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Spatial-temporal characteristics and the epidemiology of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome from 2007 to 2016 in Zhejiang Province, China.
Sci Rep. 2018 07 06; 8(1):10244.SR

Abstract

Zhejiang Province is one of the six provinces in China that has the highest incidence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). Data on HFRS cases in Zhejiang Province from January 2007 to July 2017 were obtained from the China Information Network System of Disease Prevention and Control. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to observe the trend of the incidence rate of HFRS. The monthly incidence rate was predicted by autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed to detect geographic clusters. A multivariate time series model was employed to analyze heterogeneous transmission of HFRS. There were a total of 4,836 HFRS cases, with 15 fatal cases reported in Zhejiang Province, China in the last decade. Results show that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the modelling performance and the forecasting performance of the ARIMA model were 27.53% and 16.29%, respectively. Male farmers and middle-aged patients account for the majority of the patient population. There were 54 high-high clusters and 1 high-low cluster identified at the county level. The random effect variance of the autoregressive component is 0.33; the spatio-temporal component is 1.30; and the endemic component is 2.45. According to the results, there was obvious spatial heterogeneity in the endemic component and spatio-temporal component but little spatial heterogeneity in the autoregressive component. A significant decreasing trend in the incidence rate was identified, and obvious clusters were discovered. Spatial heterogeneity in the factors driving HFRS transmission was discovered, which suggested that a targeted preventive effort should be considered in different districts based on their own main factors that contribute to the epidemics.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Zhejiang Province Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China. Key Laboratory for Vaccine, Prevention and Control of Infectious Disease of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China.Zhejiang Province Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China.Hangzhou Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China.Zhejiang Province Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China.Zhejiang Province Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China.Zhejiang Province Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China.Zhejiang Province Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China.Zhejiang Province Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China. hchwu@cdc.zj.cn. Key Laboratory for Vaccine, Prevention and Control of Infectious Disease of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China. hchwu@cdc.zj.cn.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

29980717

Citation

Wu, Haocheng, et al. "Spatial-temporal Characteristics and the Epidemiology of Haemorrhagic Fever With Renal Syndrome From 2007 to 2016 in Zhejiang Province, China." Scientific Reports, vol. 8, no. 1, 2018, p. 10244.
Wu H, Wang X, Xue M, et al. Spatial-temporal characteristics and the epidemiology of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome from 2007 to 2016 in Zhejiang Province, China. Sci Rep. 2018;8(1):10244.
Wu, H., Wang, X., Xue, M., Wu, C., Lu, Q., Ding, Z., Zhai, Y., & Lin, J. (2018). Spatial-temporal characteristics and the epidemiology of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome from 2007 to 2016 in Zhejiang Province, China. Scientific Reports, 8(1), 10244. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-28610-8
Wu H, et al. Spatial-temporal Characteristics and the Epidemiology of Haemorrhagic Fever With Renal Syndrome From 2007 to 2016 in Zhejiang Province, China. Sci Rep. 2018 07 6;8(1):10244. PubMed PMID: 29980717.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Spatial-temporal characteristics and the epidemiology of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome from 2007 to 2016 in Zhejiang Province, China. AU - Wu,Haocheng, AU - Wang,XinYi, AU - Xue,Ming, AU - Wu,Chen, AU - Lu,Qinbao, AU - Ding,Zheyuan, AU - Zhai,Yujia, AU - Lin,Junfen, Y1 - 2018/07/06/ PY - 2017/12/18/received PY - 2018/06/26/accepted PY - 2018/7/8/entrez PY - 2018/7/8/pubmed PY - 2019/11/26/medline SP - 10244 EP - 10244 JF - Scientific reports JO - Sci Rep VL - 8 IS - 1 N2 - Zhejiang Province is one of the six provinces in China that has the highest incidence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). Data on HFRS cases in Zhejiang Province from January 2007 to July 2017 were obtained from the China Information Network System of Disease Prevention and Control. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to observe the trend of the incidence rate of HFRS. The monthly incidence rate was predicted by autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed to detect geographic clusters. A multivariate time series model was employed to analyze heterogeneous transmission of HFRS. There were a total of 4,836 HFRS cases, with 15 fatal cases reported in Zhejiang Province, China in the last decade. Results show that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the modelling performance and the forecasting performance of the ARIMA model were 27.53% and 16.29%, respectively. Male farmers and middle-aged patients account for the majority of the patient population. There were 54 high-high clusters and 1 high-low cluster identified at the county level. The random effect variance of the autoregressive component is 0.33; the spatio-temporal component is 1.30; and the endemic component is 2.45. According to the results, there was obvious spatial heterogeneity in the endemic component and spatio-temporal component but little spatial heterogeneity in the autoregressive component. A significant decreasing trend in the incidence rate was identified, and obvious clusters were discovered. Spatial heterogeneity in the factors driving HFRS transmission was discovered, which suggested that a targeted preventive effort should be considered in different districts based on their own main factors that contribute to the epidemics. SN - 2045-2322 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/29980717/Spatial_temporal_characteristics_and_the_epidemiology_of_haemorrhagic_fever_with_renal_syndrome_from_2007_to_2016_in_Zhejiang_Province_China_ L2 - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-28610-8 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -