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Modeling seasonal rabies epidemics in China.
Bull Math Biol. 2012 May; 74(5):1226-51.BM

Abstract

Human rabies, an infection of the nervous system, is a major public-health problem in China. In the last 60 years (1950-2010) there had been 124,255 reported human rabies cases, an average of 2,037 cases per year. However, the factors and mechanisms behind the persistence and prevalence of human rabies have not become well understood. The monthly data of human rabies cases reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health exhibits a periodic pattern on an annual base. The cases in the summer and autumn are significantly higher than in the spring and winter. Based on this observation, we propose a susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered (SEIRS) model with periodic transmission rates to investigate the seasonal rabies epidemics. We evaluate the basic reproduction number R (0), analyze the dynamical behavior of the model, and use the model to simulate the monthly data of human rabies cases reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health. We also carry out some sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number R (0) in terms of various model parameters. Moreover, we demonstrate that it is more reasonable to regard R (0) rather than the average basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] or the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] of the corresponding autonomous system as a threshold for the disease. Finally, our studies show that human rabies in China can be controlled by reducing the birth rate of dogs, increasing the immunization rate of dogs, enhancing public education and awareness about rabies, and strengthening supervision of pupils and children in the summer and autumn.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shan'xi, People's Republic of China.No affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info available

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

22383117

Citation

Zhang, Juan, et al. "Modeling Seasonal Rabies Epidemics in China." Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, vol. 74, no. 5, 2012, pp. 1226-51.
Zhang J, Jin Z, Sun GQ, et al. Modeling seasonal rabies epidemics in China. Bull Math Biol. 2012;74(5):1226-51.
Zhang, J., Jin, Z., Sun, G. Q., Sun, X. D., & Ruan, S. (2012). Modeling seasonal rabies epidemics in China. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 74(5), 1226-51. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-012-9720-6
Zhang J, et al. Modeling Seasonal Rabies Epidemics in China. Bull Math Biol. 2012;74(5):1226-51. PubMed PMID: 22383117.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Modeling seasonal rabies epidemics in China. AU - Zhang,Juan, AU - Jin,Zhen, AU - Sun,Gui-Quan, AU - Sun,Xiang-Dong, AU - Ruan,Shigui, Y1 - 2012/03/01/ PY - 2011/08/12/received PY - 2012/02/02/accepted PY - 2012/3/3/entrez PY - 2012/3/3/pubmed PY - 2012/7/28/medline SP - 1226 EP - 51 JF - Bulletin of mathematical biology JO - Bull Math Biol VL - 74 IS - 5 N2 - Human rabies, an infection of the nervous system, is a major public-health problem in China. In the last 60 years (1950-2010) there had been 124,255 reported human rabies cases, an average of 2,037 cases per year. However, the factors and mechanisms behind the persistence and prevalence of human rabies have not become well understood. The monthly data of human rabies cases reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health exhibits a periodic pattern on an annual base. The cases in the summer and autumn are significantly higher than in the spring and winter. Based on this observation, we propose a susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered (SEIRS) model with periodic transmission rates to investigate the seasonal rabies epidemics. We evaluate the basic reproduction number R (0), analyze the dynamical behavior of the model, and use the model to simulate the monthly data of human rabies cases reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health. We also carry out some sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number R (0) in terms of various model parameters. Moreover, we demonstrate that it is more reasonable to regard R (0) rather than the average basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] or the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] of the corresponding autonomous system as a threshold for the disease. Finally, our studies show that human rabies in China can be controlled by reducing the birth rate of dogs, increasing the immunization rate of dogs, enhancing public education and awareness about rabies, and strengthening supervision of pupils and children in the summer and autumn. SN - 1522-9602 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/22383117/Modeling_seasonal_rabies_epidemics_in_China_ L2 - https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-012-9720-6 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -