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A systems approach to college drinking: development of a deterministic model for testing alcohol control policies.
J Stud Alcohol Drugs 2009; 70(5):805-21JS

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

The misuse and abuse of alcohol among college students remain persistent problems. Using a systems approach to understand the dynamics of student drinking behavior and thus forecasting the impact of campus policy to address the problem represents a novel approach. Toward this end, the successful development of a predictive mathematical model of college drinking would represent a significant advance for prevention efforts.

METHOD

A deterministic, compartmental model of college drinking was developed, incorporating three processes: (1) individual factors, (2) social interactions, and (3) social norms. The model quantifies these processes in terms of the movement of students between drinking compartments characterized by five styles of college drinking: abstainers, light drinkers, moderate drinkers, problem drinkers, and heavy episodic drinkers. Predictions from the model were first compared with actual campus-level data and then used to predict the effects of several simulated interventions to address heavy episodic drinking.

RESULTS

First, the model provides a reasonable fit of actual drinking styles of students attending Social Norms Marketing Research Project campuses varying by "wetness" and by drinking styles of matriculating students. Second, the model predicts that a combination of simulated interventions targeting heavy episodic drinkers at a moderately "dry" campus would extinguish heavy episodic drinkers, replacing them with light and moderate drinkers. Instituting the same combination of simulated interventions at a moderately "wet" campus would result in only a moderate reduction in heavy episodic drinkers (i.e., 50% to 35%).

CONCLUSIONS

A simple, five-state compartmental model adequately predicted the actual drinking patterns of students from a variety of campuses surveyed in the Social Norms Marketing Research Project study. The model predicted the impact on drinking patterns of several simulated interventions to address heavy episodic drinking on various types of campuses.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Louisiana State University, New Orleans, 70112, USA. rscrib@lsuhsc.eduNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info available

Pub Type(s)

Comparative Study
Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural

Language

eng

PubMed ID

19737506

Citation

Scribner, Richard, et al. "A Systems Approach to College Drinking: Development of a Deterministic Model for Testing Alcohol Control Policies." Journal of Studies On Alcohol and Drugs, vol. 70, no. 5, 2009, pp. 805-21.
Scribner R, Ackleh AS, Fitzpatrick BG, et al. A systems approach to college drinking: development of a deterministic model for testing alcohol control policies. J Stud Alcohol Drugs. 2009;70(5):805-21.
Scribner, R., Ackleh, A. S., Fitzpatrick, B. G., Jacquez, G., Thibodeaux, J. J., Rommel, R., & Simonsen, N. (2009). A systems approach to college drinking: development of a deterministic model for testing alcohol control policies. Journal of Studies On Alcohol and Drugs, 70(5), pp. 805-21.
Scribner R, et al. A Systems Approach to College Drinking: Development of a Deterministic Model for Testing Alcohol Control Policies. J Stud Alcohol Drugs. 2009;70(5):805-21. PubMed PMID: 19737506.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - A systems approach to college drinking: development of a deterministic model for testing alcohol control policies. AU - Scribner,Richard, AU - Ackleh,Azmy S, AU - Fitzpatrick,Ben G, AU - Jacquez,Geoffrey, AU - Thibodeaux,Jeremy J, AU - Rommel,Robert, AU - Simonsen,Neal, PY - 2009/9/10/entrez PY - 2009/9/10/pubmed PY - 2010/5/21/medline SP - 805 EP - 21 JF - Journal of studies on alcohol and drugs JO - J Stud Alcohol Drugs VL - 70 IS - 5 N2 - OBJECTIVE: The misuse and abuse of alcohol among college students remain persistent problems. Using a systems approach to understand the dynamics of student drinking behavior and thus forecasting the impact of campus policy to address the problem represents a novel approach. Toward this end, the successful development of a predictive mathematical model of college drinking would represent a significant advance for prevention efforts. METHOD: A deterministic, compartmental model of college drinking was developed, incorporating three processes: (1) individual factors, (2) social interactions, and (3) social norms. The model quantifies these processes in terms of the movement of students between drinking compartments characterized by five styles of college drinking: abstainers, light drinkers, moderate drinkers, problem drinkers, and heavy episodic drinkers. Predictions from the model were first compared with actual campus-level data and then used to predict the effects of several simulated interventions to address heavy episodic drinking. RESULTS: First, the model provides a reasonable fit of actual drinking styles of students attending Social Norms Marketing Research Project campuses varying by "wetness" and by drinking styles of matriculating students. Second, the model predicts that a combination of simulated interventions targeting heavy episodic drinkers at a moderately "dry" campus would extinguish heavy episodic drinkers, replacing them with light and moderate drinkers. Instituting the same combination of simulated interventions at a moderately "wet" campus would result in only a moderate reduction in heavy episodic drinkers (i.e., 50% to 35%). CONCLUSIONS: A simple, five-state compartmental model adequately predicted the actual drinking patterns of students from a variety of campuses surveyed in the Social Norms Marketing Research Project study. The model predicted the impact on drinking patterns of several simulated interventions to address heavy episodic drinking on various types of campuses. SN - 1938-4114 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/19737506/A_systems_approach_to_college_drinking:_development_of_a_deterministic_model_for_testing_alcohol_control_policies_ L2 - https://www.jsad.com/doi/abs/10.15288/jsad.2009.70.805 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -