Tags

Type your tag names separated by a space and hit enter

Epidemiological dynamic modeling of human papillomavirus-related diseases to assess vaccination strategies in Argentina.
Medicina (B Aires) 2018; 78(5):315-328M

Abstract

Our objective was to develop and test a dynamic simulation model of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related diseases to assess rational vaccination strategies in Argentina. A dynamic stochastic transmission model for hetero- and homosexual transmission of HPV oncogenic and low-risk oncogenic types among females and males was developed. The model included HPV transmission and vaccination, the natural history of HPV-related diseases, disease outcomes, and cervical cancer screening. Considering all cervical cancers, covered or not by the current quadrivalent vaccine, the existing coverage rate would lead to 60% reduction in the global incidence of cervical cancer at 25 years, and to 79% at 50 years. Isolated current female vaccination without a screening program would need around 100 years to eliminate cervical cancer from the local population. Current coverage rate would lead to 59% reduction of vulvar cancer, 76% of vaginal cancer, 85% of anal cancer, and 87% of oropharyngeal cancer, estimated over a 25-year time prospect. Female HPV vaccination within the context of current cervical cancer screening should reach a minimum long-term mean coverage of 60% of girls, receiving at least a two-dose vaccine schedule, to significantly reduce or virtually eliminate cervical cancer at 50 years. Including vaccination to boys to improve herd immunity did not influence the incidence of cervical cancer over time, as long as female coverage did not fall below 50%. Regarding vulvar, vaginal, anal, penile, and some oropharyngeal cancers, current girls-only based vaccination could virtually eliminate these cancer types after 35-40 years, both in women and men.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Bioestadística, Facultad de Ciencias Biomédicas, Universidad Austral, Buenos Aires, Argentina. E-mail: raborracci@gmail.com.Hospital de Niños Ricardo Gutiérrez, Buenos Aires, Argentina.Departmento de Pediatría, Hospital Alemán, Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

30285924

Citation

Borracci, Raúl A., et al. "Epidemiological Dynamic Modeling of Human Papillomavirus-related Diseases to Assess Vaccination Strategies in Argentina." Medicina, vol. 78, no. 5, 2018, pp. 315-328.
Borracci RA, Segal SV, Méndez JH. Epidemiological dynamic modeling of human papillomavirus-related diseases to assess vaccination strategies in Argentina. Medicina (B Aires). 2018;78(5):315-328.
Borracci, R. A., Segal, S. V., & Méndez, J. H. (2018). Epidemiological dynamic modeling of human papillomavirus-related diseases to assess vaccination strategies in Argentina. Medicina, 78(5), pp. 315-328.
Borracci RA, Segal SV, Méndez JH. Epidemiological Dynamic Modeling of Human Papillomavirus-related Diseases to Assess Vaccination Strategies in Argentina. Medicina (B Aires). 2018;78(5):315-328. PubMed PMID: 30285924.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Epidemiological dynamic modeling of human papillomavirus-related diseases to assess vaccination strategies in Argentina. AU - Borracci,Raúl A, AU - Segal,Silvia V, AU - Méndez,José H, PY - 2018/10/5/entrez PY - 2018/10/5/pubmed PY - 2019/9/4/medline KW - cancer KW - epidemiology KW - human papillomavirus KW - mathematical model KW - vaccines SP - 315 EP - 328 JF - Medicina JO - Medicina (B Aires) VL - 78 IS - 5 N2 - Our objective was to develop and test a dynamic simulation model of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related diseases to assess rational vaccination strategies in Argentina. A dynamic stochastic transmission model for hetero- and homosexual transmission of HPV oncogenic and low-risk oncogenic types among females and males was developed. The model included HPV transmission and vaccination, the natural history of HPV-related diseases, disease outcomes, and cervical cancer screening. Considering all cervical cancers, covered or not by the current quadrivalent vaccine, the existing coverage rate would lead to 60% reduction in the global incidence of cervical cancer at 25 years, and to 79% at 50 years. Isolated current female vaccination without a screening program would need around 100 years to eliminate cervical cancer from the local population. Current coverage rate would lead to 59% reduction of vulvar cancer, 76% of vaginal cancer, 85% of anal cancer, and 87% of oropharyngeal cancer, estimated over a 25-year time prospect. Female HPV vaccination within the context of current cervical cancer screening should reach a minimum long-term mean coverage of 60% of girls, receiving at least a two-dose vaccine schedule, to significantly reduce or virtually eliminate cervical cancer at 50 years. Including vaccination to boys to improve herd immunity did not influence the incidence of cervical cancer over time, as long as female coverage did not fall below 50%. Regarding vulvar, vaginal, anal, penile, and some oropharyngeal cancers, current girls-only based vaccination could virtually eliminate these cancer types after 35-40 years, both in women and men. SN - 0025-7680 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/30285924/Epidemiological_dynamic_modeling_of_human_papillomavirus_related_diseases_to_assess_vaccination_strategies_in_Argentina_ L2 - http://www.medicinabuenosaires.com/PMID/30285924.pdf DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -