemics may help guide future pandemic planning and lead to a better understanding of the complex ecobiology underlying the formation of pandemic strains of influenza A viruses.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, 33 North Drive, Bethesda, MD 20892-3203, USA. taubenbergerj@niaid.nih.govNo affiliation info available

Pub Type(s)

Historical Article
Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, N.I.H., Intramural

Language

eng

PubMed ID

19618626

Citation

Taubenberger, J K., and D M. Morens. "Pandemic Influenza--including a Risk Assessment of H5N1." Revue Scientifique Et Technique (International Office of Epizootics), vol. 28, no. 1, 2009, pp. 187-202.
Taubenberger JK, Morens DM. Pandemic influenza--including a risk assessment of H5N1. Rev - Off Int Epizoot. 2009;28(1):187-202.
Taubenberger, J. K., & Morens, D. M. (2009). Pandemic influenza--including a risk assessment of H5N1. Revue Scientifique Et Technique (International Office of Epizootics), 28(1), pp. 187-202.
Taubenberger JK, Morens DM. Pandemic Influenza--including a Risk Assessment of H5N1. Rev - Off Int Epizoot. 2009;28(1):187-202. PubMed PMID: 19618626.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Pandemic influenza--including a risk assessment of H5N1. AU - Taubenberger,J K, AU - Morens,D M, PY - 2009/7/22/entrez PY - 2009/7/22/pubmed PY - 2009/8/19/medline SP - 187 EP - 202 JF - Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics) JO - Rev. - Off. Int. Epizoot. VL - 28 IS - 1 N2 - Influenza pandemics and epidemics have apparently occurred since at least the Middle Ages. When pandemics appear, 50% or more of an affected population can be infected in a single year, and the number of deaths caused by influenza can dramatically exceed what is normally expected. Since 1500, there appear to have been 13 or more influenza pandemics. In the past 120 years there were undoubted pandemics in 1889, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. Although most experts believe we will face another influenza pandemic, it is impossible to predict when it will appear, where it will originate, or how severe it will be. Nor is there agreement about the subtype of influenza virus most likely to cause the next pandemic. The continuing spread of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses has heightened interest in pandemic prediction. Despite uncertainties in the historical record of the pre-virology era, study of previous pandemics may help guide future pandemic planning and lead to a better understanding of the complex ecobiology underlying the formation of pandemic strains of influenza A viruses. SN - 0253-1933 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/19618626/Pandemic_influenza__including_a_risk_assessment_of_H5N1_ L2 - http://dx.doi.org/10.20506/rst.28.1.1879 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -