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Effects of Green Tea Gargling on the Prevention of Influenza Infection: An Analysis Using Bayesian Approaches.
J Altern Complement Med. 2017 Feb; 23(2):116-120.JA

Abstract

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study is to analyze the data obtained from a randomized trial on the prevention of influenza by gargling with green tea, which gave nonsignificant results based on frequentist approaches, by using Bayesian approaches.

METHODS

The posterior proportion, with 95% credible interval (CrI), of influenza in each group was calculated. The Bayesian index θ is the probability that a hypothesis is true. In this case, θ is the probability that the hypothesis that green tea gargling reduced influenza compared with water gargling is true. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were also performed by using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method.

RESULTS

The full analysis set included 747 participants. During the study period, influenza occurred in 44 participants (5.9%). The difference between the two independent binominal proportions was -0.019 (95% CrI, -0.054 to 0.015; θ = 0.87). The partial regression coefficients in the univariate analysis were -0.35 (95% CrI, -1.00 to 0.24) with use of a uniform prior and -0.34 (95% CrI, -0.96 to 0.27) with use of a Jeffreys prior. In the multivariate analysis, the values were -0.37 (95% CrI, -0.96 to 0.30) and -0.36 (95% CrI, -1.03 to 0.21), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The difference between the two independent binominal proportions was less than 0, and θ was greater than 0.85. Therefore, green tea gargling may slightly reduce influenza compared with water gargling. This analysis suggests that green tea gargling can be an additional preventive measure for use with other pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical measures and indicates the need for additional studies to confirm the effect of green tea gargling.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Drug Evaluation & Informatics, Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Shizuoka , Shizuoka, Japan .Department of Drug Evaluation & Informatics, Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Shizuoka , Shizuoka, Japan .Department of Drug Evaluation & Informatics, Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Shizuoka , Shizuoka, Japan .Department of Drug Evaluation & Informatics, Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Shizuoka , Shizuoka, Japan .

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Randomized Controlled Trial

Language

eng

PubMed ID

27627647

Citation

Ide, Kazuki, et al. "Effects of Green Tea Gargling On the Prevention of Influenza Infection: an Analysis Using Bayesian Approaches." Journal of Alternative and Complementary Medicine (New York, N.Y.), vol. 23, no. 2, 2017, pp. 116-120.
Ide K, Kawasaki Y, Akutagawa M, et al. Effects of Green Tea Gargling on the Prevention of Influenza Infection: An Analysis Using Bayesian Approaches. J Altern Complement Med. 2017;23(2):116-120.
Ide, K., Kawasaki, Y., Akutagawa, M., & Yamada, H. (2017). Effects of Green Tea Gargling on the Prevention of Influenza Infection: An Analysis Using Bayesian Approaches. Journal of Alternative and Complementary Medicine (New York, N.Y.), 23(2), 116-120. https://doi.org/10.1089/acm.2016.0094
Ide K, et al. Effects of Green Tea Gargling On the Prevention of Influenza Infection: an Analysis Using Bayesian Approaches. J Altern Complement Med. 2017;23(2):116-120. PubMed PMID: 27627647.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Effects of Green Tea Gargling on the Prevention of Influenza Infection: An Analysis Using Bayesian Approaches. AU - Ide,Kazuki, AU - Kawasaki,Yohei, AU - Akutagawa,Maiko, AU - Yamada,Hiroshi, Y1 - 2016/09/14/ PY - 2016/9/15/pubmed PY - 2017/6/27/medline PY - 2016/9/15/entrez KW - Bayesian approaches KW - Monte Carlo method KW - gargling KW - green tea KW - influenza KW - prevention KW - probabilities SP - 116 EP - 120 JF - Journal of alternative and complementary medicine (New York, N.Y.) JO - J Altern Complement Med VL - 23 IS - 2 N2 - OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study is to analyze the data obtained from a randomized trial on the prevention of influenza by gargling with green tea, which gave nonsignificant results based on frequentist approaches, by using Bayesian approaches. METHODS: The posterior proportion, with 95% credible interval (CrI), of influenza in each group was calculated. The Bayesian index θ is the probability that a hypothesis is true. In this case, θ is the probability that the hypothesis that green tea gargling reduced influenza compared with water gargling is true. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were also performed by using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. RESULTS: The full analysis set included 747 participants. During the study period, influenza occurred in 44 participants (5.9%). The difference between the two independent binominal proportions was -0.019 (95% CrI, -0.054 to 0.015; θ = 0.87). The partial regression coefficients in the univariate analysis were -0.35 (95% CrI, -1.00 to 0.24) with use of a uniform prior and -0.34 (95% CrI, -0.96 to 0.27) with use of a Jeffreys prior. In the multivariate analysis, the values were -0.37 (95% CrI, -0.96 to 0.30) and -0.36 (95% CrI, -1.03 to 0.21), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The difference between the two independent binominal proportions was less than 0, and θ was greater than 0.85. Therefore, green tea gargling may slightly reduce influenza compared with water gargling. This analysis suggests that green tea gargling can be an additional preventive measure for use with other pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical measures and indicates the need for additional studies to confirm the effect of green tea gargling. SN - 1557-7708 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/27627647/Effects_of_Green_Tea_Gargling_on_the_Prevention_of_Influenza_Infection:_An_Analysis_Using_Bayesian_Approaches_ L2 - https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/acm.2016.0094?url_ver=Z39.88-2003&rfr_id=ori:rid:crossref.org&rfr_dat=cr_pub=pubmed DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -