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Marine extinction risk shaped by trait-environment interactions over 500 million years.
Glob Chang Biol. 2015 Oct; 21(10):3595-607.GC

Abstract

Perhaps the most pressing issue in predicting biotic responses to present and future global change is understanding how environmental factors shape the relationship between ecological traits and extinction risk. The fossil record provides millions of years of insight into how extinction selectivity (i.e., differential extinction risk) is shaped by interactions between ecological traits and environmental conditions. Numerous paleontological studies have examined trait-based extinction selectivity; however, the extent to which these patterns are shaped by environmental conditions is poorly understood due to a lack of quantitative synthesis across studies. We conducted a meta-analysis of published studies on fossil marine bivalves and gastropods that span 458 million years to uncover how global environmental and geochemical changes covary with trait-based extinction selectivity. We focused on geographic range size and life habit (i.e., infaunal vs. epifaunal), two of the most important and commonly examined predictors of extinction selectivity. We used geochemical proxies related to global climate, as well as indicators of ocean acidification, to infer average global environmental conditions. Life-habit selectivity is weakly dependent on environmental conditions, with infaunal species relatively buffered from extinction during warmer climate states. In contrast, the odds of taxa with broad geographic ranges surviving an extinction (>2500 km for genera, >500 km for species) are on average three times greater than narrow-ranging taxa (estimate of odds ratio: 2.8, 95% confidence interval = 2.3-3.5), regardless of the prevailing global environmental conditions. The environmental independence of geographic range size extinction selectivity emphasizes the critical role of geographic range size in setting conservation priorities.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Integrative Biology and Museum of Paleontology, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA.Department of Geology, College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA, 23187, USA.Biology Department, University of Massachusetts Boston, 100 Morrissey Blvd, Boston, MA, 02125, USA.Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada.Department of Integrative Biology and Museum of Paleontology, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA.Environmental Science Program, Mount Allison University, Sackville, NB, E4L 1A5, Canada.Department of Earth and Environment, Franklin and Marshall College, Lancaster, PA, 17604, USA.Department of Integrative Biology and Museum of Paleontology, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA.Center for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Blindern, N-0316, Oslo, Norway.Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, P.O. Box 15000, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada.National Evolutionary Synthesis Center, Durham, NC, 27705, USA.School of Biology, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30332, USA.Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, 0843-03092, Balboa, Republic of PanamáAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Qld, 4072, Australia.Department of Paleobiology, Smithsonian Institution, P.O. Box 37012 MRC-121, Washington, DC, 20013-7012, USA.Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, P.O. Box 15000, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada. United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, UK.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Meta-Analysis
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

Language

eng

PubMed ID

26190141

Citation

Orzechowski, Emily A., et al. "Marine Extinction Risk Shaped By Trait-environment Interactions Over 500 Million Years." Global Change Biology, vol. 21, no. 10, 2015, pp. 3595-607.
Orzechowski EA, Lockwood R, Byrnes JE, et al. Marine extinction risk shaped by trait-environment interactions over 500 million years. Glob Chang Biol. 2015;21(10):3595-607.
Orzechowski, E. A., Lockwood, R., Byrnes, J. E., Anderson, S. C., Finnegan, S., Finkel, Z. V., Harnik, P. G., Lindberg, D. R., Liow, L. H., Lotze, H. K., McClain, C. R., McGuire, J. L., O'Dea, A., Pandolfi, J. M., Simpson, C., & Tittensor, D. P. (2015). Marine extinction risk shaped by trait-environment interactions over 500 million years. Global Change Biology, 21(10), 3595-607. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12963
Orzechowski EA, et al. Marine Extinction Risk Shaped By Trait-environment Interactions Over 500 Million Years. Glob Chang Biol. 2015;21(10):3595-607. PubMed PMID: 26190141.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Marine extinction risk shaped by trait-environment interactions over 500 million years. AU - Orzechowski,Emily A, AU - Lockwood,Rowan, AU - Byrnes,Jarrett E K, AU - Anderson,Sean C, AU - Finnegan,Seth, AU - Finkel,Zoe V, AU - Harnik,Paul G, AU - Lindberg,David R, AU - Liow,Lee Hsiang, AU - Lotze,Heike K, AU - McClain,Craig R, AU - McGuire,Jenny L, AU - O'Dea,Aaron, AU - Pandolfi,John M, AU - Simpson,Carl, AU - Tittensor,Derek P, Y1 - 2015/07/18/ PY - 2015/01/16/received PY - 2015/04/08/revised PY - 2015/04/10/accepted PY - 2015/7/21/entrez PY - 2015/7/21/pubmed PY - 2016/6/17/medline KW - differential extinction risk KW - extinction selectivity KW - geographic range KW - life habit KW - mass extinction KW - mollusk KW - survivorship SP - 3595 EP - 607 JF - Global change biology JO - Glob Chang Biol VL - 21 IS - 10 N2 - Perhaps the most pressing issue in predicting biotic responses to present and future global change is understanding how environmental factors shape the relationship between ecological traits and extinction risk. The fossil record provides millions of years of insight into how extinction selectivity (i.e., differential extinction risk) is shaped by interactions between ecological traits and environmental conditions. Numerous paleontological studies have examined trait-based extinction selectivity; however, the extent to which these patterns are shaped by environmental conditions is poorly understood due to a lack of quantitative synthesis across studies. We conducted a meta-analysis of published studies on fossil marine bivalves and gastropods that span 458 million years to uncover how global environmental and geochemical changes covary with trait-based extinction selectivity. We focused on geographic range size and life habit (i.e., infaunal vs. epifaunal), two of the most important and commonly examined predictors of extinction selectivity. We used geochemical proxies related to global climate, as well as indicators of ocean acidification, to infer average global environmental conditions. Life-habit selectivity is weakly dependent on environmental conditions, with infaunal species relatively buffered from extinction during warmer climate states. In contrast, the odds of taxa with broad geographic ranges surviving an extinction (>2500 km for genera, >500 km for species) are on average three times greater than narrow-ranging taxa (estimate of odds ratio: 2.8, 95% confidence interval = 2.3-3.5), regardless of the prevailing global environmental conditions. The environmental independence of geographic range size extinction selectivity emphasizes the critical role of geographic range size in setting conservation priorities. SN - 1365-2486 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/26190141/Marine_extinction_risk_shaped_by_trait_environment_interactions_over_500_million_years_ L2 - https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12963 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -