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Extinctions. Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans.
Science. 2015 May 01; 348(6234):567-70.Sci

Abstract

Marine taxa are threatened by anthropogenic impacts, but knowledge of their extinction vulnerabilities is limited. The fossil record provides rich information on past extinctions that can help predict biotic responses. We show that over 23 million years, taxonomic membership and geographic range size consistently explain a large proportion of extinction risk variation in six major taxonomic groups. We assess intrinsic risk-extinction risk predicted by paleontologically calibrated models-for modern genera in these groups. Mapping the geographic distribution of these genera identifies coastal biogeographic provinces where fauna with high intrinsic risk are strongly affected by human activity or climate change. Such regions are disproportionately in the tropics, raising the possibility that these ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to future extinctions. Intrinsic risk provides a prehuman baseline for considering current threats to marine biodiversity.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA. sethf@berkeley.edu.Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia V5A 1S6, Canada.Department of Earth and Environment, Franklin and Marshall College, Lancaster, PA 17604, USA.Department of Paleobiology, National Museum of Natural History, Washington, DC 20013, USA.United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK. Computational Science Laboratory, Microsoft Research, Cambridge CB1 2FB, UK. Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2, Canada.Department of Biology, University of Massachusetts, Boston, MA 02125, USA.Environmental Science Program, Mount Allison University, Sackville, New Brunswick E4L 1A5, Canada.Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.Center for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway.Department of Geology, College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA 23187, USA.Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2, Canada.National Evolutionary Synthesis Center, Durham, NC 27705, USA.School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, 0843-03092, Balboa, Republic of Panamá.Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

Language

eng

PubMed ID

25931558

Citation

Finnegan, Seth, et al. "Extinctions. Paleontological Baselines for Evaluating Extinction Risk in the Modern Oceans." Science (New York, N.Y.), vol. 348, no. 6234, 2015, pp. 567-70.
Finnegan S, Anderson SC, Harnik PG, et al. Extinctions. Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans. Science. 2015;348(6234):567-70.
Finnegan, S., Anderson, S. C., Harnik, P. G., Simpson, C., Tittensor, D. P., Byrnes, J. E., Finkel, Z. V., Lindberg, D. R., Liow, L. H., Lockwood, R., Lotze, H. K., McClain, C. R., McGuire, J. L., O'Dea, A., & Pandolfi, J. M. (2015). Extinctions. Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans. Science (New York, N.Y.), 348(6234), 567-70. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa6635
Finnegan S, et al. Extinctions. Paleontological Baselines for Evaluating Extinction Risk in the Modern Oceans. Science. 2015 May 1;348(6234):567-70. PubMed PMID: 25931558.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Extinctions. Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans. AU - Finnegan,Seth, AU - Anderson,Sean C, AU - Harnik,Paul G, AU - Simpson,Carl, AU - Tittensor,Derek P, AU - Byrnes,Jarrett E, AU - Finkel,Zoe V, AU - Lindberg,David R, AU - Liow,Lee Hsiang, AU - Lockwood,Rowan, AU - Lotze,Heike K, AU - McClain,Craig R, AU - McGuire,Jenny L, AU - O'Dea,Aaron, AU - Pandolfi,John M, PY - 2015/5/2/entrez PY - 2015/5/2/pubmed PY - 2015/5/21/medline SP - 567 EP - 70 JF - Science (New York, N.Y.) JO - Science VL - 348 IS - 6234 N2 - Marine taxa are threatened by anthropogenic impacts, but knowledge of their extinction vulnerabilities is limited. The fossil record provides rich information on past extinctions that can help predict biotic responses. We show that over 23 million years, taxonomic membership and geographic range size consistently explain a large proportion of extinction risk variation in six major taxonomic groups. We assess intrinsic risk-extinction risk predicted by paleontologically calibrated models-for modern genera in these groups. Mapping the geographic distribution of these genera identifies coastal biogeographic provinces where fauna with high intrinsic risk are strongly affected by human activity or climate change. Such regions are disproportionately in the tropics, raising the possibility that these ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to future extinctions. Intrinsic risk provides a prehuman baseline for considering current threats to marine biodiversity. SN - 1095-9203 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/25931558/Extinctions__Paleontological_baselines_for_evaluating_extinction_risk_in_the_modern_oceans_ L2 - https://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/pmidlookup?view=long&pmid=25931558 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -