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Model-based projections of the population-level impact of hepatitis A vaccination in Mexico.
Hum Vaccin Immunother. 2012 Aug; 8(8):1099-108.HV

Abstract

There are indications of a shift in the pattern of hepatitis A (HAV) in Mexico from high to intermediate endemicity, progressively increasing the mean age of infection and the proportion of cases which are symptomatic. This study estimated the potential impact of universal infant HAV vaccination in Mexico with two doses of Havrix™ at 12 and 18 mo of age on all HAV infections and symptomatic HAV infections. We developed a dynamic transmission model that accounts for changes in demography and HAV epidemiology. It was calibrated using Mexican age-specific seroprevalence and symptomatic HAV incidence data. With 70% first-dose coverage and 85% second-dose coverage, the calibrated model projected that HAV vaccination would reduce the incidence of all HAV infections (symptomatic and asymptomatic) after the first 25 y of vaccination by 71-76% (minimum and maximum for different transmission scenarios). The projected reduction in cumulative incidence of symptomatic HAV infections over the first 25 y of vaccination was 45-51%. With 90% first-dose coverage and 85% second-dose coverage, the projected reduction in incidence of all HAV infections was 85-93%, and the projected reduction in the cumulative incidence of symptomatic HAV infections was 61-67%, over a 25-y time frame. Sensitivity analyses indicated that second-dose coverage is important under the conservative base-case assumptions made about the duration of vaccine protection. The model indicated that universal infant HAV vaccination could substantially reduce the burden of HAV disease in Mexico.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Global Clinical Research and Development; GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals, Wavre, Belgium. Thierry.Van-Effelterre@gskbio.comNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info available

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

22854667

Citation

Van Effelterre, Thierry, et al. "Model-based Projections of the Population-level Impact of Hepatitis a Vaccination in Mexico." Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics, vol. 8, no. 8, 2012, pp. 1099-108.
Van Effelterre T, De Antonio-Suarez R, Cassidy A, et al. Model-based projections of the population-level impact of hepatitis A vaccination in Mexico. Hum Vaccin Immunother. 2012;8(8):1099-108.
Van Effelterre, T., De Antonio-Suarez, R., Cassidy, A., Romano-Mazzotti, L., & Marano, C. (2012). Model-based projections of the population-level impact of hepatitis A vaccination in Mexico. Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics, 8(8), 1099-108. https://doi.org/10.4161/hv.20549
Van Effelterre T, et al. Model-based Projections of the Population-level Impact of Hepatitis a Vaccination in Mexico. Hum Vaccin Immunother. 2012;8(8):1099-108. PubMed PMID: 22854667.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Model-based projections of the population-level impact of hepatitis A vaccination in Mexico. AU - Van Effelterre,Thierry, AU - De Antonio-Suarez,Rodrigo, AU - Cassidy,Adrian, AU - Romano-Mazzotti,Luis, AU - Marano,Cinzia, Y1 - 2012/08/01/ PY - 2012/8/3/entrez PY - 2012/8/3/pubmed PY - 2013/5/17/medline SP - 1099 EP - 108 JF - Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics JO - Hum Vaccin Immunother VL - 8 IS - 8 N2 - There are indications of a shift in the pattern of hepatitis A (HAV) in Mexico from high to intermediate endemicity, progressively increasing the mean age of infection and the proportion of cases which are symptomatic. This study estimated the potential impact of universal infant HAV vaccination in Mexico with two doses of Havrix™ at 12 and 18 mo of age on all HAV infections and symptomatic HAV infections. We developed a dynamic transmission model that accounts for changes in demography and HAV epidemiology. It was calibrated using Mexican age-specific seroprevalence and symptomatic HAV incidence data. With 70% first-dose coverage and 85% second-dose coverage, the calibrated model projected that HAV vaccination would reduce the incidence of all HAV infections (symptomatic and asymptomatic) after the first 25 y of vaccination by 71-76% (minimum and maximum for different transmission scenarios). The projected reduction in cumulative incidence of symptomatic HAV infections over the first 25 y of vaccination was 45-51%. With 90% first-dose coverage and 85% second-dose coverage, the projected reduction in incidence of all HAV infections was 85-93%, and the projected reduction in the cumulative incidence of symptomatic HAV infections was 61-67%, over a 25-y time frame. Sensitivity analyses indicated that second-dose coverage is important under the conservative base-case assumptions made about the duration of vaccine protection. The model indicated that universal infant HAV vaccination could substantially reduce the burden of HAV disease in Mexico. SN - 2164-554X UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/22854667/Model_based_projections_of_the_population_level_impact_of_hepatitis_A_vaccination_in_Mexico_ L2 - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.4161/hv.20549 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -