Tags

Type your tag names separated by a space and hit enter

The risk of urban yellow fever resurgence in Aedes-infested American cities.
Epidemiol Infect. 2018 07; 146(10):1219-1225.EI

Abstract

Aedes aegypti, historically known as yellow fever (YF) mosquito, transmits a great number of other viruses such as Dengue, West Nile, Chikungunya, Zika, Mayaro and perhaps Oropouche, among others. Well established in Africa and Asia, Aedes mosquitoes are now increasingly invading large parts of the American continent, and hence the risk of urban YF resurgence in the American cities should because of great concern to public health authorities. Although no new urban cycle of YF was reported in the Americas since the end of an Aedes eradication programme in the late 1950s, the high number of non-vaccinated individuals that visit endemic areas, that is, South American jungles where the sylvatic cycle of YF is transmitted by canopy mosquitoes, and return to Aedes-infested urban areas, increases the risk of resurgence of the urban cycle of YF. We present a method to estimate the risk of urban YF resurgence in dengue-endemic cities. This method consists in (1) to estimate the number of Aedes mosquitoes that explains a given dengue outbreak in a given region; (2) calculate the force of infection caused by the introduction of one infective individual per unit area in the endemic area under study; (3) using the above estimates, calculate the probability of at least one autochthonous YF case per unit area produced by one single viraemic traveller per unit area arriving from a YF endemic or epidemic sylvatic region at the city studied. We demonstrate that, provided the relative vector competence, here defined as the capacity to being infected and disseminate the virus, of Ae. aegypti is greater than 0.7 (with respect to dengue), one infected traveller can introduce urban YF in a dengue endemic area.

Authors+Show Affiliations

School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo,Sao Paulo,Brazil.School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo,Sao Paulo,Brazil.School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo,Sao Paulo,Brazil.School of Applied Mathematics, Fundacao Getulio Vargas,Rio de Janeiro,Brazil.School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo,Sao Paulo,Brazil.Neglected, Tropical and Vector-borne Diseases Program, CHA/VT. PAHO/WHO,Washington DC,USA.London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine,London,UK.School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo,Sao Paulo,Brazil.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

29843824

Citation

Massad, Eduardo, et al. "The Risk of Urban Yellow Fever Resurgence in Aedes-infested American Cities." Epidemiology and Infection, vol. 146, no. 10, 2018, pp. 1219-1225.
Massad E, Amaku M, Coutinho FAB, et al. The risk of urban yellow fever resurgence in Aedes-infested American cities. Epidemiol Infect. 2018;146(10):1219-1225.
Massad, E., Amaku, M., Coutinho, F. A. B., Struchiner, C. J., Lopez, L. F., Coelho, G., Wilder-Smith, A., & Burattini, M. N. (2018). The risk of urban yellow fever resurgence in Aedes-infested American cities. Epidemiology and Infection, 146(10), 1219-1225. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268818001334
Massad E, et al. The Risk of Urban Yellow Fever Resurgence in Aedes-infested American Cities. Epidemiol Infect. 2018;146(10):1219-1225. PubMed PMID: 29843824.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - The risk of urban yellow fever resurgence in Aedes-infested American cities. AU - Massad,Eduardo, AU - Amaku,Marcos, AU - Coutinho,Francisco Antonio Bezerra, AU - Struchiner,Claudio José, AU - Lopez,Luis Fernandez, AU - Coelho,Giovanini, AU - Wilder-Smith,Annelies, AU - Burattini,Marcelo Nascimento, Y1 - 2018/05/30/ PY - 2018/5/31/pubmed PY - 2019/2/12/medline PY - 2018/5/31/entrez KW - Aedes aegypti KW - dengue KW - mathematical models KW - risk KW - yellow fever SP - 1219 EP - 1225 JF - Epidemiology and infection JO - Epidemiol Infect VL - 146 IS - 10 N2 - Aedes aegypti, historically known as yellow fever (YF) mosquito, transmits a great number of other viruses such as Dengue, West Nile, Chikungunya, Zika, Mayaro and perhaps Oropouche, among others. Well established in Africa and Asia, Aedes mosquitoes are now increasingly invading large parts of the American continent, and hence the risk of urban YF resurgence in the American cities should because of great concern to public health authorities. Although no new urban cycle of YF was reported in the Americas since the end of an Aedes eradication programme in the late 1950s, the high number of non-vaccinated individuals that visit endemic areas, that is, South American jungles where the sylvatic cycle of YF is transmitted by canopy mosquitoes, and return to Aedes-infested urban areas, increases the risk of resurgence of the urban cycle of YF. We present a method to estimate the risk of urban YF resurgence in dengue-endemic cities. This method consists in (1) to estimate the number of Aedes mosquitoes that explains a given dengue outbreak in a given region; (2) calculate the force of infection caused by the introduction of one infective individual per unit area in the endemic area under study; (3) using the above estimates, calculate the probability of at least one autochthonous YF case per unit area produced by one single viraemic traveller per unit area arriving from a YF endemic or epidemic sylvatic region at the city studied. We demonstrate that, provided the relative vector competence, here defined as the capacity to being infected and disseminate the virus, of Ae. aegypti is greater than 0.7 (with respect to dengue), one infected traveller can introduce urban YF in a dengue endemic area. SN - 1469-4409 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/29843824/The_risk_of_urban_yellow_fever_resurgence_in_Aedes_infested_American_cities_ L2 - https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0950268818001334/type/journal_article DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -