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Predicting the number of cases of dengue infection in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo State, Brazil, using a SARIMA model.
Cad Saude Publica. 2011 Sep; 27(9):1809-18.CS

Abstract

This study aimed to develop a forecasting model for the incidence of dengue in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo State, Brazil, using time series analysis. The model was performed using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). Firstly, we fitted a model considering monthly notifications of cases of dengue recorded from 2000 to 2008 in Ribeirão Preto. We then extracted predicted values for 2009 from the adjusted model and compared them with the number of cases observed for that year. The SARIMA (2,1,3)(1,1,1)12 model offered best fit for the dengue incidence data. The results showed that the seasonal ARIMA model predicts the number of dengue cases very effectively and reliably, and is a useful tool for disease control and prevention.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo, Brazil. edson@fmrp.usp.brNo affiliation info available

Pub Type(s)

Evaluation Study
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

21986608

Citation

Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi, and Elisângela Aparecida Soares da Silva. "Predicting the Number of Cases of Dengue Infection in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo State, Brazil, Using a SARIMA Model." Cadernos De Saude Publica, vol. 27, no. 9, 2011, pp. 1809-18.
Martinez EZ, Silva EA. Predicting the number of cases of dengue infection in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo State, Brazil, using a SARIMA model. Cad Saude Publica. 2011;27(9):1809-18.
Martinez, E. Z., & Silva, E. A. (2011). Predicting the number of cases of dengue infection in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo State, Brazil, using a SARIMA model. Cadernos De Saude Publica, 27(9), 1809-18.
Martinez EZ, Silva EA. Predicting the Number of Cases of Dengue Infection in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo State, Brazil, Using a SARIMA Model. Cad Saude Publica. 2011;27(9):1809-18. PubMed PMID: 21986608.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Predicting the number of cases of dengue infection in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo State, Brazil, using a SARIMA model. AU - Martinez,Edson Zangiacomi, AU - Silva,Elisângela Aparecida Soares da, PY - 2010/05/21/received PY - 2011/04/11/accepted PY - 2011/10/12/entrez PY - 2011/10/12/pubmed PY - 2012/2/24/medline SP - 1809 EP - 18 JF - Cadernos de saude publica JO - Cad Saude Publica VL - 27 IS - 9 N2 - This study aimed to develop a forecasting model for the incidence of dengue in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo State, Brazil, using time series analysis. The model was performed using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). Firstly, we fitted a model considering monthly notifications of cases of dengue recorded from 2000 to 2008 in Ribeirão Preto. We then extracted predicted values for 2009 from the adjusted model and compared them with the number of cases observed for that year. The SARIMA (2,1,3)(1,1,1)12 model offered best fit for the dengue incidence data. The results showed that the seasonal ARIMA model predicts the number of dengue cases very effectively and reliably, and is a useful tool for disease control and prevention. SN - 1678-4464 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/21986608/Predicting_the_number_of_cases_of_dengue_infection_in_Ribeirão_Preto_São_Paulo_State_Brazil_using_a_SARIMA_model_ L2 - http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-311X2011000900014&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=en DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -