Tags

Type your tag names separated by a space and hit enter

The global distribution and burden of dengue.
Nature. 2013 Apr 25; 496(7446):504-7.Nat

Abstract

Dengue is a systemic viral infection transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes. For some patients, dengue is a life-threatening illness. There are currently no licensed vaccines or specific therapeutics, and substantial vector control efforts have not stopped its rapid emergence and global spread. The contemporary worldwide distribution of the risk of dengue virus infection and its public health burden are poorly known. Here we undertake an exhaustive assembly of known records of dengue occurrence worldwide, and use a formal modelling framework to map the global distribution of dengue risk. We then pair the resulting risk map with detailed longitudinal information from dengue cohort studies and population surfaces to infer the public health burden of dengue in 2010. We predict dengue to be ubiquitous throughout the tropics, with local spatial variations in risk influenced strongly by rainfall, temperature and the degree of urbanization. Using cartographic approaches, we estimate there to be 390 million (95% credible interval 284-528) dengue infections per year, of which 96 million (67-136) manifest apparently (any level of disease severity). This infection total is more than three times the dengue burden estimate of the World Health Organization. Stratification of our estimates by country allows comparison with national dengue reporting, after taking into account the probability of an apparent infection being formally reported. The most notable differences are discussed. These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue. We anticipate that they will provide a starting point for a wider discussion about the global impact of this disease and will help to guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods, and in their economic evaluation.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.No affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info available

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

Language

eng

PubMed ID

23563266

Citation

Bhatt, Samir, et al. "The Global Distribution and Burden of Dengue." Nature, vol. 496, no. 7446, 2013, pp. 504-7.
Bhatt S, Gething PW, Brady OJ, et al. The global distribution and burden of dengue. Nature. 2013;496(7446):504-7.
Bhatt, S., Gething, P. W., Brady, O. J., Messina, J. P., Farlow, A. W., Moyes, C. L., Drake, J. M., Brownstein, J. S., Hoen, A. G., Sankoh, O., Myers, M. F., George, D. B., Jaenisch, T., Wint, G. R., Simmons, C. P., Scott, T. W., Farrar, J. J., & Hay, S. I. (2013). The global distribution and burden of dengue. Nature, 496(7446), 504-7. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12060
Bhatt S, et al. The Global Distribution and Burden of Dengue. Nature. 2013 Apr 25;496(7446):504-7. PubMed PMID: 23563266.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - The global distribution and burden of dengue. AU - Bhatt,Samir, AU - Gething,Peter W, AU - Brady,Oliver J, AU - Messina,Jane P, AU - Farlow,Andrew W, AU - Moyes,Catherine L, AU - Drake,John M, AU - Brownstein,John S, AU - Hoen,Anne G, AU - Sankoh,Osman, AU - Myers,Monica F, AU - George,Dylan B, AU - Jaenisch,Thomas, AU - Wint,G R William, AU - Simmons,Cameron P, AU - Scott,Thomas W, AU - Farrar,Jeremy J, AU - Hay,Simon I, Y1 - 2013/04/07/ PY - 2012/10/08/received PY - 2013/03/07/accepted PY - 2013/4/9/entrez PY - 2013/4/9/pubmed PY - 2013/5/15/medline SP - 504 EP - 7 JF - Nature JO - Nature VL - 496 IS - 7446 N2 - Dengue is a systemic viral infection transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes. For some patients, dengue is a life-threatening illness. There are currently no licensed vaccines or specific therapeutics, and substantial vector control efforts have not stopped its rapid emergence and global spread. The contemporary worldwide distribution of the risk of dengue virus infection and its public health burden are poorly known. Here we undertake an exhaustive assembly of known records of dengue occurrence worldwide, and use a formal modelling framework to map the global distribution of dengue risk. We then pair the resulting risk map with detailed longitudinal information from dengue cohort studies and population surfaces to infer the public health burden of dengue in 2010. We predict dengue to be ubiquitous throughout the tropics, with local spatial variations in risk influenced strongly by rainfall, temperature and the degree of urbanization. Using cartographic approaches, we estimate there to be 390 million (95% credible interval 284-528) dengue infections per year, of which 96 million (67-136) manifest apparently (any level of disease severity). This infection total is more than three times the dengue burden estimate of the World Health Organization. Stratification of our estimates by country allows comparison with national dengue reporting, after taking into account the probability of an apparent infection being formally reported. The most notable differences are discussed. These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue. We anticipate that they will provide a starting point for a wider discussion about the global impact of this disease and will help to guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods, and in their economic evaluation. SN - 1476-4687 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/23563266/full_citation L2 - https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12060 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -