Tags

Type your tag names separated by a space and hit enter

Estimation of the basic reproduction number of enterovirus 71 and coxsackievirus A16 in hand, foot, and mouth disease outbreaks.
Pediatr Infect Dis J. 2011 Aug; 30(8):675-9.PI

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Coxsackievirus A16 (Cox A16) and enterovirus 71 (EV71) are common pathogens causing hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in pediatric population. Little is known about the basic reproductive number (R0) for these enteroviruses.

METHODS

We estimated the R0 of EV71 and of Cox A16 from laboratory-confirmed HFMD outbreaks reported to the Department of Health, from 2004 to 2009. We derived a mathematical model and calculated R₀ based on the cumulative number of cases at the initial growth phase of the outbreaks, as determined by the epidemic curves. We tested the association of R₀ with settings and sizes of the institution and total number of persons affected.

RESULTS

We analyzed 34 outbreaks, 27 caused by Cox A16 and 7 caused by EV71. Assuming the incubation period to be 5 days, the median R₀ of EV71 was 5.48 with an interquartile range of 4.20 to 6.51, whereas the median R₀ of Cox A16 was 2.50 with an interquartile range of 1.96 to 3.67. The R₀ of EV71 was significantly higher than that of CoxA16, P = 0.002; and sensitivity analysis showed the same results. The R₀ was not associated with outbreak settings, sizes of the institutions, or number of persons affected.

CONCLUSIONS

The R₀ for EV71 and for Cox A16 was determined using a model which showed that the R₀ for EV71 was higher than that of Cox A16. This finding helps better understand the transmission dynamics of HFMD outbreaks and formulate public health measures for controlling the disease.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Communicable Disease Division, Surveillance and Epidemiology Branch, Centre for Health Protection, Department of Health, Kowloon, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. edmond_ma@dh.gov.hkNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info available

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

21326133

Citation

Ma, Edmond, et al. "Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number of Enterovirus 71 and Coxsackievirus A16 in Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Outbreaks." The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal, vol. 30, no. 8, 2011, pp. 675-9.
Ma E, Fung C, Yip SH, et al. Estimation of the basic reproduction number of enterovirus 71 and coxsackievirus A16 in hand, foot, and mouth disease outbreaks. Pediatr Infect Dis J. 2011;30(8):675-9.
Ma, E., Fung, C., Yip, S. H., Wong, C., Chuang, S. K., & Tsang, T. (2011). Estimation of the basic reproduction number of enterovirus 71 and coxsackievirus A16 in hand, foot, and mouth disease outbreaks. The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal, 30(8), 675-9. https://doi.org/10.1097/INF.0b013e3182116e95
Ma E, et al. Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number of Enterovirus 71 and Coxsackievirus A16 in Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Outbreaks. Pediatr Infect Dis J. 2011;30(8):675-9. PubMed PMID: 21326133.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Estimation of the basic reproduction number of enterovirus 71 and coxsackievirus A16 in hand, foot, and mouth disease outbreaks. AU - Ma,Edmond, AU - Fung,Connie, AU - Yip,Steven H L, AU - Wong,Christine, AU - Chuang,Shuk Kwan, AU - Tsang,Thomas, PY - 2011/2/18/entrez PY - 2011/2/18/pubmed PY - 2011/11/1/medline SP - 675 EP - 9 JF - The Pediatric infectious disease journal JO - Pediatr. Infect. Dis. J. VL - 30 IS - 8 N2 - BACKGROUND: Coxsackievirus A16 (Cox A16) and enterovirus 71 (EV71) are common pathogens causing hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in pediatric population. Little is known about the basic reproductive number (R0) for these enteroviruses. METHODS: We estimated the R0 of EV71 and of Cox A16 from laboratory-confirmed HFMD outbreaks reported to the Department of Health, from 2004 to 2009. We derived a mathematical model and calculated R₀ based on the cumulative number of cases at the initial growth phase of the outbreaks, as determined by the epidemic curves. We tested the association of R₀ with settings and sizes of the institution and total number of persons affected. RESULTS: We analyzed 34 outbreaks, 27 caused by Cox A16 and 7 caused by EV71. Assuming the incubation period to be 5 days, the median R₀ of EV71 was 5.48 with an interquartile range of 4.20 to 6.51, whereas the median R₀ of Cox A16 was 2.50 with an interquartile range of 1.96 to 3.67. The R₀ of EV71 was significantly higher than that of CoxA16, P = 0.002; and sensitivity analysis showed the same results. The R₀ was not associated with outbreak settings, sizes of the institutions, or number of persons affected. CONCLUSIONS: The R₀ for EV71 and for Cox A16 was determined using a model which showed that the R₀ for EV71 was higher than that of Cox A16. This finding helps better understand the transmission dynamics of HFMD outbreaks and formulate public health measures for controlling the disease. SN - 1532-0987 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/21326133/Estimation_of_the_basic_reproduction_number_of_enterovirus_71_and_coxsackievirus_A16_in_hand_foot_and_mouth_disease_outbreaks_ L2 - http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/INF.0b013e3182116e95 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -