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The estimation of imported dengue virus from Thailand.
J Travel Med. 2015 May-Jun; 22(3):194-9.JT

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever is one of the important causes of illness among travelers returning from Thailand. The risk of infection depends on the length of stay, activities, and arrival time. Due to globalization, there is a concern that infected travelers may carry dengue virus (DENV) to their country of residence and cause an outbreak.

METHODS

To estimate the infective person-days of travelers returning from Thailand, we developed a model with the following parameters: the probability of travelers being infected, number of arrivals, length of stay of travelers, incubation period, and duration of the infective period. The data used in this study were the dengue incidences in Thailand during 2004-2013 and foreign traveler arrivals in 2013.

RESULTS

We estimated the highest infective person-days for each country group. The highest value was from June to August during the rainy season in Thailand for all groups. Infective person-days ranged from 87 to 112 per 100,000 travelers each year.

CONCLUSION

Our results provided a fundamental step toward estimation of the risk of the secondary transmission of DENV in non-epidemic countries via travelers, which can serve as an early warning of a dengue outbreak. The highest infective person-day is associated with the rainy season in Thailand. The increasing number of overseas travelers may increase the risk of global transmission of the DENV. Better understanding of the virus transmission dynamics will enable further quantitative predictions of epidemic risk.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Mathematics, Silapakorn University, Muang, Nakorn Pathom, Thailand.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

25728849

Citation

Polwiang, Sittisede. "The Estimation of Imported Dengue Virus From Thailand." Journal of Travel Medicine, vol. 22, no. 3, 2015, pp. 194-9.
Polwiang S. The estimation of imported dengue virus from Thailand. J Travel Med. 2015;22(3):194-9.
Polwiang, S. (2015). The estimation of imported dengue virus from Thailand. Journal of Travel Medicine, 22(3), 194-9. https://doi.org/10.1111/jtm.12193
Polwiang S. The Estimation of Imported Dengue Virus From Thailand. J Travel Med. 2015 May-Jun;22(3):194-9. PubMed PMID: 25728849.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - The estimation of imported dengue virus from Thailand. A1 - Polwiang,Sittisede, Y1 - 2015/02/28/ PY - 2014/08/24/received PY - 2014/12/16/revised PY - 2015/01/19/accepted PY - 2015/3/3/entrez PY - 2015/3/3/pubmed PY - 2016/2/2/medline SP - 194 EP - 9 JF - Journal of travel medicine JO - J Travel Med VL - 22 IS - 3 N2 - BACKGROUND: Dengue fever is one of the important causes of illness among travelers returning from Thailand. The risk of infection depends on the length of stay, activities, and arrival time. Due to globalization, there is a concern that infected travelers may carry dengue virus (DENV) to their country of residence and cause an outbreak. METHODS: To estimate the infective person-days of travelers returning from Thailand, we developed a model with the following parameters: the probability of travelers being infected, number of arrivals, length of stay of travelers, incubation period, and duration of the infective period. The data used in this study were the dengue incidences in Thailand during 2004-2013 and foreign traveler arrivals in 2013. RESULTS: We estimated the highest infective person-days for each country group. The highest value was from June to August during the rainy season in Thailand for all groups. Infective person-days ranged from 87 to 112 per 100,000 travelers each year. CONCLUSION: Our results provided a fundamental step toward estimation of the risk of the secondary transmission of DENV in non-epidemic countries via travelers, which can serve as an early warning of a dengue outbreak. The highest infective person-day is associated with the rainy season in Thailand. The increasing number of overseas travelers may increase the risk of global transmission of the DENV. Better understanding of the virus transmission dynamics will enable further quantitative predictions of epidemic risk. SN - 1708-8305 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/25728849/The_estimation_of_imported_dengue_virus_from_Thailand_ L2 - https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article-lookup/doi/10.1111/jtm.12193 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -
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