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Analysing increasing trends of Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) and dengue cases in Hong Kong using meteorological data.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) is a severe paralytic neuropathy associated with virus infections such as Zika virus and Chikungunya virus. There were also case reports of dengue fever preceding GBS. With the aim to understand the mechanisms of GBS and dengue outbreaks, this ecological study investigates the relationships between GBS, dengue, meteorological factors in Hong Kong and global climatic factors from January 2000 to June 2016.

METHODS

The correlations between GBS, dengue, Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (MEI) and local meteorological data were explored by Spearman's Rank correlations and cross-correlations. Three Poisson regression models were fitted to identify non-linear associations among GBS, dengue and MEI. Cross wavelet analyses were applied to infer potential non-stationary oscillating associations among GBS, dengue and MEI.

FINDINGS AND CONCLUSION

We report a substantial increasing of local GBS and dengue cases (mainly imported) in recent year in Hong Kong. The seasonalities of GBS and dengue are different, in particular, GBS is low while dengue is high in the summer. We found weak but significant correlations between GBS and local meteorological factors. MEI could explain over 17% of dengue's variations based on Poisson regression analyses. We report a possible non-stationary oscillating association between dengue fever and GBS cases in Hong Kong. This study has led to an improved understanding about the timing and ecological relationships between MEI, GBS and dengue.

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  • Authors+Show Affiliations

    ,

    Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, China.

    ,

    Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China.

    ,

    Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China.

    ,

    Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, China.

    ,

    School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China.

    Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China.

    Source

    PloS one 12:12 2017 pg e0187830

    MeSH

    Chikungunya virus
    Cold Temperature
    Dengue
    Dengue Virus
    Disease Outbreaks
    El Nino-Southern Oscillation
    Guillain-Barre Syndrome
    Hong Kong
    Humans
    Seasons
    Sunlight
    Zika Virus
    Zika Virus Infection

    Pub Type(s)

    Journal Article

    Language

    eng

    PubMed ID

    29200423