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Prevalence and incidence trends for diagnosed diabetes among adults aged 20 to 79 years, United States, 1980-2012.
JAMA. 2014 Sep 24; 312(12):1218-26.JAMA

Abstract

IMPORTANCE

Although the prevalence and incidence of diabetes have increased in the United States in recent decades, no studies have systematically examined long-term, national trends in the prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes.

OBJECTIVE

To examine long-term trends in the prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes to determine whether there have been periods of acceleration or deceleration in rates.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

We analyzed 1980-2012 data for 664,969 adults aged 20 to 79 years from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to estimate incidence and prevalence rates for the overall civilian, noninstitutionalized, US population and by demographic subgroups (age group, sex, race/ethnicity, and educational level).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The annual percentage change (APC) in rates of the prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes (type 1 and type 2 combined).

RESULTS

The APC for age-adjusted prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes did not change significantly during the 1980s (for prevalence, 0.2% [95% CI, -0.9% to 1.4%], P = .69; for incidence, -0.1% [95% CI, -2.5% to 2.4%], P = .93), but each increased sharply during 1990-2008 (for prevalence, 4.5% [95% CI, 4.1% to 4.9%], P < .001; for incidence, 4.7% [95% CI, 3.8% to 5.6%], P < .001) before leveling off with no significant change during 2008-2012 (for prevalence, 0.6% [95% CI, -1.9% to 3.0%], P = .64; for incidence, -5.4% [95% CI, -11.3% to 0.9%], P = .09). The prevalence per 100 persons was 3.5 (95% CI, 3.2 to 3.9) in 1990, 7.9 (95% CI, 7.4 to 8.3) in 2008, and 8.3 (95% CI, 7.9 to 8.7) in 2012. The incidence per 1000 persons was 3.2 (95% CI, 2.2 to 4.1) in 1990, 8.8 (95% CI, 7.4 to 10.3) in 2008, and 7.1 (95% CI, 6.1 to 8.2) in 2012. Trends in many demographic subpopulations were similar to these overall trends. However, incidence rates among non-Hispanic black and Hispanic adults continued to increase (for interaction, P = .03 for non-Hispanic black adults and P = .01 for Hispanic adults) at rates significantly greater than for non-Hispanic white adults. In addition, the rate of increase in prevalence was higher for adults who had a high school education or less compared with those who had more than a high school education (for interaction, P = .006 for <high school and P < .001 for high school).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Analyses of nationally representative data from 1980 to 2012 suggest a doubling of the incidence and prevalence of diabetes during 1990-2008, and a plateauing between 2008 and 2012. However, there appear to be continued increases in the prevalence or incidence of diabetes among subgroups, including non-Hispanic black and Hispanic subpopulations and those with a high school education or less.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

25247518

Citation

Geiss, Linda S., et al. "Prevalence and Incidence Trends for Diagnosed Diabetes Among Adults Aged 20 to 79 Years, United States, 1980-2012." JAMA, vol. 312, no. 12, 2014, pp. 1218-26.
Geiss LS, Wang J, Cheng YJ, et al. Prevalence and incidence trends for diagnosed diabetes among adults aged 20 to 79 years, United States, 1980-2012. JAMA. 2014;312(12):1218-26.
Geiss, L. S., Wang, J., Cheng, Y. J., Thompson, T. J., Barker, L., Li, Y., Albright, A. L., & Gregg, E. W. (2014). Prevalence and incidence trends for diagnosed diabetes among adults aged 20 to 79 years, United States, 1980-2012. JAMA, 312(12), 1218-26. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2014.11494
Geiss LS, et al. Prevalence and Incidence Trends for Diagnosed Diabetes Among Adults Aged 20 to 79 Years, United States, 1980-2012. JAMA. 2014 Sep 24;312(12):1218-26. PubMed PMID: 25247518.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Prevalence and incidence trends for diagnosed diabetes among adults aged 20 to 79 years, United States, 1980-2012. AU - Geiss,Linda S, AU - Wang,Jing, AU - Cheng,Yiling J, AU - Thompson,Theodore J, AU - Barker,Lawrence, AU - Li,Yanfeng, AU - Albright,Ann L, AU - Gregg,Edward W, PY - 2014/9/24/entrez PY - 2014/9/24/pubmed PY - 2014/10/23/medline SP - 1218 EP - 26 JF - JAMA JO - JAMA VL - 312 IS - 12 N2 - IMPORTANCE: Although the prevalence and incidence of diabetes have increased in the United States in recent decades, no studies have systematically examined long-term, national trends in the prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes. OBJECTIVE: To examine long-term trends in the prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes to determine whether there have been periods of acceleration or deceleration in rates. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We analyzed 1980-2012 data for 664,969 adults aged 20 to 79 years from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to estimate incidence and prevalence rates for the overall civilian, noninstitutionalized, US population and by demographic subgroups (age group, sex, race/ethnicity, and educational level). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The annual percentage change (APC) in rates of the prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes (type 1 and type 2 combined). RESULTS: The APC for age-adjusted prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes did not change significantly during the 1980s (for prevalence, 0.2% [95% CI, -0.9% to 1.4%], P = .69; for incidence, -0.1% [95% CI, -2.5% to 2.4%], P = .93), but each increased sharply during 1990-2008 (for prevalence, 4.5% [95% CI, 4.1% to 4.9%], P < .001; for incidence, 4.7% [95% CI, 3.8% to 5.6%], P < .001) before leveling off with no significant change during 2008-2012 (for prevalence, 0.6% [95% CI, -1.9% to 3.0%], P = .64; for incidence, -5.4% [95% CI, -11.3% to 0.9%], P = .09). The prevalence per 100 persons was 3.5 (95% CI, 3.2 to 3.9) in 1990, 7.9 (95% CI, 7.4 to 8.3) in 2008, and 8.3 (95% CI, 7.9 to 8.7) in 2012. The incidence per 1000 persons was 3.2 (95% CI, 2.2 to 4.1) in 1990, 8.8 (95% CI, 7.4 to 10.3) in 2008, and 7.1 (95% CI, 6.1 to 8.2) in 2012. Trends in many demographic subpopulations were similar to these overall trends. However, incidence rates among non-Hispanic black and Hispanic adults continued to increase (for interaction, P = .03 for non-Hispanic black adults and P = .01 for Hispanic adults) at rates significantly greater than for non-Hispanic white adults. In addition, the rate of increase in prevalence was higher for adults who had a high school education or less compared with those who had more than a high school education (for interaction, P = .006 for <high school and P < .001 for high school). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Analyses of nationally representative data from 1980 to 2012 suggest a doubling of the incidence and prevalence of diabetes during 1990-2008, and a plateauing between 2008 and 2012. However, there appear to be continued increases in the prevalence or incidence of diabetes among subgroups, including non-Hispanic black and Hispanic subpopulations and those with a high school education or less. SN - 1538-3598 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/25247518/Prevalence_and_incidence_trends_for_diagnosed_diabetes_among_adults_aged_20_to_79_years_United_States_1980_2012_ L2 - https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/10.1001/jama.2014.11494 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -