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High probability areas for ASF infection in China along the Russian and Korean borders.
Transbound Emerg Dis 2019; 66(2):852-864TE

Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) is a transcontinental, contagious, fatal virus disease of pig with devastating socioeconomic impacts. Interaction between infected wild boar and domestic pig may spread the virus. The disease is spreading fast from the west of Eurasia towards ASF-free China. Consequently, prediction of the distribution of ASF along the Sino-Russian-Korean borders is urgent. Our area of interest is Northeast China. The reported ASF-locations in 11 contiguous countries from the Baltic to the Russian Federation were extracted from the archive of the World Organization for Animal Health from July 19, 2007 to March 27, 2017. The locational records of the wild boar were obtained from literature. The environmental predictor variables were downloaded from the WorldClim website. Spatial rarefication and pair-wise geographic distance comparison were applied to minimize spatial autocorrelation of presence points. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to minimize multi-collinearity among predictor variables. We selected the maximum entropy algorithm for spatial modelling of ASF and wild boar separately, combined the wild boar prediction with the domestic pig census in a single map of suids and overlaid the ASF with the suids map. The accuracy of the models was assessed by the AUC. PCA delivered five components accounting for 95.7% of the variance. Spatial autocorrelation was shown to be insignificant for both ASF and wild boar records. The spatial models showed high mean AUC (0.92 and 0.97) combined with low standard deviations (0.003 and 0.006) for ASF and wild boar, respectively. The overlay of the ASF and suids maps suggests that a relatively short sector of the Sino-Russian border has a high probability entry point of ASF at current conditions. Two sectors of the Sino-Korean border present an elevated risk.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Center of Conservation Medicine & Ecological Safety, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, Heilongjiang province, China. College of Wildlife Resource, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, Heilongjiang province, China.Center of Conservation Medicine & Ecological Safety, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, Heilongjiang province, China. Department of Geography, Geoinformatics & Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, Gauteng Province, South Africa.Changbai Mountain Academy of Sciences, Antu, Jilin province, China.Center of Conservation Medicine & Ecological Safety, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, Heilongjiang province, China. College of Wildlife Resource, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, Heilongjiang province, China.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article

Language

eng

PubMed ID

30520567

Citation

Fekede, Regassa Joka, et al. "High Probability Areas for ASF Infection in China Along the Russian and Korean Borders." Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, vol. 66, no. 2, 2019, pp. 852-864.
Fekede RJ, van Gils H, Huang L, et al. High probability areas for ASF infection in China along the Russian and Korean borders. Transbound Emerg Dis. 2019;66(2):852-864.
Fekede, R. J., van Gils, H., Huang, L., & Wang, X. (2019). High probability areas for ASF infection in China along the Russian and Korean borders. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 66(2), pp. 852-864. doi:10.1111/tbed.13094.
Fekede RJ, et al. High Probability Areas for ASF Infection in China Along the Russian and Korean Borders. Transbound Emerg Dis. 2019;66(2):852-864. PubMed PMID: 30520567.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - High probability areas for ASF infection in China along the Russian and Korean borders. AU - Fekede,Regassa Joka, AU - van Gils,Hein, AU - Huang,LiYa, AU - Wang,XiaoLong, Y1 - 2019/01/10/ PY - 2018/07/02/received PY - 2018/10/18/revised PY - 2018/11/24/accepted PY - 2018/12/7/pubmed PY - 2019/4/20/medline PY - 2018/12/7/entrez KW - African swine fever KW - climate variables KW - maximum entropy KW - spatial modeling KW - wild boar SP - 852 EP - 864 JF - Transboundary and emerging diseases JO - Transbound Emerg Dis VL - 66 IS - 2 N2 - African swine fever (ASF) is a transcontinental, contagious, fatal virus disease of pig with devastating socioeconomic impacts. Interaction between infected wild boar and domestic pig may spread the virus. The disease is spreading fast from the west of Eurasia towards ASF-free China. Consequently, prediction of the distribution of ASF along the Sino-Russian-Korean borders is urgent. Our area of interest is Northeast China. The reported ASF-locations in 11 contiguous countries from the Baltic to the Russian Federation were extracted from the archive of the World Organization for Animal Health from July 19, 2007 to March 27, 2017. The locational records of the wild boar were obtained from literature. The environmental predictor variables were downloaded from the WorldClim website. Spatial rarefication and pair-wise geographic distance comparison were applied to minimize spatial autocorrelation of presence points. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to minimize multi-collinearity among predictor variables. We selected the maximum entropy algorithm for spatial modelling of ASF and wild boar separately, combined the wild boar prediction with the domestic pig census in a single map of suids and overlaid the ASF with the suids map. The accuracy of the models was assessed by the AUC. PCA delivered five components accounting for 95.7% of the variance. Spatial autocorrelation was shown to be insignificant for both ASF and wild boar records. The spatial models showed high mean AUC (0.92 and 0.97) combined with low standard deviations (0.003 and 0.006) for ASF and wild boar, respectively. The overlay of the ASF and suids maps suggests that a relatively short sector of the Sino-Russian border has a high probability entry point of ASF at current conditions. Two sectors of the Sino-Korean border present an elevated risk. SN - 1865-1682 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/30520567/High_probability_areas_for_ASF_infection_in_China_along_the_Russian_and_Korean_borders_ L2 - https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.13094 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -