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Estimating air travel-associated importations of dengue virus into Italy.
J Travel Med. 2015 May-Jun; 22(3):186-93.JT

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Southern Europe is increasingly at risk for dengue emergence, given the seasonal presence of relevant mosquito vectors and suitable climatic conditions. For example, Aedes mosquitoes, the main vector for both dengue and chikungunya, are abundant in Italy, and Italy experienced the first ever outbreak of chikungunya in Europe in 2007. We set out to estimate the extent of dengue virus importations into Italy via air travelers.

METHODS

We attempted to quantify the number of dengue virus importations based on modeling of published estimates on dengue incidence in the countries of disembarkation and analysis of data on comprehensive air travel from these countries into Italy's largest international airport in Rome.

RESULTS

From 2005 to 2012, more than 7.3 million air passengers departing from 100 dengue-endemic countries arrived in Rome. Our Importation Model, which included air traveler volume, estimated the incidence of dengue infections in the countries of disembarkation, and the probability of infection coinciding with travel accounted for an average of 2,320 (1,621-3,255) imported dengue virus infections per year, of which 572 (381-858) were "apparent" dengue infections and 1,747 (1,240-2,397) "inapparent."

CONCLUSIONS

Between 2005 and 2012, we found an increasing trend of dengue virus infections imported into Rome via air travel, which may pose a potential threat for future emergence of dengue in Italy, given that the reoccurring pattern of peak importations corresponds seasonally with periods of relevant mosquito vector activity. The observed increasing annual trends of dengue importation and the consistent peaks in late summer underpin the urgency in determining the threshold levels for the vector and infected human populations that could facilitate novel autochthonous transmission of dengue in Europe.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health Unit, Umeå University, Umeå, Västerbotten, Sweden; Institute of Public Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany.No affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info availableNo affiliation info available

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

25756472

Citation

Quam, Mikkel B., et al. "Estimating Air Travel-associated Importations of Dengue Virus Into Italy." Journal of Travel Medicine, vol. 22, no. 3, 2015, pp. 186-93.
Quam MB, Khan K, Sears J, et al. Estimating air travel-associated importations of dengue virus into Italy. J Travel Med. 2015;22(3):186-93.
Quam, M. B., Khan, K., Sears, J., Hu, W., Rocklöv, J., & Wilder-Smith, A. (2015). Estimating air travel-associated importations of dengue virus into Italy. Journal of Travel Medicine, 22(3), 186-93. https://doi.org/10.1111/jtm.12192
Quam MB, et al. Estimating Air Travel-associated Importations of Dengue Virus Into Italy. J Travel Med. 2015 May-Jun;22(3):186-93. PubMed PMID: 25756472.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Estimating air travel-associated importations of dengue virus into Italy. AU - Quam,Mikkel B, AU - Khan,Kamran, AU - Sears,Jennifer, AU - Hu,Wei, AU - Rocklöv,Joacim, AU - Wilder-Smith,Annelies, Y1 - 2015/03/10/ PY - 2014/09/14/received PY - 2014/11/24/revised PY - 2014/12/01/accepted PY - 2015/3/11/entrez PY - 2015/3/11/pubmed PY - 2016/2/2/medline SP - 186 EP - 93 JF - Journal of travel medicine JO - J Travel Med VL - 22 IS - 3 N2 - BACKGROUND: Southern Europe is increasingly at risk for dengue emergence, given the seasonal presence of relevant mosquito vectors and suitable climatic conditions. For example, Aedes mosquitoes, the main vector for both dengue and chikungunya, are abundant in Italy, and Italy experienced the first ever outbreak of chikungunya in Europe in 2007. We set out to estimate the extent of dengue virus importations into Italy via air travelers. METHODS: We attempted to quantify the number of dengue virus importations based on modeling of published estimates on dengue incidence in the countries of disembarkation and analysis of data on comprehensive air travel from these countries into Italy's largest international airport in Rome. RESULTS: From 2005 to 2012, more than 7.3 million air passengers departing from 100 dengue-endemic countries arrived in Rome. Our Importation Model, which included air traveler volume, estimated the incidence of dengue infections in the countries of disembarkation, and the probability of infection coinciding with travel accounted for an average of 2,320 (1,621-3,255) imported dengue virus infections per year, of which 572 (381-858) were "apparent" dengue infections and 1,747 (1,240-2,397) "inapparent." CONCLUSIONS: Between 2005 and 2012, we found an increasing trend of dengue virus infections imported into Rome via air travel, which may pose a potential threat for future emergence of dengue in Italy, given that the reoccurring pattern of peak importations corresponds seasonally with periods of relevant mosquito vector activity. The observed increasing annual trends of dengue importation and the consistent peaks in late summer underpin the urgency in determining the threshold levels for the vector and infected human populations that could facilitate novel autochthonous transmission of dengue in Europe. SN - 1708-8305 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/25756472/Estimating_air_travel_associated_importations_of_dengue_virus_into_Italy_ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -