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Application of a combined model with seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and support vector regression in forecasting hand-foot-mouth disease incidence in Wuhan, China.
Medicine (Baltimore). 2019 Feb; 98(6):e14195.M

Abstract

Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is a serious public health problem with increasing cases and substantial financial burden in China, especially in Wuhan city. Hence, there is an urgent need to construct a model to predict the incidence of HFMD that could make the prevention and control of this disease more effective.The incidence data of HFMD of Wuhan city from January 2009 to December 2016 were used to fit a combined model with seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and support vector regression (SVR) model. Then, the SARIMA-SVR hybrid model was constructed. Subsequently, the fitted SARIMA-SVR hybrid model was applied to obtain the fitted HFMD incidence from 2009 to 2016. Finally, the fitted SARIMA-SVR hybrid model was used to forecast the incidence of HFMD of the year 2017. To assess the validity of the model, the mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) between the actual values and predicted values of HFMD incidence (2017) were calculated.From 2009 to 2017, a total of 107636 HFMD cases were reported in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, and the male-to-female ratio is 1.60:1. The age group of 0 to 5 years old accounts for 95.06% of all reported cases and scattered children made up the large proportion (accounted for 56.65%). There were 2 epidemic peaks, from April to July and September to December, respectively, with an emphasis on the former. High-prevalence areas mainly emerge in Dongxihu District, Jiangxia District, and Hongshan District. SARIMA (1,0,1)(0,0,2)[12] is the optimal model given with a minimum Akaike information criterion (AIC) (700.71), then SVR model was constructed by using the optimum parameter (C = 100000, =0.00001, =0.01). The forecasted incidences of single SARIMA model and SARIMA-SVR hybrid model from January to December 2017 match the actual data well. The single SARIMA model shows poor performance with large MSE and MAPE values in comparison to SARIMA-SVR hybrid model.The SARIMA-SVR hybrid model in this study showed that accurate forecasting of the HFMD incidence is possible. It is a potential decision supportive tool for controlling HFMD in Wuhan, China.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Wuhan Centers for Disease Prevention and Control.Center for Translational Medicine, Tianyou Hospital, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei.National Research Institute for Health and Family Planning. Graduate School of Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.Wuhan Centers for Disease Prevention and Control.Wuhan Centers for Disease Prevention and Control.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Observational Study

Language

eng

PubMed ID

30732135

Citation

Zou, Jiao-Jiao, et al. "Application of a Combined Model With Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Support Vector Regression in Forecasting Hand-foot-mouth Disease Incidence in Wuhan, China." Medicine, vol. 98, no. 6, 2019, pp. e14195.
Zou JJ, Jiang GF, Xie XX, et al. Application of a combined model with seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and support vector regression in forecasting hand-foot-mouth disease incidence in Wuhan, China. Medicine (Baltimore). 2019;98(6):e14195.
Zou, J. J., Jiang, G. F., Xie, X. X., Huang, J., & Yang, X. B. (2019). Application of a combined model with seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and support vector regression in forecasting hand-foot-mouth disease incidence in Wuhan, China. Medicine, 98(6), e14195. https://doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000014195
Zou JJ, et al. Application of a Combined Model With Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Support Vector Regression in Forecasting Hand-foot-mouth Disease Incidence in Wuhan, China. Medicine (Baltimore). 2019;98(6):e14195. PubMed PMID: 30732135.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Application of a combined model with seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and support vector regression in forecasting hand-foot-mouth disease incidence in Wuhan, China. AU - Zou,Jiao-Jiao, AU - Jiang,Gao-Feng, AU - Xie,Xiao-Xu, AU - Huang,Juan, AU - Yang,Xiao-Bing, PY - 2019/2/9/entrez PY - 2019/2/9/pubmed PY - 2019/2/27/medline SP - e14195 EP - e14195 JF - Medicine JO - Medicine (Baltimore) VL - 98 IS - 6 N2 - Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is a serious public health problem with increasing cases and substantial financial burden in China, especially in Wuhan city. Hence, there is an urgent need to construct a model to predict the incidence of HFMD that could make the prevention and control of this disease more effective.The incidence data of HFMD of Wuhan city from January 2009 to December 2016 were used to fit a combined model with seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and support vector regression (SVR) model. Then, the SARIMA-SVR hybrid model was constructed. Subsequently, the fitted SARIMA-SVR hybrid model was applied to obtain the fitted HFMD incidence from 2009 to 2016. Finally, the fitted SARIMA-SVR hybrid model was used to forecast the incidence of HFMD of the year 2017. To assess the validity of the model, the mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) between the actual values and predicted values of HFMD incidence (2017) were calculated.From 2009 to 2017, a total of 107636 HFMD cases were reported in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, and the male-to-female ratio is 1.60:1. The age group of 0 to 5 years old accounts for 95.06% of all reported cases and scattered children made up the large proportion (accounted for 56.65%). There were 2 epidemic peaks, from April to July and September to December, respectively, with an emphasis on the former. High-prevalence areas mainly emerge in Dongxihu District, Jiangxia District, and Hongshan District. SARIMA (1,0,1)(0,0,2)[12] is the optimal model given with a minimum Akaike information criterion (AIC) (700.71), then SVR model was constructed by using the optimum parameter (C = 100000, =0.00001, =0.01). The forecasted incidences of single SARIMA model and SARIMA-SVR hybrid model from January to December 2017 match the actual data well. The single SARIMA model shows poor performance with large MSE and MAPE values in comparison to SARIMA-SVR hybrid model.The SARIMA-SVR hybrid model in this study showed that accurate forecasting of the HFMD incidence is possible. It is a potential decision supportive tool for controlling HFMD in Wuhan, China. SN - 1536-5964 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/30732135/Application_of_a_combined_model_with_seasonal_autoregressive_integrated_moving_average_and_support_vector_regression_in_forecasting_hand_foot_mouth_disease_incidence_in_Wuhan_China_ L2 - http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000014195 DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -