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Time-series modelling and forecasting of hand, foot and mouth disease cases in China from 2008 to 2018.
Epidemiol Infect. 2019 01; 147:e82.EI

Abstract

Seasonal autoregressive-integrated moving average (SARIMA) has been widely used to model and forecast incidence of infectious diseases in time-series analysis. This study aimed to model and forecast monthly cases of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in China. Monthly incidence HFMD cases in China from May 2008 to August 2018 were analysed with the SARIMA model. A seasonal variation of HFMD incidence was found from May 2008 to August 2018 in China, with a predominant peak from April to July and a trough from January to March. In addition, the annual peak occurred periodically with a large annual peak followed by a relatively small annual peak. A SARIMA model of SARIMA (1, 1, 2) (0, 1, 1)12 was identified, and the mean error rate and determination coefficient were 16.86% and 94.27%, respectively. There was an annual periodicity and seasonal variation of HFMD incidence in China, which could be predicted well by a SARIMA (1, 1, 2) (0, 1, 1)12 model.

Authors+Show Affiliations

Department of Infectious Diseases,Kunshan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,Jiangsu Province,China.Department of Infectious Diseases,Kunshan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,Jiangsu Province,China.Department of Infectious Diseases,Kunshan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,Jiangsu Province,China.

Pub Type(s)

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Language

eng

PubMed ID

30868999

Citation

Tian, C W., et al. "Time-series Modelling and Forecasting of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease Cases in China From 2008 to 2018." Epidemiology and Infection, vol. 147, 2019, pp. e82.
Tian CW, Wang H, Luo XM. Time-series modelling and forecasting of hand, foot and mouth disease cases in China from 2008 to 2018. Epidemiol Infect. 2019;147:e82.
Tian, C. W., Wang, H., & Luo, X. M. (2019). Time-series modelling and forecasting of hand, foot and mouth disease cases in China from 2008 to 2018. Epidemiology and Infection, 147, e82. https://doi.org/10.1017/S095026881800362X
Tian CW, Wang H, Luo XM. Time-series Modelling and Forecasting of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease Cases in China From 2008 to 2018. Epidemiol Infect. 2019;147:e82. PubMed PMID: 30868999.
* Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
TY - JOUR T1 - Time-series modelling and forecasting of hand, foot and mouth disease cases in China from 2008 to 2018. AU - Tian,C W, AU - Wang,H, AU - Luo,X M, PY - 2019/3/15/entrez PY - 2019/3/15/pubmed PY - 2020/3/28/medline KW - Hand KW - foot and mouth disease KW - monthly incidence KW - seasonal autoregressive-integrated moving average model SP - e82 EP - e82 JF - Epidemiology and infection JO - Epidemiol. Infect. VL - 147 N2 - Seasonal autoregressive-integrated moving average (SARIMA) has been widely used to model and forecast incidence of infectious diseases in time-series analysis. This study aimed to model and forecast monthly cases of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in China. Monthly incidence HFMD cases in China from May 2008 to August 2018 were analysed with the SARIMA model. A seasonal variation of HFMD incidence was found from May 2008 to August 2018 in China, with a predominant peak from April to July and a trough from January to March. In addition, the annual peak occurred periodically with a large annual peak followed by a relatively small annual peak. A SARIMA model of SARIMA (1, 1, 2) (0, 1, 1)12 was identified, and the mean error rate and determination coefficient were 16.86% and 94.27%, respectively. There was an annual periodicity and seasonal variation of HFMD incidence in China, which could be predicted well by a SARIMA (1, 1, 2) (0, 1, 1)12 model. SN - 1469-4409 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/30868999/Time_series_modelling_and_forecasting_of_hand_foot_and_mouth_disease_cases_in_China_from_2008_to_2018_ L2 - https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S095026881800362X/type/journal_article DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -
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