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The general practice nurse workforce: Estimating future supply

Abstract

BACKGROUND

General practice nurses (GPNs) form an important component of the general practice workforce in Australia. Despite this, there is limited research on estimating their future supply. This study aims to estimate the future GPN supply and the impact of a range of policy and non-policy changes on workforce balances.

METHOD

A simulation model of the GPN workforce over the period 2012–25 was developed, with scenario analysis used to assess the effects of policy and non‑policy scenarios.

RESULTS

The baseline scenario estimated a shortage of 814 full-time GPNs by 2025. The non-policy single scenarios all projected shortages by 2025. The worst-case scenario was reduced working hours and best-case scenario was the retention scenario.

DISCUSSION

Over the 13-year period considered, the Australian practice nurse workforce is predicted to move into a position of shortage. Retention and recruitment policies are shown to be effective in addressing these shortages.

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  • Authors+Show Affiliations

    ,

    BEc (Hons), Research Associate, School of Public Health, University of Adelaide, SA

    BA (Hons), MHSM, PhD, Professor and Head, School of Public Health, University of Adelaide, SA. caroline.laurence@adelaide.edu.au

    Source

    Pub Type(s)

    Journal Article
    Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

    Language

    eng

    PubMed ID

    31207678

    Citation

    Heywood, Troy, and Caroline Laurence. "The General Practice Nurse Workforce: Estimating Future Supply." Australian Journal of General Practice, vol. 47, no. 11, 2018, pp. 788-795.
    Heywood T, Laurence C. The general practice nurse workforce: Estimating future supply. Aust J Gen Pract. 2018;47(11):788-795.
    Heywood, T., & Laurence, C. (2018). The general practice nurse workforce: Estimating future supply. Australian Journal of General Practice, 47(11), pp. 788-795.
    Heywood T, Laurence C. The General Practice Nurse Workforce: Estimating Future Supply. Aust J Gen Pract. 2018;47(11):788-795. PubMed PMID: 31207678.
    * Article titles in AMA citation format should be in sentence-case
    TY - JOUR T1 - The general practice nurse workforce: Estimating future supply AU - Heywood,Troy, AU - Laurence,Caroline, PY - 2019/6/18/entrez PY - 2019/6/18/pubmed PY - 2019/6/18/medline SP - 788 EP - 795 JF - Australian journal of general practice JO - Aust J Gen Pract VL - 47 IS - 11 N2 - BACKGROUND: General practice nurses (GPNs) form an important component of the general practice workforce in Australia. Despite this, there is limited research on estimating their future supply. This study aims to estimate the future GPN supply and the impact of a range of policy and non-policy changes on workforce balances. METHOD: A simulation model of the GPN workforce over the period 2012–25 was developed, with scenario analysis used to assess the effects of policy and non‑policy scenarios. RESULTS: The baseline scenario estimated a shortage of 814 full-time GPNs by 2025. The non-policy single scenarios all projected shortages by 2025. The worst-case scenario was reduced working hours and best-case scenario was the retention scenario. DISCUSSION: Over the 13-year period considered, the Australian practice nurse workforce is predicted to move into a position of shortage. Retention and recruitment policies are shown to be effective in addressing these shortages. SN - 2208-7958 UR - https://www.unboundmedicine.com/medline/citation/31207678/The_general_practice_nurse_workforce:_Estimating_future_supply L2 - http://www.racgp.org.au/AJGP/2018/november/the-general-practice-nurse-workforce/ DB - PRIME DP - Unbound Medicine ER -