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A two-phase model for chronic disease processes under intermittent inspection.
Stat Med 2017; 36(13):2016-2031SM

Abstract

A model is developed for chronic diseases with an indolent phase that is followed by a phase with more active disease resulting in progression and damage. The time scales for the intensity functions for the active phase are more naturally based on the time since the start of the active phase, corresponding to a semi-Markov formulation. This two-phase model enables one to fit a separate regression model for the duration of the indolent phase and intensity-based models for the more active second phase. In cohort studies for which the disease status is only known at a series of clinical assessment times, transition times are interval-censored, which means the time origin for phase II is interval-censored. Weakly parametric models with piecewise constant baseline hazard and rate functions are specified, and an expectation-maximization algorithm is described for model fitting. Simulation studies examining the performance of the proposed model show good performance under maximum likelihood and two-stage estimation. An application to data from the motivating study of disease progression in psoriatic arthritis illustrates the procedure and identifies new human leukocyte antigens associated with the duration of the indolent phase. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Institute of Statistics, Nankai University, 94 Weijin Road, Tianjin, 300071, China.Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, N2L 3G1, ON, Canada.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

28238209

Citation

Wu, Ying, and Richard J. Cook. "A Two-phase Model for Chronic Disease Processes Under Intermittent Inspection." Statistics in Medicine, vol. 36, no. 13, 2017, pp. 2016-2031.
Wu Y, Cook RJ. A two-phase model for chronic disease processes under intermittent inspection. Stat Med. 2017;36(13):2016-2031.
Wu, Y., & Cook, R. J. (2017). A two-phase model for chronic disease processes under intermittent inspection. Statistics in Medicine, 36(13), pp. 2016-2031. doi:10.1002/sim.7269.
Wu Y, Cook RJ. A Two-phase Model for Chronic Disease Processes Under Intermittent Inspection. Stat Med. 2017 06 15;36(13):2016-2031. PubMed PMID: 28238209.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - A two-phase model for chronic disease processes under intermittent inspection. AU - Wu,Ying, AU - Cook,Richard J, Y1 - 2017/02/26/ PY - 2016/06/27/received PY - 2017/01/31/revised PY - 2017/02/03/accepted PY - 2017/2/27/pubmed PY - 2018/3/9/medline PY - 2017/2/27/entrez KW - expectation-maximization algorithm KW - interval-censoring KW - recurrent events KW - two-phase process KW - two-stage estimation SP - 2016 EP - 2031 JF - Statistics in medicine JO - Stat Med VL - 36 IS - 13 N2 - A model is developed for chronic diseases with an indolent phase that is followed by a phase with more active disease resulting in progression and damage. The time scales for the intensity functions for the active phase are more naturally based on the time since the start of the active phase, corresponding to a semi-Markov formulation. This two-phase model enables one to fit a separate regression model for the duration of the indolent phase and intensity-based models for the more active second phase. In cohort studies for which the disease status is only known at a series of clinical assessment times, transition times are interval-censored, which means the time origin for phase II is interval-censored. Weakly parametric models with piecewise constant baseline hazard and rate functions are specified, and an expectation-maximization algorithm is described for model fitting. Simulation studies examining the performance of the proposed model show good performance under maximum likelihood and two-stage estimation. An application to data from the motivating study of disease progression in psoriatic arthritis illustrates the procedure and identifies new human leukocyte antigens associated with the duration of the indolent phase. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. SN - 1097-0258 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/28238209/A_two_phase_model_for_chronic_disease_processes_under_intermittent_inspection_ L2 - https://medlineplus.gov/copingwithchronicillness.html DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -