Tags

Type your tag names separated by a space and hit enter

Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification.
Glob Chang Biol. 2013 Dec; 19(12):3592-606.GC

Abstract

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40-70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered 'marginal' for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral reef ecosystems is essential to their conservation and management under a changing climate.

Authors+Show Affiliations

School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK; School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1RJ, UK.No affiliation info availableNo affiliation info available

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

23893550

Citation

Couce, Elena, et al. "Future Habitat Suitability for Coral Reef Ecosystems Under Global Warming and Ocean Acidification." Global Change Biology, vol. 19, no. 12, 2013, pp. 3592-606.
Couce E, Ridgwell A, Hendy EJ. Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification. Glob Chang Biol. 2013;19(12):3592-606.
Couce, E., Ridgwell, A., & Hendy, E. J. (2013). Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification. Global Change Biology, 19(12), 3592-606. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12335
Couce E, Ridgwell A, Hendy EJ. Future Habitat Suitability for Coral Reef Ecosystems Under Global Warming and Ocean Acidification. Glob Chang Biol. 2013;19(12):3592-606. PubMed PMID: 23893550.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification. AU - Couce,Elena, AU - Ridgwell,Andy, AU - Hendy,Erica J, Y1 - 2013/10/08/ PY - 2013/05/15/received PY - 2013/06/19/accepted PY - 2013/7/30/entrez PY - 2013/7/31/pubmed PY - 2014/11/7/medline KW - Bioclimatic Envelope Modeling KW - MaxEnt KW - boosted regression trees KW - coral reef ecosystems KW - global warming KW - maximum entropy KW - ocean acidification SP - 3592 EP - 606 JF - Global change biology JO - Glob Chang Biol VL - 19 IS - 12 N2 - Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40-70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered 'marginal' for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral reef ecosystems is essential to their conservation and management under a changing climate. SN - 1365-2486 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/23893550/Future_habitat_suitability_for_coral_reef_ecosystems_under_global_warming_and_ocean_acidification_ L2 - https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12335 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -