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Time-series analysis on human brucellosis during 2004-2013 in Shandong Province, China.
Zoonoses Public Health. 2015 May; 62(3):228-35.ZP

Abstract

Human brucellosis is a re-emerging bacterial anthropozoonotic disease, which remains a public health concern in China with the growing number of cases and more widespread natural foci. The purpose of this study was to short-term forecast the incidence of human brucellosis with a prediction model. We collected the annual and monthly laboratory data of confirmed cases from January 2004 to December 2013 in Shandong Diseases Reporting Information System (SDRIS). Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was fitted based on the monthly human brucellosis incidence from 2004 to 2013. Finally, monthly brucellosis incidences in 2014 were short-term forecasted by the obtained model. The incidence of brucellosis was increasing from 2004 to 2013. For the ARIMA (0, 2, 1) model, the white noise diagnostic check (x(2) = 5.58 P = 0.35) for residuals obtained was revealed by the optimum goodness-of-fit test. The monthly incidences that fitted by ARIMA (0, 2, 1) model were closely consistent with the real incidence from 2004 to 2013. And forecasting incidences from January 2014 to December 2014 were, respectively, 0.101, 0.118, 0.143, 0.166, 0.160, 0.172, 0.169, 0.133, 0.122, 0.105, 0.103 and 0.079 per100 000 population, with standard error 0.011-0.019 and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 58.79%.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Shandong University School of Public Health, Jinan, China.No affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info available

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

25043064

Citation

Yang, L, et al. "Time-series Analysis On Human Brucellosis During 2004-2013 in Shandong Province, China." Zoonoses and Public Health, vol. 62, no. 3, 2015, pp. 228-35.
Yang L, Bi ZW, Kou ZQ, et al. Time-series analysis on human brucellosis during 2004-2013 in Shandong Province, China. Zoonoses Public Health. 2015;62(3):228-35.
Yang, L., Bi, Z. W., Kou, Z. Q., Li, X. J., Zhang, M., Wang, M., Zhang, L. Y., & Zhao, Z. T. (2015). Time-series analysis on human brucellosis during 2004-2013 in Shandong Province, China. Zoonoses and Public Health, 62(3), 228-35. https://doi.org/10.1111/zph.12145
Yang L, et al. Time-series Analysis On Human Brucellosis During 2004-2013 in Shandong Province, China. Zoonoses Public Health. 2015;62(3):228-35. PubMed PMID: 25043064.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Time-series analysis on human brucellosis during 2004-2013 in Shandong Province, China. AU - Yang,L, AU - Bi,Z-W, AU - Kou,Z-Q, AU - Li,X-J, AU - Zhang,M, AU - Wang,M, AU - Zhang,L-Y, AU - Zhao,Z-T, Y1 - 2014/07/16/ PY - 2014/02/24/received PY - 2014/7/22/entrez PY - 2014/7/22/pubmed PY - 2017/4/14/medline KW - Time-series KW - autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models KW - disease prediction KW - human Brucellosis SP - 228 EP - 35 JF - Zoonoses and public health JO - Zoonoses Public Health VL - 62 IS - 3 N2 - Human brucellosis is a re-emerging bacterial anthropozoonotic disease, which remains a public health concern in China with the growing number of cases and more widespread natural foci. The purpose of this study was to short-term forecast the incidence of human brucellosis with a prediction model. We collected the annual and monthly laboratory data of confirmed cases from January 2004 to December 2013 in Shandong Diseases Reporting Information System (SDRIS). Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was fitted based on the monthly human brucellosis incidence from 2004 to 2013. Finally, monthly brucellosis incidences in 2014 were short-term forecasted by the obtained model. The incidence of brucellosis was increasing from 2004 to 2013. For the ARIMA (0, 2, 1) model, the white noise diagnostic check (x(2) = 5.58 P = 0.35) for residuals obtained was revealed by the optimum goodness-of-fit test. The monthly incidences that fitted by ARIMA (0, 2, 1) model were closely consistent with the real incidence from 2004 to 2013. And forecasting incidences from January 2014 to December 2014 were, respectively, 0.101, 0.118, 0.143, 0.166, 0.160, 0.172, 0.169, 0.133, 0.122, 0.105, 0.103 and 0.079 per100 000 population, with standard error 0.011-0.019 and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 58.79%. SN - 1863-2378 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/25043064/Time_series_analysis_on_human_brucellosis_during_2004_2013_in_Shandong_Province_China_ L2 - https://doi.org/10.1111/zph.12145 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -