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Trends of reported human brucellosis cases in mainland China from 2007 to 2017: an exponential smoothing time series analysis.
Environ Health Prev Med. 2018 Jun 19; 23(1):23.EH

Abstract

BACKGROUND

The main objective of this study was to describe the temporal distribution of monthly reported human brucellosis cases in mainland China and develop an appropriate time series model for short-term extrapolation forecast.

METHODS

Surveillance data of the monthly reported human brucellosis cases occurring from April 1, 2007, to March 31, 2017, in mainland China were obtained. The spectrum analysis was first adopted to find the cyclic and seasonal features, the existence of the seasonality and trend was determined by exponential smoothing method and the seasonal-trend decomposition. The candidate models of exponential smoothing included the additive model and multiplicative model; R2 was selected as the indicator for the selection of candidate model, and the stability of the model was verified by adjusting the training data and test data set. Finally, the extrapolations of monthly incident human brucellosis cases in 2017 were made.

RESULTS

From April 1, 2007, to March 31, 2017, a total of 435,108 cases of Brucellosis occurred in mainland China were reported, with an average of 3626 cases per month and a standard deviation of 1834 cases. The R2 of the exponential smoothing method that based on additive model increased steadily from 0.927 to 0.949 with the increase of the data volume. Ten of 12 actual values fell in the confidence interval of predicted value.

CONCLUSIONS

Human brucellosis cases peaked during the months from March to August in mainland China, with clear seasonality. The exponential smoothing based on the additive model method could be effectively used in the time series analysis of human brucellosis in China. Control methods, such as vaccination, quarantine, elimination of infected animals, and good hygiene within the production cycle, should be strengthened with paying more attention to the seasonality. Further research is warranted to explore the drivers behind the seasonality.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, China.Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, China.Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, China. dshuang@cmu.edu.cn. Department of Mathematics, School of Fundamental Sciences, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, China. dshuang@cmu.edu.cn.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

29921215

Citation

Guan, Peng, et al. "Trends of Reported Human Brucellosis Cases in Mainland China From 2007 to 2017: an Exponential Smoothing Time Series Analysis." Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine, vol. 23, no. 1, 2018, p. 23.
Guan P, Wu W, Huang D. Trends of reported human brucellosis cases in mainland China from 2007 to 2017: an exponential smoothing time series analysis. Environ Health Prev Med. 2018;23(1):23.
Guan, P., Wu, W., & Huang, D. (2018). Trends of reported human brucellosis cases in mainland China from 2007 to 2017: an exponential smoothing time series analysis. Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine, 23(1), 23. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12199-018-0712-5
Guan P, Wu W, Huang D. Trends of Reported Human Brucellosis Cases in Mainland China From 2007 to 2017: an Exponential Smoothing Time Series Analysis. Environ Health Prev Med. 2018 Jun 19;23(1):23. PubMed PMID: 29921215.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Trends of reported human brucellosis cases in mainland China from 2007 to 2017: an exponential smoothing time series analysis. AU - Guan,Peng, AU - Wu,Wei, AU - Huang,Desheng, Y1 - 2018/06/19/ PY - 2018/03/13/received PY - 2018/05/29/accepted PY - 2018/6/21/entrez PY - 2018/6/21/pubmed PY - 2018/11/28/medline KW - Exponential smoothing method KW - Human brucellosis KW - Time series analysis SP - 23 EP - 23 JF - Environmental health and preventive medicine JO - Environ Health Prev Med VL - 23 IS - 1 N2 - BACKGROUND: The main objective of this study was to describe the temporal distribution of monthly reported human brucellosis cases in mainland China and develop an appropriate time series model for short-term extrapolation forecast. METHODS: Surveillance data of the monthly reported human brucellosis cases occurring from April 1, 2007, to March 31, 2017, in mainland China were obtained. The spectrum analysis was first adopted to find the cyclic and seasonal features, the existence of the seasonality and trend was determined by exponential smoothing method and the seasonal-trend decomposition. The candidate models of exponential smoothing included the additive model and multiplicative model; R2 was selected as the indicator for the selection of candidate model, and the stability of the model was verified by adjusting the training data and test data set. Finally, the extrapolations of monthly incident human brucellosis cases in 2017 were made. RESULTS: From April 1, 2007, to March 31, 2017, a total of 435,108 cases of Brucellosis occurred in mainland China were reported, with an average of 3626 cases per month and a standard deviation of 1834 cases. The R2 of the exponential smoothing method that based on additive model increased steadily from 0.927 to 0.949 with the increase of the data volume. Ten of 12 actual values fell in the confidence interval of predicted value. CONCLUSIONS: Human brucellosis cases peaked during the months from March to August in mainland China, with clear seasonality. The exponential smoothing based on the additive model method could be effectively used in the time series analysis of human brucellosis in China. Control methods, such as vaccination, quarantine, elimination of infected animals, and good hygiene within the production cycle, should be strengthened with paying more attention to the seasonality. Further research is warranted to explore the drivers behind the seasonality. SN - 1347-4715 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/29921215/Trends_of_reported_human_brucellosis_cases_in_mainland_China_from_2007_to_2017:_an_exponential_smoothing_time_series_analysis_ L2 - https://environhealthprevmed.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12199-018-0712-5 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -