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Effects of climatic and social factors on dengue incidence in Mexican municipalities in the state of Veracruz.

Abstract

Objective:

To assess links between the social variables and longer-term El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related weather conditions as they relate to the week-to-week changes in dengue incidence at a regional level.

Materials and methods:

We collected data from 10 municipalities of the Olmeca region in México, over a 10 year period (January 1995 to December 2005). Negative binomial models with distributed lags were adjusted to look for associations between changes in the weekly incidence rate of dengue fever and climate variability.

Results:

Our results show that it takes approximately six weeks for sea surface temperatures (SST -34) to affect dengue incidence adjusted by weather and social variables.

Conclusion:

Such models could be used as early as two months in advance to provide information to decision makers about potential epidemics. Elucidating the effect of climatic variability and social variables, could assist in the development of accurate early warning systems for epidemics like dengue, Chikungunya and Zika.

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  • Authors+Show Affiliations

    ,

    Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública. Cuernavaca, México.

    ,

    Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública. Cuernavaca, México.

    ,

    Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública. Cuernavaca, México.

    ,

    Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública. Tapachula, México.

    Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública. Cuernavaca, México.

    Source

    Pub Type(s)

    Journal Article

    Language

    eng

    PubMed ID

    28423109