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Meteorological variables and bacillary dysentery cases in Changsha City, China.
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2014 Apr; 90(4):697-704.AJ

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the association between meteorological-related risk factors and bacillary dysentery in a subtropical inland Chinese area: Changsha City. The cross-correlation analysis and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) model were used to quantify the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of bacillary dysentery. Monthly mean temperature, mean relative humidity, mean air pressure, mean maximum temperature, and mean minimum temperature were significantly correlated with the number of bacillary dysentery cases with a 1-month lagged effect. The ARIMAX models suggested that a 1°C rise in mean temperature, mean maximum temperature, and mean minimum temperature might lead to 14.8%, 12.9%, and 15.5% increases in the incidence of bacillary dysentery disease, respectively. Temperature could be used as a forecast factor for the increase of bacillary dysentery in Changsha. More public health actions should be taken to prevent the increase of bacillary dysentery disease with consideration of local climate conditions, especially temperature.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan City, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China; School of Public Health, China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; School of Population Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia; Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Taishan Medical College, Taian City, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China; State Key Laboratory for Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing City, People's Republic of China; National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing City, People's Republic of China.No affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info available

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

24591435

Citation

Gao, Lu, et al. "Meteorological Variables and Bacillary Dysentery Cases in Changsha City, China." The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, vol. 90, no. 4, 2014, pp. 697-704.
Gao L, Zhang Y, Ding G, et al. Meteorological variables and bacillary dysentery cases in Changsha City, China. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2014;90(4):697-704.
Gao, L., Zhang, Y., Ding, G., Liu, Q., Zhou, M., Li, X., & Jiang, B. (2014). Meteorological variables and bacillary dysentery cases in Changsha City, China. The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 90(4), 697-704. https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.13-0198
Gao L, et al. Meteorological Variables and Bacillary Dysentery Cases in Changsha City, China. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2014;90(4):697-704. PubMed PMID: 24591435.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Meteorological variables and bacillary dysentery cases in Changsha City, China. AU - Gao,Lu, AU - Zhang,Ying, AU - Ding,Guoyong, AU - Liu,Qiyong, AU - Zhou,Maigeng, AU - Li,Xiujun, AU - Jiang,Baofa, Y1 - 2014/03/03/ PY - 2014/3/5/entrez PY - 2014/3/5/pubmed PY - 2014/5/27/medline SP - 697 EP - 704 JF - The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene JO - Am J Trop Med Hyg VL - 90 IS - 4 N2 - This study aimed to investigate the association between meteorological-related risk factors and bacillary dysentery in a subtropical inland Chinese area: Changsha City. The cross-correlation analysis and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) model were used to quantify the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of bacillary dysentery. Monthly mean temperature, mean relative humidity, mean air pressure, mean maximum temperature, and mean minimum temperature were significantly correlated with the number of bacillary dysentery cases with a 1-month lagged effect. The ARIMAX models suggested that a 1°C rise in mean temperature, mean maximum temperature, and mean minimum temperature might lead to 14.8%, 12.9%, and 15.5% increases in the incidence of bacillary dysentery disease, respectively. Temperature could be used as a forecast factor for the increase of bacillary dysentery in Changsha. More public health actions should be taken to prevent the increase of bacillary dysentery disease with consideration of local climate conditions, especially temperature. SN - 1476-1645 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/24591435/Meteorological_variables_and_bacillary_dysentery_cases_in_Changsha_City_China_ L2 - http://www.ajtmh.org/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.13-0198?crawler=true&mimetype=application/pdf DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -