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Association of Prognostic Estimates With Burdensome Interventions in Nursing Home Residents With Advanced Dementia.
JAMA Intern Med. 2018 07 01; 178(7):922-929.JIM

Abstract

Importance

Prognostication in advanced dementia is challenging but may influence care.

Objectives

To determine the accuracy of proxies' prognostic estimates for nursing home residents with advanced dementia, identify factors associated with those estimates, and examine the association between their estimates and use of burdensome interventions.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Data were combined from 2 studies that prospectively followed 764 residents with advanced dementia and their proxies in Boston-area nursing homes for 12 months: (1) the Study of Pathogen Resistance and Exposure to Antimicrobials in Dementia, conducted from September 2009 to November 2012 (362 resident/proxy dyads; 35 facilities); and (2) the Educational Video to Improve nursing home Care in End-Stage Dementia, conducted from March 2013 to July 2017 (402 resident/proxy dyads; 62 facilities). Proxies were the residents' formally or informally designated medical decision makers.

Main Outcomes and Measures

During quarterly telephone interviews, proxies stated whether they believed the resident would live less than 1 month, 1 to 6 months, 7 to 12 months, or more than 12 months. Prognostic estimates were compared with resident survival. Resident and proxy characteristics associated with proxy prognostic estimates were determined. The association between prognostic estimates and whether residents experienced any of the following was determined: hospital transfers, parenteral therapy, tube feeding, venipunctures, and bladder catheterizations.

Results

The residents' mean (SD) age was 86.6 (7.3) years; 631 (82.6%) were women and 133 (17.4%) were men. Of the 764 residents, 310 (40.6%) died later than 12 months. Proxies estimated survival with moderate accuracy (C statistic, 0.67). When proxies perceived the resident would die within 6 months, they were more likely to report being asked (183 [7.2%] of 2526) vs not being asked (126 [5.0%] of 2526) about goals of care by nursing home clinicians (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.94; 95% CI, 1.50-2.52). Residents were less likely to experience burdensome interventions when the proxy prognostic estimate was less than 6 months (89 [4.4%] of 2031) vs greater than 6 months (1008 [49.6%] of 2031) (AOR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.34-0.62).

Conclusions and Relevance

Proxies estimated the prognosis of nursing home residents with advanced dementia with moderate accuracy. Having been asked about their opinion about the goal of care was associated with the proxies' perception that the resident had less than 6 months to live and that perception was associated with a lower likelihood the resident experienced burdensome interventions.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Hebrew SeniorLife Institute for Aging Research, Boston, Massachusetts. University Research Priority Program, Dynamics of Healthy Aging, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle.Hebrew SeniorLife Institute for Aging Research, Boston, Massachusetts.Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research and School of Medicine, Division of Geriatric Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill.Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston.Hebrew SeniorLife Institute for Aging Research, Boston, Massachusetts. Department of Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, Massachusetts.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Randomized Controlled Trial
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

29813159

Citation

Loizeau, Andrea J., et al. "Association of Prognostic Estimates With Burdensome Interventions in Nursing Home Residents With Advanced Dementia." JAMA Internal Medicine, vol. 178, no. 7, 2018, pp. 922-929.
Loizeau AJ, Shaffer ML, Habtemariam DA, et al. Association of Prognostic Estimates With Burdensome Interventions in Nursing Home Residents With Advanced Dementia. JAMA Intern Med. 2018;178(7):922-929.
Loizeau, A. J., Shaffer, M. L., Habtemariam, D. A., Hanson, L. C., Volandes, A. E., & Mitchell, S. L. (2018). Association of Prognostic Estimates With Burdensome Interventions in Nursing Home Residents With Advanced Dementia. JAMA Internal Medicine, 178(7), 922-929. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2018.1413
Loizeau AJ, et al. Association of Prognostic Estimates With Burdensome Interventions in Nursing Home Residents With Advanced Dementia. JAMA Intern Med. 2018 07 1;178(7):922-929. PubMed PMID: 29813159.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Association of Prognostic Estimates With Burdensome Interventions in Nursing Home Residents With Advanced Dementia. AU - Loizeau,Andrea J, AU - Shaffer,Michele L, AU - Habtemariam,Daniel A, AU - Hanson,Laura C, AU - Volandes,Angelo E, AU - Mitchell,Susan L, PY - 2018/5/31/pubmed PY - 2019/5/1/medline PY - 2018/5/30/entrez SP - 922 EP - 929 JF - JAMA internal medicine JO - JAMA Intern Med VL - 178 IS - 7 N2 - Importance: Prognostication in advanced dementia is challenging but may influence care. Objectives: To determine the accuracy of proxies' prognostic estimates for nursing home residents with advanced dementia, identify factors associated with those estimates, and examine the association between their estimates and use of burdensome interventions. Design, Setting, and Participants: Data were combined from 2 studies that prospectively followed 764 residents with advanced dementia and their proxies in Boston-area nursing homes for 12 months: (1) the Study of Pathogen Resistance and Exposure to Antimicrobials in Dementia, conducted from September 2009 to November 2012 (362 resident/proxy dyads; 35 facilities); and (2) the Educational Video to Improve nursing home Care in End-Stage Dementia, conducted from March 2013 to July 2017 (402 resident/proxy dyads; 62 facilities). Proxies were the residents' formally or informally designated medical decision makers. Main Outcomes and Measures: During quarterly telephone interviews, proxies stated whether they believed the resident would live less than 1 month, 1 to 6 months, 7 to 12 months, or more than 12 months. Prognostic estimates were compared with resident survival. Resident and proxy characteristics associated with proxy prognostic estimates were determined. The association between prognostic estimates and whether residents experienced any of the following was determined: hospital transfers, parenteral therapy, tube feeding, venipunctures, and bladder catheterizations. Results: The residents' mean (SD) age was 86.6 (7.3) years; 631 (82.6%) were women and 133 (17.4%) were men. Of the 764 residents, 310 (40.6%) died later than 12 months. Proxies estimated survival with moderate accuracy (C statistic, 0.67). When proxies perceived the resident would die within 6 months, they were more likely to report being asked (183 [7.2%] of 2526) vs not being asked (126 [5.0%] of 2526) about goals of care by nursing home clinicians (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.94; 95% CI, 1.50-2.52). Residents were less likely to experience burdensome interventions when the proxy prognostic estimate was less than 6 months (89 [4.4%] of 2031) vs greater than 6 months (1008 [49.6%] of 2031) (AOR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.34-0.62). Conclusions and Relevance: Proxies estimated the prognosis of nursing home residents with advanced dementia with moderate accuracy. Having been asked about their opinion about the goal of care was associated with the proxies' perception that the resident had less than 6 months to live and that perception was associated with a lower likelihood the resident experienced burdensome interventions. SN - 2168-6114 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/29813159/Association_of_Prognostic_Estimates_With_Burdensome_Interventions_in_Nursing_Home_Residents_With_Advanced_Dementia_ L2 - https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/10.1001/jamainternmed.2018.1413 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -