Tags

Type your tag names separated by a space and hit enter

An evaluation of the impact of a large reduction in alcohol prices on alcohol-related and all-cause mortality: time series analysis of a population-based natural experiment.
Int J Epidemiol. 2011 Apr; 40(2):441-54.IJ

Abstract

BACKGROUND

We examined the effect of a large reduction in the price of alcohol that occurred in Finland in 2004 on alcohol-related and all-cause mortality, and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) from which alcohol-attributable cases were excluded.

METHODS

Time series intervention analysis modelling was applied to the monthly aggregations of deaths in Finland for the period 1996-2006 to assess the impact of the reduction in alcohol prices. Alcohol-related mortality was defined using information on both underlying and contributory causes of death. Analyses were carried out for men and women aged 15-39, 40-49, 50-69 and >69 years.

RESULTS

Alcohol-related deaths increased in men aged 40-49 years, and in men and women aged 50-69 years, after the price reduction when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account: the mean rate of alcohol-related mortality increased by 17% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5, 33.7], 14% (95% CI 1.1, 28.0) and 40% (95% CI) 7.1, 81.7), respectively, which implies 2.5, 2.9 and 1.6 additional monthly deaths per 100,000 person-years following the price reduction. In contrast to alcohol-related mortality, CVD and all-cause mortality decreased: among men and women aged >69 years a decrease of 7 and 10%, respectively, in CVD mortality implied 19 and 25 fewer monthly deaths per 100,000 person-years, and a decrease of 7 and 14%, respectively, in all-cause mortality similarly implied 42 and 69 fewer monthly deaths.

CONCLUSION

These results obtained from the time series analyses suggest that the reduction in alcohol prices led to an increase in alcohol-related mortality, except in persons <40 years of age. However, it appears that beneficial effects in older age, when CVD deaths are prevalent, counter-balance these adverse effects, at least to some extent.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Population Research Unit, Department of Sociology, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland. kimmo.herttua@helsinki.fiNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info available

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

19995860

Citation

Herttua, Kimmo, et al. "An Evaluation of the Impact of a Large Reduction in Alcohol Prices On Alcohol-related and All-cause Mortality: Time Series Analysis of a Population-based Natural Experiment." International Journal of Epidemiology, vol. 40, no. 2, 2011, pp. 441-54.
Herttua K, Mäkelä P, Martikainen P. An evaluation of the impact of a large reduction in alcohol prices on alcohol-related and all-cause mortality: time series analysis of a population-based natural experiment. Int J Epidemiol. 2011;40(2):441-54.
Herttua, K., Mäkelä, P., & Martikainen, P. (2011). An evaluation of the impact of a large reduction in alcohol prices on alcohol-related and all-cause mortality: time series analysis of a population-based natural experiment. International Journal of Epidemiology, 40(2), 441-54. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyp336
Herttua K, Mäkelä P, Martikainen P. An Evaluation of the Impact of a Large Reduction in Alcohol Prices On Alcohol-related and All-cause Mortality: Time Series Analysis of a Population-based Natural Experiment. Int J Epidemiol. 2011;40(2):441-54. PubMed PMID: 19995860.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - An evaluation of the impact of a large reduction in alcohol prices on alcohol-related and all-cause mortality: time series analysis of a population-based natural experiment. AU - Herttua,Kimmo, AU - Mäkelä,Pia, AU - Martikainen,Pekka, Y1 - 2009/12/07/ PY - 2009/12/10/entrez PY - 2009/12/10/pubmed PY - 2011/6/8/medline SP - 441 EP - 54 JF - International journal of epidemiology JO - Int J Epidemiol VL - 40 IS - 2 N2 - BACKGROUND: We examined the effect of a large reduction in the price of alcohol that occurred in Finland in 2004 on alcohol-related and all-cause mortality, and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) from which alcohol-attributable cases were excluded. METHODS: Time series intervention analysis modelling was applied to the monthly aggregations of deaths in Finland for the period 1996-2006 to assess the impact of the reduction in alcohol prices. Alcohol-related mortality was defined using information on both underlying and contributory causes of death. Analyses were carried out for men and women aged 15-39, 40-49, 50-69 and >69 years. RESULTS: Alcohol-related deaths increased in men aged 40-49 years, and in men and women aged 50-69 years, after the price reduction when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account: the mean rate of alcohol-related mortality increased by 17% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5, 33.7], 14% (95% CI 1.1, 28.0) and 40% (95% CI) 7.1, 81.7), respectively, which implies 2.5, 2.9 and 1.6 additional monthly deaths per 100,000 person-years following the price reduction. In contrast to alcohol-related mortality, CVD and all-cause mortality decreased: among men and women aged >69 years a decrease of 7 and 10%, respectively, in CVD mortality implied 19 and 25 fewer monthly deaths per 100,000 person-years, and a decrease of 7 and 14%, respectively, in all-cause mortality similarly implied 42 and 69 fewer monthly deaths. CONCLUSION: These results obtained from the time series analyses suggest that the reduction in alcohol prices led to an increase in alcohol-related mortality, except in persons <40 years of age. However, it appears that beneficial effects in older age, when CVD deaths are prevalent, counter-balance these adverse effects, at least to some extent. SN - 1464-3685 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/19995860/An_evaluation_of_the_impact_of_a_large_reduction_in_alcohol_prices_on_alcohol_related_and_all_cause_mortality:_time_series_analysis_of_a_population_based_natural_experiment_ L2 - https://academic.oup.com/ije/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/ije/dyp336 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -