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Confidence Predictions Affect Performance Confidence and Neural Preparation in Perceptual Decision Making.
Sci Rep. 2019 03 11; 9(1):4031.SR

Abstract

Decisions are usually accompanied by a feeling of being wrong or right - a subjective confidence estimate. But what information is this confidence estimate based on, and what is confidence used for? To answer these questions, research has largely focused on confidence regarding current or past decisions, for example identifying how characteristics of the stimulus affect confidence, how confidence can be used as an internally generated feedback signal, and how communicating confidence can affect group decisions. Here, we report two studies which implemented a novel metacognitive measure: predictions of confidence for future perceptual decisions. Using computational modeling of behaviour and EEG, we established that experience-based confidence predictions are one source of information that affects how confident we are in future decision-making, and that learned confidence-expectations affect neural preparation for future decisions. Results from both studies show that participants develop precise confidence predictions informed by past confidence experience. Notably, our results also show that confidence predictions affect performance confidence rated after a decision is made; this finding supports the proposal that confidence judgments are based on multiple sources of information, including expectations. We found strong support for this link in neural correlates of stimulus preparation and processing. EEG measures of preparatory neural activity (contingent negative variation; CNV) and evidence accumulation (centro-parietal positivity; CPP) show that predicted confidence affects neural preparation for stimulus processing, supporting the proposal that one purpose of confidence judgments may be to learn about performance for future encounters and prepare accordingly.

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Authors+Show Affiliations

Boldt A
Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK. a.boldt@ucl.ac.uk. Department of Psychology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EB, UK. a.boldt@ucl.ac.uk. Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience, University College London, London, WC1N 3AZ, UK. a.boldt@ucl.ac.uk.
Schiffer AM
Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK.
Waszak F
CNRS (Integrative Neuroscience and Cognition Center, UMR 8002), Paris, France. Université Paris Descartes, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France.
Yeung N
Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK.

MeSH

Decision MakingElectroencephalographyEmotionsHumansJudgmentMetacognition

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

30858436

Citation

Boldt, Annika, et al. "Confidence Predictions Affect Performance Confidence and Neural Preparation in Perceptual Decision Making." Scientific Reports, vol. 9, no. 1, 2019, p. 4031.
Boldt A, Schiffer AM, Waszak F, et al. Confidence Predictions Affect Performance Confidence and Neural Preparation in Perceptual Decision Making. Sci Rep. 2019;9(1):4031.
Boldt, A., Schiffer, A. M., Waszak, F., & Yeung, N. (2019). Confidence Predictions Affect Performance Confidence and Neural Preparation in Perceptual Decision Making. Scientific Reports, 9(1), 4031. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-40681-9
Boldt A, et al. Confidence Predictions Affect Performance Confidence and Neural Preparation in Perceptual Decision Making. Sci Rep. 2019 03 11;9(1):4031. PubMed PMID: 30858436.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Confidence Predictions Affect Performance Confidence and Neural Preparation in Perceptual Decision Making. AU - Boldt,Annika, AU - Schiffer,Anne-Marike, AU - Waszak,Florian, AU - Yeung,Nick, Y1 - 2019/03/11/ PY - 2018/04/09/received PY - 2019/02/20/accepted PY - 2019/3/13/entrez PY - 2019/3/13/pubmed PY - 2020/10/2/medline SP - 4031 EP - 4031 JF - Scientific reports JO - Sci Rep VL - 9 IS - 1 N2 - Decisions are usually accompanied by a feeling of being wrong or right - a subjective confidence estimate. But what information is this confidence estimate based on, and what is confidence used for? To answer these questions, research has largely focused on confidence regarding current or past decisions, for example identifying how characteristics of the stimulus affect confidence, how confidence can be used as an internally generated feedback signal, and how communicating confidence can affect group decisions. Here, we report two studies which implemented a novel metacognitive measure: predictions of confidence for future perceptual decisions. Using computational modeling of behaviour and EEG, we established that experience-based confidence predictions are one source of information that affects how confident we are in future decision-making, and that learned confidence-expectations affect neural preparation for future decisions. Results from both studies show that participants develop precise confidence predictions informed by past confidence experience. Notably, our results also show that confidence predictions affect performance confidence rated after a decision is made; this finding supports the proposal that confidence judgments are based on multiple sources of information, including expectations. We found strong support for this link in neural correlates of stimulus preparation and processing. EEG measures of preparatory neural activity (contingent negative variation; CNV) and evidence accumulation (centro-parietal positivity; CPP) show that predicted confidence affects neural preparation for stimulus processing, supporting the proposal that one purpose of confidence judgments may be to learn about performance for future encounters and prepare accordingly. SN - 2045-2322 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/30858436/Confidence_Predictions_Affect_Performance_Confidence_and_Neural_Preparation_in_Perceptual_Decision_Making_ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -