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Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission.
Malar J. 2009 Dec 16; 8:296.MJ

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Malaria is an important threat to travelers visiting endemic regions. The risk of acquiring malaria is complex and a number of factors including transmission intensity, duration of exposure, season of the year and use of chemoprophylaxis have to be taken into account estimating risk.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A mathematical model was developed to estimate the risk of non-immune individual acquiring falciparum malaria when traveling to the Amazon region of Brazil. The risk of malaria infection to travelers was calculated as a function of duration of exposure and season of arrival.

RESULTS

The results suggest significant variation of risk for non-immune travelers depending on arrival season, duration of the visit and transmission intensity. The calculated risk for visitors staying longer than 4 months during peak transmission was 0.5% per visit.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling based on accurate data can be a valuable tool in assessing risk/benefits and cost/benefits when deciding on the value of interventions for travelers to malaria endemic regions.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Pathology, School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo and LIM 01-HCFMUSP, Rua Teodoro Sampaio, 115, CEP: 05405-000-São Paulo, S.P., Brazil. edmassad@dim.fm.usp.brNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info available

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

20015392

Citation

Massad, Eduardo, et al. "Modeling the Risk of Malaria for Travelers to Areas With Stable Malaria Transmission." Malaria Journal, vol. 8, 2009, p. 296.
Massad E, Behrens RH, Burattini MN, et al. Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission. Malar J. 2009;8:296.
Massad, E., Behrens, R. H., Burattini, M. N., & Coutinho, F. A. (2009). Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission. Malaria Journal, 8, 296. https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-8-296
Massad E, et al. Modeling the Risk of Malaria for Travelers to Areas With Stable Malaria Transmission. Malar J. 2009 Dec 16;8:296. PubMed PMID: 20015392.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission. AU - Massad,Eduardo, AU - Behrens,Ronald H, AU - Burattini,Marcelo N, AU - Coutinho,Francisco A B, Y1 - 2009/12/16/ PY - 2009/06/18/received PY - 2009/12/16/accepted PY - 2009/12/18/entrez PY - 2009/12/18/pubmed PY - 2010/2/18/medline SP - 296 EP - 296 JF - Malaria journal JO - Malar J VL - 8 N2 - BACKGROUND: Malaria is an important threat to travelers visiting endemic regions. The risk of acquiring malaria is complex and a number of factors including transmission intensity, duration of exposure, season of the year and use of chemoprophylaxis have to be taken into account estimating risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A mathematical model was developed to estimate the risk of non-immune individual acquiring falciparum malaria when traveling to the Amazon region of Brazil. The risk of malaria infection to travelers was calculated as a function of duration of exposure and season of arrival. RESULTS: The results suggest significant variation of risk for non-immune travelers depending on arrival season, duration of the visit and transmission intensity. The calculated risk for visitors staying longer than 4 months during peak transmission was 0.5% per visit. CONCLUSIONS: Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling based on accurate data can be a valuable tool in assessing risk/benefits and cost/benefits when deciding on the value of interventions for travelers to malaria endemic regions. SN - 1475-2875 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/20015392/Modeling_the_risk_of_malaria_for_travelers_to_areas_with_stable_malaria_transmission_ L2 - https://malariajournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1475-2875-8-296 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -