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Modeling the geographic spread of rabies in China.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2015 May; 9(5):e0003772.PN

Abstract

In order to investigate how the movement of dogs affects the geographically inter-provincial spread of rabies in Mainland China, we propose a multi-patch model to describe the transmission dynamics of rabies between dogs and humans, in which each province is regarded as a patch. In each patch the submodel consists of susceptible, exposed, infectious, and vaccinated subpopulations of both dogs and humans and describes the spread of rabies among dogs and from infectious dogs to humans. The existence of the disease-free equilibrium is discussed, the basic reproduction number is calculated, and the effect of moving rates of dogs between patches on the basic reproduction number is studied. To investigate the rabies virus clades lineages, the two-patch submodel is used to simulate the human rabies data from Guizhou and Guangxi, Hebei and Fujian, and Sichuan and Shaanxi, respectively. It is found that the basic reproduction number of the two-patch model could be larger than one even if the isolated basic reproduction number of each patch is less than one. This indicates that the immigration of dogs may make the disease endemic even if the disease dies out in each isolated patch when there is no immigration. In order to reduce and prevent geographical spread of rabies in China, our results suggest that the management of dog markets and trades needs to be regulated, and transportation of dogs has to be better monitored and under constant surveillance.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Mathematics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida, United States of America.Department of Mathematics, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, People's Republic of China.Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University Taiyuan, Shanxi, People's Republic of China.Department of Mathematics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida, United States of America.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

Language

eng

PubMed ID

26020234

Citation

Chen, Jing, et al. "Modeling the Geographic Spread of Rabies in China." PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, vol. 9, no. 5, 2015, pp. e0003772.
Chen J, Zou L, Jin Z, et al. Modeling the geographic spread of rabies in China. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2015;9(5):e0003772.
Chen, J., Zou, L., Jin, Z., & Ruan, S. (2015). Modeling the geographic spread of rabies in China. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 9(5), e0003772. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003772
Chen J, et al. Modeling the Geographic Spread of Rabies in China. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2015;9(5):e0003772. PubMed PMID: 26020234.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Modeling the geographic spread of rabies in China. AU - Chen,Jing, AU - Zou,Lan, AU - Jin,Zhen, AU - Ruan,Shigui, Y1 - 2015/05/28/ PY - 2014/10/22/received PY - 2015/04/20/accepted PY - 2015/5/29/entrez PY - 2015/5/29/pubmed PY - 2016/4/1/medline SP - e0003772 EP - e0003772 JF - PLoS neglected tropical diseases JO - PLoS Negl Trop Dis VL - 9 IS - 5 N2 - In order to investigate how the movement of dogs affects the geographically inter-provincial spread of rabies in Mainland China, we propose a multi-patch model to describe the transmission dynamics of rabies between dogs and humans, in which each province is regarded as a patch. In each patch the submodel consists of susceptible, exposed, infectious, and vaccinated subpopulations of both dogs and humans and describes the spread of rabies among dogs and from infectious dogs to humans. The existence of the disease-free equilibrium is discussed, the basic reproduction number is calculated, and the effect of moving rates of dogs between patches on the basic reproduction number is studied. To investigate the rabies virus clades lineages, the two-patch submodel is used to simulate the human rabies data from Guizhou and Guangxi, Hebei and Fujian, and Sichuan and Shaanxi, respectively. It is found that the basic reproduction number of the two-patch model could be larger than one even if the isolated basic reproduction number of each patch is less than one. This indicates that the immigration of dogs may make the disease endemic even if the disease dies out in each isolated patch when there is no immigration. In order to reduce and prevent geographical spread of rabies in China, our results suggest that the management of dog markets and trades needs to be regulated, and transportation of dogs has to be better monitored and under constant surveillance. SN - 1935-2735 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/26020234/Modeling_the_geographic_spread_of_rabies_in_China_ L2 - https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003772 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -