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Violent crime redistribution in a city following a substantial increase in the number of off-sale alcohol outlets: A Bayesian analysis.
Drug Alcohol Rev. 2018 03; 37(3):348-355.DA

Abstract

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS

This study examined whether the introduction of a large number of off-premise alcohol outlets into a city over a brief period of time could affect rates of violent crime.

DESIGN AND METHODS

The study analysed annual counts of violent crime across 172 US Census block groups in Lubbock, Texas from 2006 through 2011. Spatial Poisson models related annual violent crime counts within each block group to off-premise and on-premise alcohol outlets active during this time period as well as neighbourhood socio-demographic characteristics. The effects of alcohol outlets were assessed both within block groups and across adjacent block groups.

RESULTS

On-premise outlets had a small, significant positive association with violence within a given block group. A similar well-supported local effect for off-premise outlets was not found. However, the spatially lagged effect for off-sale premises was well-supported, indicating that greater densities of these outlets were related to greater rates of violent crime in adjacent areas.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

While these analyses confirmed a previous time-series analysis in finding no city-wide effect of the increase in off-premise outlets, they do suggest that such outlets in a local area may be related to violence in nearby geographic areas. They indicate the importance of examining neighbourhood-specific effects of alcohol outlets on violence in addition to the city-wide effects. They also present further evidence supporting the need to examine the differential effects of on-sale and off-sale premises.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Texas A&M University, College Station, USA.Prevention Research Center, Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Oakland, USA.Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Texas A&M University, College Station, USA.Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Texas A&M University, College Station, USA.Prevention Research Center, Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Oakland, USA.Prevention Research Center, Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Oakland, USA.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural

Language

eng

PubMed ID

29168249

Citation

Gorman, Dennis M., et al. "Violent Crime Redistribution in a City Following a Substantial Increase in the Number of Off-sale Alcohol Outlets: a Bayesian Analysis." Drug and Alcohol Review, vol. 37, no. 3, 2018, pp. 348-355.
Gorman DM, Ponicki WR, Zheng Q, et al. Violent crime redistribution in a city following a substantial increase in the number of off-sale alcohol outlets: A Bayesian analysis. Drug Alcohol Rev. 2018;37(3):348-355.
Gorman, D. M., Ponicki, W. R., Zheng, Q., Han, D., Gruenewald, P. J., & Gaidus, A. J. (2018). Violent crime redistribution in a city following a substantial increase in the number of off-sale alcohol outlets: A Bayesian analysis. Drug and Alcohol Review, 37(3), 348-355. https://doi.org/10.1111/dar.12636
Gorman DM, et al. Violent Crime Redistribution in a City Following a Substantial Increase in the Number of Off-sale Alcohol Outlets: a Bayesian Analysis. Drug Alcohol Rev. 2018;37(3):348-355. PubMed PMID: 29168249.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Violent crime redistribution in a city following a substantial increase in the number of off-sale alcohol outlets: A Bayesian analysis. AU - Gorman,Dennis M, AU - Ponicki,William R, AU - Zheng,Qi, AU - Han,Daikwon, AU - Gruenewald,Paul J, AU - Gaidus,Andrew J, Y1 - 2017/11/22/ PY - 2017/03/28/received PY - 2017/10/20/revised PY - 2017/10/23/accepted PY - 2017/11/24/pubmed PY - 2018/11/6/medline PY - 2017/11/24/entrez KW - Bayesian analysis KW - alcohol outlets KW - off-sale premises KW - violent crime SP - 348 EP - 355 JF - Drug and alcohol review JO - Drug Alcohol Rev VL - 37 IS - 3 N2 - INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: This study examined whether the introduction of a large number of off-premise alcohol outlets into a city over a brief period of time could affect rates of violent crime. DESIGN AND METHODS: The study analysed annual counts of violent crime across 172 US Census block groups in Lubbock, Texas from 2006 through 2011. Spatial Poisson models related annual violent crime counts within each block group to off-premise and on-premise alcohol outlets active during this time period as well as neighbourhood socio-demographic characteristics. The effects of alcohol outlets were assessed both within block groups and across adjacent block groups. RESULTS: On-premise outlets had a small, significant positive association with violence within a given block group. A similar well-supported local effect for off-premise outlets was not found. However, the spatially lagged effect for off-sale premises was well-supported, indicating that greater densities of these outlets were related to greater rates of violent crime in adjacent areas. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: While these analyses confirmed a previous time-series analysis in finding no city-wide effect of the increase in off-premise outlets, they do suggest that such outlets in a local area may be related to violence in nearby geographic areas. They indicate the importance of examining neighbourhood-specific effects of alcohol outlets on violence in addition to the city-wide effects. They also present further evidence supporting the need to examine the differential effects of on-sale and off-sale premises. SN - 1465-3362 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/29168249/Violent_crime_redistribution_in_a_city_following_a_substantial_increase_in_the_number_of_off_sale_alcohol_outlets:_A_Bayesian_analysis_ L2 - https://doi.org/10.1111/dar.12636 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -