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Potential for Zika Virus to Establish a Sylvatic Transmission Cycle in the Americas.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2016 12; 10(12):e0005055.PN

Abstract

Zika virus (ZIKV) originated and continues to circulate in a sylvatic transmission cycle between non-human primate hosts and arboreal mosquitoes in tropical Africa. Recently ZIKV invaded the Americas, where it poses a threat to human health, especially to pregnant women and their infants. Here we examine the risk that ZIKV will establish a sylvatic cycle in the Americas, focusing on Brazil. We review the natural history of sylvatic ZIKV and present a mathematical dynamic transmission model to assess the probability of establishment of a sylvatic ZIKV transmission cycle in non-human primates and/or other mammals and arboreal mosquito vectors in Brazil. Brazil is home to multiple species of primates and mosquitoes potentially capable of ZIKV transmission, though direct assessment of host competence (ability to mount viremia sufficient to infect a feeding mosquito) and vector competence (ability to become infected with ZIKV and disseminate and transmit upon subsequent feedings) of New World species is lacking. Modeling reveals a high probability of establishment of sylvatic ZIKV across a large range of biologically plausible parameters. Probability of establishment is dependent on host and vector population sizes, host birthrates, and ZIKV force of infection. Research on the host competence of New World monkeys or other small mammals to ZIKV, on vector competence of New World Aedes, Sabethes, and Haemagogus mosquitoes for ZIKV, and on the geographic range of potential New World hosts and vectors is urgently needed. A sylvatic cycle of ZIKV would make future elimination efforts in the Americas practically impossible, and paints a dire picture for the epidemiology of ZIKV and our ability to end the ongoing outbreak of congenital Zika syndrome.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Institute for Disease Modeling, Bellevue, WA, USA. Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, USA. Information School, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM, USA.Department of Pathology and Center for Biodefense and Emerging Infectious Diseases, Center for Tropical Diseases and Institute for Human Infections and Immunity, The University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston TX, USA.Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal.Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal.Institute for Human Infections and Immunity and Departments of Pathology, Microbiology & Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA.Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM, USA.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Review
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural

Language

eng

PubMed ID

27977671

Citation

Althouse, Benjamin M., et al. "Potential for Zika Virus to Establish a Sylvatic Transmission Cycle in the Americas." PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, vol. 10, no. 12, 2016, pp. e0005055.
Althouse BM, Vasilakis N, Sall AA, et al. Potential for Zika Virus to Establish a Sylvatic Transmission Cycle in the Americas. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2016;10(12):e0005055.
Althouse, B. M., Vasilakis, N., Sall, A. A., Diallo, M., Weaver, S. C., & Hanley, K. A. (2016). Potential for Zika Virus to Establish a Sylvatic Transmission Cycle in the Americas. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 10(12), e0005055. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005055
Althouse BM, et al. Potential for Zika Virus to Establish a Sylvatic Transmission Cycle in the Americas. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2016;10(12):e0005055. PubMed PMID: 27977671.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Potential for Zika Virus to Establish a Sylvatic Transmission Cycle in the Americas. AU - Althouse,Benjamin M, AU - Vasilakis,Nikos, AU - Sall,Amadou A, AU - Diallo,Mawlouth, AU - Weaver,Scott C, AU - Hanley,Kathryn A, Y1 - 2016/12/15/ PY - 2016/12/16/entrez PY - 2016/12/16/pubmed PY - 2017/6/14/medline SP - e0005055 EP - e0005055 JF - PLoS neglected tropical diseases JO - PLoS Negl Trop Dis VL - 10 IS - 12 N2 - Zika virus (ZIKV) originated and continues to circulate in a sylvatic transmission cycle between non-human primate hosts and arboreal mosquitoes in tropical Africa. Recently ZIKV invaded the Americas, where it poses a threat to human health, especially to pregnant women and their infants. Here we examine the risk that ZIKV will establish a sylvatic cycle in the Americas, focusing on Brazil. We review the natural history of sylvatic ZIKV and present a mathematical dynamic transmission model to assess the probability of establishment of a sylvatic ZIKV transmission cycle in non-human primates and/or other mammals and arboreal mosquito vectors in Brazil. Brazil is home to multiple species of primates and mosquitoes potentially capable of ZIKV transmission, though direct assessment of host competence (ability to mount viremia sufficient to infect a feeding mosquito) and vector competence (ability to become infected with ZIKV and disseminate and transmit upon subsequent feedings) of New World species is lacking. Modeling reveals a high probability of establishment of sylvatic ZIKV across a large range of biologically plausible parameters. Probability of establishment is dependent on host and vector population sizes, host birthrates, and ZIKV force of infection. Research on the host competence of New World monkeys or other small mammals to ZIKV, on vector competence of New World Aedes, Sabethes, and Haemagogus mosquitoes for ZIKV, and on the geographic range of potential New World hosts and vectors is urgently needed. A sylvatic cycle of ZIKV would make future elimination efforts in the Americas practically impossible, and paints a dire picture for the epidemiology of ZIKV and our ability to end the ongoing outbreak of congenital Zika syndrome. SN - 1935-2735 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/27977671/Potential_for_Zika_Virus_to_Establish_a_Sylvatic_Transmission_Cycle_in_the_Americas_ L2 - http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005055 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -