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[Mathematical modeling of the novel influenza A (H1N1) virus and evaluation of the epidemic response strategies in the Republic of Korea].
J Prev Med Public Health. 2010 Mar; 43(2):109-16.JP

Abstract

OBJECTIVES

The pandemic of novel influenza A (H1N1) virus has required decision-makers to act in the face of the substantial uncertainties. In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of the pandemic response strategies in the Republic of Korea using a mathematical model.

METHODS

We developed a deterministic model of a pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in a structured population using the demographic data from the Korean population and the epidemiological feature of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009. To estimate the parameter values for the deterministic model, we used the available data from the previous studies on pandemic influenza. The pandemic response strategies of the Republic of Korea for novel influenza A (H1N1) virus such as school closure, mass vaccination (70% of population in 30 days), and a policy for anti-viral drug (treatment or prophylaxis) were applied to the deterministic model.

RESULTS

The effect of two-week school closure on the attack rate was low regardless of the timing of the intervention. The earlier vaccination showed the effect of greater delays in reaching the peak of outbreaks. When it was no vaccination, vaccination at initiation of outbreak, vaccination 90 days after the initiation of outbreak and vaccination at the epidemic peak point, the total number of clinical cases for 400 days were 20.8 million, 4.4 million, 4.7 million and 12.6 million, respectively. The pandemic response strategies of the Republic of Korea delayed the peak of outbreaks (about 40 days) and decreased the number of cumulative clinical cases (8 million).

CONCLUSIONS

Rapid vaccination was the most important factor to control the spread of pandemic influenza, and the response strategies of the Republic of Korea were shown to delay the spread of pandemic influenza in this deterministic model.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Preventive Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Korea.No affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info available

Pub Type(s)

English Abstract
Journal Article

Language

kor

PubMed ID

20383043

Citation

Suh, Mina, et al. "[Mathematical Modeling of the Novel Influenza a (H1N1) Virus and Evaluation of the Epidemic Response Strategies in the Republic of Korea]." Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health = Yebang Uihakhoe Chi, vol. 43, no. 2, 2010, pp. 109-16.
Suh M, Lee J, Chi HJ, et al. [Mathematical modeling of the novel influenza A (H1N1) virus and evaluation of the epidemic response strategies in the Republic of Korea]. J Prev Med Public Health. 2010;43(2):109-16.
Suh, M., Lee, J., Chi, H. J., Kim, Y. K., Kang, D. Y., Hur, N. W., Ha, K. H., Lee, D. H., & Kim, C. S. (2010). [Mathematical modeling of the novel influenza A (H1N1) virus and evaluation of the epidemic response strategies in the Republic of Korea]. Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health = Yebang Uihakhoe Chi, 43(2), 109-16. https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.2010.43.2.109
Suh M, et al. [Mathematical Modeling of the Novel Influenza a (H1N1) Virus and Evaluation of the Epidemic Response Strategies in the Republic of Korea]. J Prev Med Public Health. 2010;43(2):109-16. PubMed PMID: 20383043.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - [Mathematical modeling of the novel influenza A (H1N1) virus and evaluation of the epidemic response strategies in the Republic of Korea]. AU - Suh,Mina, AU - Lee,Jeehyun, AU - Chi,Hye Jin, AU - Kim,Young Keun, AU - Kang,Dae Yong, AU - Hur,Nam Wook, AU - Ha,Kyung Hwa, AU - Lee,Dong Han, AU - Kim,Chang Soo, PY - 2010/4/13/entrez PY - 2010/4/13/pubmed PY - 2010/7/9/medline SP - 109 EP - 16 JF - Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi JO - J Prev Med Public Health VL - 43 IS - 2 N2 - OBJECTIVES: The pandemic of novel influenza A (H1N1) virus has required decision-makers to act in the face of the substantial uncertainties. In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of the pandemic response strategies in the Republic of Korea using a mathematical model. METHODS: We developed a deterministic model of a pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in a structured population using the demographic data from the Korean population and the epidemiological feature of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009. To estimate the parameter values for the deterministic model, we used the available data from the previous studies on pandemic influenza. The pandemic response strategies of the Republic of Korea for novel influenza A (H1N1) virus such as school closure, mass vaccination (70% of population in 30 days), and a policy for anti-viral drug (treatment or prophylaxis) were applied to the deterministic model. RESULTS: The effect of two-week school closure on the attack rate was low regardless of the timing of the intervention. The earlier vaccination showed the effect of greater delays in reaching the peak of outbreaks. When it was no vaccination, vaccination at initiation of outbreak, vaccination 90 days after the initiation of outbreak and vaccination at the epidemic peak point, the total number of clinical cases for 400 days were 20.8 million, 4.4 million, 4.7 million and 12.6 million, respectively. The pandemic response strategies of the Republic of Korea delayed the peak of outbreaks (about 40 days) and decreased the number of cumulative clinical cases (8 million). CONCLUSIONS: Rapid vaccination was the most important factor to control the spread of pandemic influenza, and the response strategies of the Republic of Korea were shown to delay the spread of pandemic influenza in this deterministic model. SN - 1975-8375 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/20383043/[Mathematical_modeling_of_the_novel_influenza_A__H1N1__virus_and_evaluation_of_the_epidemic_response_strategies_in_the_Republic_of_Korea]_ L2 - https://dx.doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.2010.43.2.109 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -